Tag: Houston Rockets

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Wednesday, April 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Playoffs

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 207 – Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics

The second-highest SK Trend Confidence of the night for NBA is the under on tonight’s game between the Celtics and Pacers. Neither team shot the ball well in Boston’s 84-74 victory in Game 1 on Sunday, and we’re probably going to see more of the same since both teams were solid on the defensive end during the regular season – Indiana ranked third in defensive efficiency while Boston was sixth.

This could also be a game that the Celtics simply run away with, leaving the Pacers in the dust. Indy did fine, in terms of scoring points without Victor Oladipo most the season, but the playoffs are a much different game – especially with Brad Stevens coaching a focused Boston team.

The 207 total that Vegas placed on this game seems to tell the story beforehand, just as the 210.5 total did in Game 1.

[9:40 p.m. EST] Under 214 – Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets

Well, the SK Trend Confidence isn’t liking too many points in the NBA tonight, as the highest grade of the slate belongs to the under in tonight’s game between the Jazz and Rockets. Game 1 of this series wasn’t even close, a 32-point Houston victory, but I wouldn’t expect the same to go down tonight. Utah is incredibly well-coached and plays a very stingy brand of defense. Look for them to make the necessary adjustments and give James Harden & Co. a tougher time than usual scoring the basketball.

Although Game 1 was a much different story, the Jazz did hold the Rockets under 100 points in three of the four regular-season meetings. The only game which Utah did not, Houston scored 102 points.

On a side note, I do think the Jazz cover the 6.5-point spread and possibly, even win outright.

MLB Value Bets

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -128)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-2, 3.32 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 2.16 ERA)

I’m a big fan of taking the Rays when it’s one of their patented “bullpen games.” Reason being, they can play their best hand in most individual matchups, whereas your typical starter could get knocked around for the first few innings. Ryne Stanek will typically go one or two innings and then hand it over to the bullpen that has the seventh-best ERA (3.53) in MLB. Not to mention, Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranks in the top-five of most fancy analytic numbers that bore most people to death – not me.

After a slow start, the Rays’ offense now has at least eight runs in four of the last six games and that should play well against David Hess, who has allowed four homers and seven runs over his last 10 2/3 innings of work. If Hess can’t stay in the game long enough, Tampa Bay will have the benefit of facing Baltimore’s bullpen, which ranks dead-last for ERA (6.96) in the American League this season and second-worst in all of MLB.

The Rays’ -270 moneyline is a bit more than most people would be willing to lay, so going with the 1.5-run line lessens that quite a bit.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

 [7:20 p.m. EST] Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves (-1.5, +118)
ARZ: Zack Godley – R (1-1, 7.41 ERA)
ATL: Kevin Gausman – R (1-1, 2.84 ERA)

The Braves’ offense looks dialed in at the moment, with 44 runs in their last seven games. Tonight’s matchup against Zack Godley is a nice one, considering he has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 17 innings of work. Atlanta’s -160 moneyline matches its second-highest of the season, thus illuminating how much of a great spot they’re in.

Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis are a combined 11-for-26 (.423 avg.) lifetime against Godley. It’s also worth noting that Arizona’s bullpen has the second-worst ERA (6.04) in the National League and fourth-worst in all of MLB.

Kevin Gausman goes for the Braves, and while he didn’t have his best stuff in that last outing against the Mets, this is a guy that is capable of shutting any team down on a given night. I’ll place my faith in a talented pitcher more often than not and feel like he can at least do enough to keep the D-Backs down for most of the night.

Going with the +118 1.5-run line, you’re able to make a small profit, as opposed to shelling out more on the moneyline to earn less.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 9 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 4 *

NBA Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, April 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Be sure to tune in to the NBAyd Show tonight with Gary Ayd of SB Nation. I’ll be on at around 9:20 p.m. EST on sbnationradio.com!

One night after we crowned a champion in college basketball, it’s now time to finish off the final two days of the NBA season. There’s plenty at stake in the Eastern Conference, as the Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat are all fighting for that final playoff spot – and the best part is that they’re all in action tonight. Let’s take a look at who could make a move in the right direction, and who could possibly fall out of the picture.

[7:10 p.m. EST] Charlotte Hornets (-8/-340 ML) at Cleveland Cavaliers – Total: 221

There’s no getting around it – the Charlotte Hornets need this game. Tomorrow night, they’ll take on the Orlando Magic, so it’s imperative for them to take care of business on Tuesday. And the Hornets likely will, as they have won seven of the last 10 games, covering the spread in eight of them.

