Tag: Kansas City Royals

MLB Betting Value Picks for Memorial Day Monday, May 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Alright, last week was just one bad beat after another. Or should I say, one bad error/blown save after the other. Everyone, do your thing that you do – Woosah, Goosfraba, Hakuna Matata… I ain’t gonna judge you. Let’s get the monkey off the back. After all, we’re still 16 games over .500 in this space!

* 2019 MLB Record: 78-62-4 (56%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 10  (-120) – Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (moneyline: -114)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (4-5, 6.13 ERA/1.53 WHIP)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (3-4, 6.96 ERA/1.77 WHIP)

Yeah, looking at those numbers above and seeing that we’re liking the under is probably making you scratch your head. I’m a bit nervous myself, but there is some good statistical analysis to bring us there. The SK Trend Confidence does have more faith in the under than any other outcome, considering 13 of the White Sox last 18 games have gone under the total, while the Royals have scored three runs or fewer in nine of their last 15 games.

For one, White Sox starter Ivan Nova really hasn’t been as bad as usual over the last few weeks. His only blowup outing came against the Blue Jays, who were seeing him for the second time in six days. Nova, despite allowing 10 hits, actually had really good stuff early on against the Astros – a few of those hits found some holes.

It’s also worth mentioning that Chicago has won four of the last five games that Nova has started. Also, our friends over at EV Analytics like him to reach over 3.5 on his K-prop for today – always a good sign.

What really helps Nova today is home plate umpire Bill Miller, who tends to favor pitchers. In fact, Miller has the third-highest K-rate (21%) and second-lowest on-base percentage (.312) of any umpires with at least 200 games under their belt. Vegas has noticed this and adjusted the total to 9.5 on some books – hopefully, you’ll get yours at 10.

The weather should help alleviate some runs as well, as the wind will be blowing in from center field at 10 mph.

All in all, I do like the White Sox to get this win with a good day from Nova.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox  (1.5-run line: +110)
CLE: Jefry Rodriguez – R (1-4, 4.08 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
BOS: Rick Porcello – R (4-5, 4.45 ERA/1.31 WHIP)

The SK Trend Confidence rating likes the under as the most likely outcome in this game. And it makes plenty of sense, considering Indians’ games have gone under the total in 14 of their last 18 games. The Red Sox also had a weekend full of unders in three straight games against the Astros.

Rick Porcello takes the mound for Boston, and he’s been outstanding with five quality starts over the last six outings. Over that stretch, the veteran righty has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of those outings. The Red Sox offense seems to like when Porcello is on the mound, as they give him an average of 6.4 runs of support in his starts this season.

Jefry Rodriguez has allowed seven hits in three of the last four starts – in the misnomer, he gave up six. It’s interesting that the game total jumped from 9.5 to 10.5, considering how well Porcello has done of late. This leads me to believe the Red Sox will jump all over Rodriguez early and coast to victory.

In terms of value, it makes more sense to bet Boston on the 1.5-run line at +110, as opposed to -180 on the moneyline – the Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. Cleveland has lost six of its last seven games, with each of those losses coming by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Cleveland Indians: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 78-59-4 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-118) – New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals
NYY: Domingo German – R (9-1, 2.60 ERA/0.98 WHIP)
KC: Danny Duffy – L (3-1, 3.45 ERA/

Domingo German has been just what the Yankees needed this season, given all their injuries. It is interesting, though, that this KC team is the only one to hand him a loss this season. German still pitched well in that game, allowing three runs over six innings, but I would look for him to have added motivation in this matchup.

Danny Duffy has been much better since the start of May, with a 3-0 record and 3.04 ERA in four starts. It’s crazy, but Duffy has actually been much better against right-handed batters this season, allowing an opposing batting average of .229 and .690 OPS.

Given the recent performances of both starters and the talented Yankees’ bullpen, I’m going with the under in this game. Ultimately, that should be the difference in the game as well.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

[2:20 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-110) – Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
CIN: Tanner Roark – R (3-3, 3.51 ERA/1.42 WHIP)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (4-3, 3.30 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

After two games with double-digit run totals, Vegas placed a 7.5-total on this game featuring two crafty veteran pitchers. The weather won’t be inducive to offense, as the temps will be in the upper-50s with the wind blowing in at about 10 mph. Also, the opening total dropped from 8.0 to 7.5, with the team’s IRT subsequently dropping as well – Reds: -0.3, Cubs: -0.2.

Given the microscopic run total, I’m banking on Jose Quintana to have a huge start today. Cincy’s offense has been struggling mightily against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, with a .198 wOBA and .087 ISO. Quintana has been legit over his last eight starts, not allowing more than three runs in any of those starts.

In Quintana’s last three starts, the game total has only maxed out at seven.

On the other side, Tanner Roark has been solid in the month of May with an ERA just under 3.00. What is particularly appealing about Roark is the fact that he’s only allowed two homers in 51 1/3 innings of work this season.

I’m trusting the numbers from Vegas and the SK Trend Confidence rating, which is the highest on the slate, for this total going under.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[3:00 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Colorado Rockies (1.5-run line: -152)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-6, 6.75 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
COL: German Marquez – R (5-2, 3.38 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

Sometimes the numbers speak to you… and sometimes they scream right in your face. The Rockies have a 7.9 IRT today, and that’s a +0.6 increase from the initial number, which was at 7.3. That current number is clearly the highest IRT of the MLB season. Colorado also had a moneyline increase from -262 to -316, the largest on the slate.