The highest SK Trend Confidence score (25%) lies within the over in this game, as six of the last eight Cleveland Cavaliers’ games have gone in that direction. It makes sense, with the Cavs in full-on tank mode, they have allowed at least (AT LEAST!) 110 points in each of their nine losses.

[7:10 p.m. EST] Memphis Grizzlies (+10.5/+410 ML) at Detroit Pistons – Total: 209.5

If anyone finds the Detroit Pistons, can someone let them the playoffs are about to start soon? Yikes! The Pistons have completely let a golden opportunity slip right through their hands, losing seven of the last nine games, including four straight. On the other side, the Memphis Grizzlies absolutely know that they have a chance to spoil some plans for the home team. After all, the Grizz have had wins against quality teams like the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder in recent memory.

The highest SK Trend Confidence score (30%) sits with the Grizzlies to win outright on the moneyline in this game. If that’s too much risk to handle, Memphis should easily cover that 10.5-point spread.

[9:40 p.m. EST] Houston Rockets (-2/-128 ML) at Oklahoma City Thunder – Total: 230

Believe it or not, but the Houston Rockets have a chance to grab the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Tonight is their final game of the regular season, and the Rockets are rolling heading into the playoffs with a 20-3 record over the last 23 games. Not to mention, James Harden and the boys have covered the spread in each of the last six games. With this being Houston’s last chance to position itself for playoff seeding, look for them to have an inspirational performance against OKC.

The Rockets’ moneyline win has the highest SK Trend Confidence score (37%) of any scenario in this game tonight.

NBA Betting Preview for Friday, April 5

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Get ready for another exciting night of NBA hoops! The Spread Knowledge top value plays of the night are listed below. However, because they are such heavy favorites on the moneyline, we’re only advising you to take them as an extra caveat to add to your parlays:

  • Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers (-667 ML)
  • New York Knicks at Houston Rockets (-2500 ML)

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 226.5 – Atlanta Hawks (+342 ML) at Orlando Magic

There’s no getting around it, but the Orlando Magic need to win, as they currently sit in the final spot of the Eastern Conference playoff race. This is the final time that Orlando will have a regular season game on its home court, so the level of importance doesn’t even need to be described.

However, the SK value system loves the moneyline number on the Atlanta Hawks, who have been quite pesky down the stretch with outright wins over the 76ers (twice), Bucks and Jazz. Hawks point guard Trae Young is still trying to make one last heroic attempt at winning the NBA Rookie of the Year award and he can certainly make life difficult on the Magic defense.

While it is true that Orlando hit four straight overs, 216 has been the highest total over that stretch. Granted, Atlanta’s NBA-leading pace and lackluster defense are the reasons we see a 226.5 total tonight, but that just lends more optimism that the Hawks come in and pull off the upset win. In fact, two of the three Hawks-Magic matchups have gone under tonight’s total.

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 213 – Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers

These two teams just faced off last Friday and now they’ll do battle once again. The term “battle” is an understatement, as they both have the same record and find themselves jockeying for homecourt advantage in their eventual first-round playoff matchup. The Boston Celtics do hold the head-to-head tiebreaker but a win for the Indiana Pacers would be monumental here.

The one lean the SK value system has is Under 213 points in the game, mainly because of the importance of defense in this matchup, as Indiana ranks third in defensive efficiency and Boston ranks sixth. Not to mention, the two teams just saw each other and will likely have their best defensive efforts on deck.

[10:10 p.m. EST] New Orleans Pelicans (-130) at Phoenix Suns

The SK value system has quite the knack for pointing out these late-season NBA games that have absolutely no meaning whatsoever in the standings. However, the amount of key players the Phoenix Suns are missing is just too large to ignore. Granted, the New Orleans Pelicans will be missing Anthony Davis but that seems like a blip on the radar, consider the Suns are missing Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton and T.J. Warren.

Look for the Pelicans B-team to get the win over the Suns C-team.

[10:40 p.m. EST] Portland Trail Blazers (+236 ML) at Denver Nuggets

In what would be a dazzling upset win, the SK value system loves the Portland Trail Blazers to go on the road and get the outright W over the Denver Nuggets. The Trail Blazers have won 11 of their 13 games while the Nuggets have been a very Jekyll-and-Hyde sort of team, going 3-4 over the last seven. Denver has won each of the previous two meetings versus Portland this season by a combined four points. Not to mention, these two teams will face each other in their next game on Sunday – time for the Trail Blazers to get busy and even the score.

NBA Betting Preview for Wednesday, April 3

NBA Betting Preview for Wednesday, April 3, 2019

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 226 – Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards

Both teams are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, so we should see a very fun and loose style of play from the Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards tonight. After all, both teams (CHI: 26th, WAS: 27th) rank in the bottom-five of the NBA in defensive efficiency. The last two times these teams played the totals were 259 and 246, so the SK value system likes there to be more of the same this evening.

[8:10 p.m. EST] Charlotte Hornets at New Orleans Pelicans (+145 ML)

The Charlotte Hornets are still mathematically alive in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, but the proverbial heart was ripped out of the chest multiple times already on this current West coast trip. SK’s value system loves the Hornets’ suffering to continue, especially with Cody Zeller and Marvin Williams officially ruled out. Charlotte’s key to suffering has been its defense, which has allowed an average of 125.7 points per game during this current road trip. Not to mention, the Hornets are 2-6 in their last eight road games, with one of those wins coming in Toronto on a bizarre half-court shot from Jeremy Lamb at the buzzer.

[10:40 p.m. EST] Under 229 – Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers (-115 ML)

The SK value system has a nice double-play to cap off the evening, giving the advantage to the LA Clippers and the total going under 229 points. The Houston Rockets just put up a nice performance in Sacramento last night so there could be some level of fatigue for them here in the final month of the regular season. While the Rockets want to clinch the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, the Clippers are trying to jump up a few spots and possibly sneak into the No. 4 seed for home-court advantage in the first round. The Clippers have won each of their two meetings against the Rockets this season.

There’s plenty of motivation for Houston and LA to get the win, so we should see a valiant effort on the defensive end from both sides. After all, 16 of the Rockets’ last 21 games have gone under the total and they do run the NBA’s fifth-slowest tempo. On the back-end of a back-to-back, they could very well take even more time on their possessions.

NBA Betting Preview for Tuesday, April 2

Be sure to check out Spread Knowledge writer Al Walsh on SB Nation’s NBAyd with Gary Ayd tonight at 9:25 p.m. EST.

NBA Betting Preview for Tuesday, April 2

Houston Rockets (-5/-215 ML) at Sacramento Kings – Total: 226

The Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings just squared off three days ago, with the Rockets taking the upper hand, 119-108. Typically, in these home-and-home sets, the team that lost the front-end usually comes back to win the back-end.

Not so fast, my friends!

The SK system is a big fan of the Rockets, who are looking to propel themselves back up to the No. 3 seed of the Western Conference playoff picture momentarily. After all, they are 9-1 against the Kings over the last 10 meetings. Not only that but Houston’s star player, James Harden, will look to make one of his last gasps at the NBA’s MVP award after Giannis Antetokounmpo had another memorable performance against the Brooklyn Nets last night.

SK’s system also likes the total to go under 226, as 16 of Houston’s 20 games have suffered that same fate since the All-Star break – the same can be said about Sacramento, which has done the same in five of its last seven. The Kings are tied for the second-fastest pace in the NBA, but Harden and the Rockets will slow it down with the league’s fifth-slowest tempo.

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors – Total: 219.5

The Golden State Warriors had a long string of games hitting under the total during March, but this game, which could ultimately determine the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, should have them clicking on all cylinders against the Denver Nuggets. Both teams (GS: #1, DEN: #8) find themselves in the Top-10 of the league’s offensive efficiency ranking, and two of the three games between the teams have gone well over the 219.5 total we’ll see tonight. While Denver has struggled a bit on offense of late, we’ll look for Golden State to lead the way and take us to the promised land. After all, the Warriors have netted at least 120 points in three of their last four games.

College Basketball and NBA Betting Preview for Saturday, March 30

It’s Saturday night and I know that you’re feeling alright! There are two pivotal games in the Elite 8 tonight for college basketball but don’t you forget about those professional ballplayers now, ya hear? Plenty of matchups on the Saturday docket with playoff implications on the line. Let’s take a look at what the Spread Knowledge system likes above all…

By the way, don’t forget to sign up for our 🚨Live Pick Alerts🚨 sent directly via or email or text!

COLLEGE BASKETBALL BETTING PREVIEW

[6:10 p.m. EST] Gonzaga (-4) vs. Texas Tech

The Gonzaga Bulldogs bring the nation’s top offensive efficiency rating into today’s Elite 8 matchup and the Texas Tech Red Raiders will be waiting there with the nation’s top defensive efficiency rating. Defense might win championships, but the SK system doesn’t think it’ll win this game between the two heavyweights. This is Gonzaga’s third trip to the Elite 9 in the last five seasons and they have a defense that can be quite daunting at times as well. All in all, that will be the difference in the Bulldogs getting the win and covering the spread.

[8:50 p.m. EST] Virginia (-4.5) vs. Purdue

Defense must be the theme of the evening as UVA Cavaliers take on the Purdue Boilermakers. The SK system likes UVA to overcome its first-round misfortunes from last season and move on to the Final Four. The Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of only 52 points per game during the NCAA Tournament and tonight’s main task will be suffocating Purdue’s Carsen Edwards and Ryan Cline. Look for UVA to get the job done and do so in convincing fashion.

NBA BETTING PREVIEW

[6:10 p.m. EST] Under 228 – Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets (-526 ML)

The SK system gives us one of its famous double-dips again with the Houston Rockets and under the total of 228. These Rockets are absolutely rolling at the moment, winning 15 of their last 18 games, and will have a chance to move up to the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. As for the under in this game – well, you’re in good hands there. Houston games have gone under the total in 15 of its last 19, and as the Rockets start inching toward the playoffs, defense is the one thing they’ll be focusing on more than anything. Look for the Rockets to win this game while keeping the Kings off the scoreboard.

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 204.5 – Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers

This is a big game for both sides here as the Orlando Magic hit the road to take on the Indiana Pacers. Th Magic are a half-game behind the Miami Heat for the No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference, while the Pacers would love to crawl back to the No. 4 spot with a win and a Boston Celtics’ loss tonight. Magic games have gone under the total in 12 of the last 16 games, while the Pacers played a tough game in Boston last night. Look for the pace to be slowed down a bit and a lot of energy put on the defensive end for both sides in such an important game.

NBA and NCAAM Betting Preview for Thursday, March 28

Over the next few days, Spread Knowledge will combine the two levels of hoops into one article. It’s all about time consumption in these trying times, folks. The NBA usually only has a few games on the Thursday night schedule but, for whatever reason, they’re trying to go head-to-head against the NCAA Tournament. And this sucks because the NBA game has some excellent matchups tonight with playoff positioning at the forefront. Nonetheless, it’s a great night to make a butt groove in your favorite seat in the house.

Let’s take a look at the top hoops picks from the Spread Knowledge system this evening…

NBA BETTING PREVIEW

[8:05 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Clippers (-9/+342 ML) at Milwaukee Bucks

It’s definitely a longshot but there’s some nice value in taking the LA Clippers, who have won 11 of their last 12 games. The Milwaukee Bucks have won four of their last five, but find themselves in a peculiar spot heading into the NBA Playoffs. Milwaukee owns a four-game lead for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, but injuries to Malcolm Brogdon, Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic may force Bucks head coach Mike Budenholzer to be somewhat judicious with the minutes of his key players. Giannis Antetokounmpo has already stated that he wants no part of this limitation, but it’s important to remember that the playoffs are what really matters here. The Clippers are safely in the playoffs, but they’re not too far away from grabbing home-court advantage for the first round. You could make the argument that LA has more at stake tonight and a nine-point spread is somewhat disrespectful to a team as talented as this.

The Spread Knowledge system likes LA on the moneyline, but you could also take the easier route and bet them at +9.

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 217 – Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets (-208)

The Houston Rockets have defeated the Denver Nuggets in nine of their last 10 meetings, and the Spread Knowledge system likes them to make it 10 of 11. Houston still has an outside chance of getting the two-seed in the Western Conference, but it’ll need a bit of a collapse from Denver down the stretch – and that doesn’t seem likely at this point. Still, the Rockets are clamoring to get that three-seed and avoid the Golden State Warriors before the Western Conference Finals.

Not only does the SK system like the Rockets in this game tonight, but it is also quite fond of the under on the total. And for good reason, as Houston games have gone under the total in 11 of the last 13 while Denver games have suffered the same fate in 16 of its last 19.

NCAAM BETTING PREVIEW

[7:29 p.m. EST] Tennessee (-2/-149 ML) vs. Purdue – played in Louisville, KY

We’re at the point in the college basketball season where everyone has put together a mini-winning streak, so we have to rely on the numbers and matchups. This is where the Tennessee Volunteers should excel, as they have the advantage in point differential and field goal percentage. Not only that, but Tennessee is just a more athletic team than the Purdue Boilermakers, who have lost in the Sweet 16 round in each of their last two seasons. The Spread Knowledge system endears the Vols on the moneyline in this one, but you could risk less money if you take them with the two-point spread.

[9:39 p.m. EST] Michigan (-1.5/-135 ML) vs. Texas Tech – played in Anaheim, CA

The Michigan Wolverines have been just fine… you know, as long as they’re not playing their rival Michigan State Spartans. In fact, the Wolverines are 8-3 in their last 11 games, with the only three losses coming to those pesky Spartans. Speaking of pesky, that’s exactly what Michigan will be facing in the Texas Tech Red Raiders tonight, who are a mirror image of the tough defensive-minded unit – in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, Texas Tech is No. 1 and Michigan is No. 2. This is probably why the spread is so low (in favor of Michigan by 1.5 points), but nonetheless, the Spread Knowledge system is in favor of Michigan, who has plenty of experience in playing these high-profile games over the last few seasons.

[9:57 p.m. EST] Oregon (+8.5/+330 ML) vs. Virginia – played in Louisville, KY

These Oregon Ducks are on one helluva run right now, winning 10 straight games en route to landing here in the Sweet 16 against the Virginia Cavaliers. We all know UVA’s stigma – defense, defense, defense, and the Ducks will have to overcome one of the toughest units in the country in order to move on to the Elite 8. It is interesting, though, as Oregon has scored at least 70 points in 10 of its last 11 games, while UVA hasn’t allowed 70 points in each of its last 12 games. Something has to give, and the Spread Knowledge system is quacking in jubilation, going with the Ducks for the upset tonight!

DON’T FORGET ABOUT MLB!!!

We unleashed the MLB portion of the SK Product today and it already produced a win on the over in the Baltimore Orioles-New York Yankees game — depending on what your total was. Some had it at 8.5, some had it at 9. If not, it was a push — no loss of money there.

NBA Preview for Tuesday, March 26

We’ve got a 10-game slate on the NBA docket with many of the teams still fighting for playoff positioning. The most crucial game of the night takes place down in the Sunshine State as the Miami Heat will host the Orlando Magic in a matchup of teams sitting in the eighth and ninth place of the Eastern Conference. If you’re looking for pure entertainment, look no further than the battle of MVP candidates in the Houston Rockets-Milwaukee Bucks game. Later on, in the Mile High City, the Detroit Pistons will look to hold onto their playoff lives as they’ll face the Denver Nuggets.

Let’s take a look at what the Spread Knowledge system likes tonight…

(8:00 p.m. EST) Houston Rockets (+4/+148 ML) at Milwaukee Bucks – Total: 227

We’ll have a matchup of MVP hopefuls tonight as James Harden and the Houston Rockets hit the road to face Giannis Antetokounmpo and his Milwaukee Bucks on TNT. The Rockets have been rolling, winning 14 of their last 16 games, while the Bucks have been somewhat middling over their last 10 games. Part of the reason for that is that Milwaukee’s depth taking some big hits lately with injuries to Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol. Because of that, our system likes Houston to grab the win tonight with the total going under. The Rockets are tied for the league’s fourth-slowest pace, so that should help limit what the Bucks do on offense.

(8:00 p.m. EST) Los Angeles Clippers (-2/-128 ML) at Minnesota Timberwolves – Total: 230

The Los Angeles Clippers, winners in 10 of their last 11, hit the road to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have already been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. With the season-ending injury to Jusuf Nurkic, a few of these teams in the Western Conference might be able to leapfrog the Portland Trail Blazers for that coveted four-seed to get home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. The Clippers have a golden opportunity tonight against a T-Wolves team that has lost five of their last six games. Our system likes LA to get the win on the moneyline.

(8:30 p.m. EST) Sacramento Kings (-1.5/-122 ML) at Dallas Mavericks – Total: 226.5

This game between the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks won’t move the needle on the NBA Playoffs. However, our system likes the under on tonight’s game as these two teams just played each other five days ago. There should be plenty of familiarities here, and that could be a key for the Mavs slowing down Kings’ point guard De’Aaron Fox. The Kings’ last three games have gone under the total, while the Mavs’ last two games have had the same fate.

(10:30 p.m. EST) Washington Wizards (+2/+114 ML) at Los Angeles Lakers – Total: 233.5

While the Washington Wizards are still “mathematically alive” we all know the deal – they’re not making the playoffs. Speaking of not making the playoffs, the Los Angeles Lakers will continue their ways of going through the motion, just as they have all season. Granted, the 233.5 total is quite large, but we shouldn’t expect either team to put any effort in on the defensive end tonight. Our system likes the over with the Lakers allowing at least 106 points in every game since Jan. 29.