There’s a good reason for that zaftig IRT, as the Orioles have allowed 113 homers – 20 more than any other team in MLB. Baltimore’s starter David Hess has been ripped consistently, allowing nine homers in his last 15 innings of work. Not to mention, Hess has a K-prop of 4.0, with the juice on the under at -150 – that’s basically saying he won’t last long today.

You very well could take the over (11.5, -118) in this game, considering Rockies’ starter German Marquez has allowed at least seven hits in five of his last seven starts. Marquez did have his best outing of the season last time out against the Pirates, but that was at PNC Park.

At Coors Field this season, Marquez does have a 5.34 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in five starts and Baltimore hasn’t necessarily been terrible with the bats. Over the last 14 days, the Orioles have a .350 wOBA and .225 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Although it’s more money to lay, I do have more faith in the Rockies totally thrashing the Orioles today. Let’s take Colorado on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Colorado Rockies: 9 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, May 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 68-43-4 (61.3%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: +114)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (3-2, 5.35 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (3-0, 4.86 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Phillies have the highest IRT (+0.7) and second-highest moneyline (-155 to -176) increases on the day. And that’s a good sign, considering Aaron Nola is on the hill for Philly. Aside from a rough outing against the powerful Brewers, Nola held opposing teams to one run in each of his previous three starts.

Meanwhile, these Rockies are striking out at a 31.8% clip over the last seven days, which is the second-highest in all of baseball. Now that the weather is starting to get a little warmer in Philly, we should see Nola get a better grip on the baseball, thus giving him more movement on those breaking pitches.

Antonio Senzatela has been much better on the road (3.31 ERA) than at home (7.27 ERA) this season, but Vegas has already spoken with the increases for the Phillies today. I have a feeling Rhys Hoskins is about to break out of his recent skid, as Senzatela has allowed more extra-base hits to right-handed hitters. Not to mention, Philly has quite a few righties that can do the same with Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, JT Realmuto and Maikel Franco.

Ultimately, I don’t mind the over in this game, considering the bullpens for both sides rank in the bottom third of MLB over the last seven days, but Philly on the 1.5-run line is where I’m planting my flag.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 7 – Colorado Rockies: 3 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-122) – Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians
BAL: John Means – L (5-3, 2.33 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
CLE: Adam Plutko – R (season debut)

Progressive Field is one of the few stadiums in baseball that has to deal with these pesky shadows for mid-day games. That’s bad news for an Indians team that already has the fourth-highest K-rate (28.1%) against left-handed pitching.

Hopefully, those shadows help Adam Plutko, who will be making his season debut after pitching down in Triple-A. He did make 17 appearances (12 starts) last season, going 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA, but did pitch well against this Baltimore team during that stretch.

All in all, the background conditions should be able to give a nice boost to both pitchers today early on, and that should hold off the double-digit total for long enough. The SK Trend Confidence rating also likes this game as one of its top plays today.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 4 – Cleveland Indians: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +106)
KC: Jakob Junis – R (3-4, 5.77 ERA/1.55 WHIP)
LAA: Griffin Canning – R (1-1, 5.65 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

A lot of people that I trust are big on this Griffin Canning kid, and I can pick up what they’re putting down. Despite losing at hitter-friendly Camden Yards in his last outing, Canning has posted at least six strikeouts in all three of his starts this season. The Royals’ offense has been quite stagnant of late, with only four runs over the last three games. Prior to yesterday’s two-run output, KC posted one run or fewer in four of five games.

Jakob Junis has not been good this season, allowing at least eight baserunners in seven of his last eight starts. That’s not good news for an Angels team that has a massive .401 wOBA and .219 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Just as we did yesterday, we’re going with the Angels big here.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 8 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

—

NBA Playoffs Pick: Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -110)

It took the Toronto Raptors three quarters to finally show themselves but did come through for us in relinquishing the game on Wednesday night. Just as we saw, the Milwaukee Bucks are a more well-rounded team from top to bottom and that’ll be more evident tonight.

The Bucks shot 25% from 3-point range, while Kyle Lowry of the Raptors went 7-for-9 from behind the arc — and Milwaukee still won. Believe me, neither of those will happen tonight, and the Bucks will coast to victory.

SK Trend Confidence rating believes the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread is the best value pick of the evening. Basically, you don’t even need to waste all that money ($270 to win $100) betting the Bucks outright when you can just sit back and watch them easily devour the Raptors.

– – –

* 2019 MLB Record: 66-39-4 (62.9%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-116) – Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (moneyline: -155)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.08 ERA/1.07 WHIP)
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-4, 3.64 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

The Nationals got a nice +0.5 boost to their implied run total (IRT) and their moneyline odds increased from -124 to -155, which is third-highest on the slate. Since Gerardo Parra came to DC, the Nats’ offense got a jolt of energy and more help is on the way with Trea Turner returning off the injured list tonight, while Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon have also returned in recent days. Parra won’t be in the starting lineup tonight against the lefty, but he could have an impact pinch hitting later in the game.

Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Nationals and it’s a bit surprising that they’ve only won two of his nine starts this season. Look for that trend to get bucked as the Cubs’ current roster has a combined 38.6% K-rate in 101 career plate appearances against Scherzer – Javy Baez and Kris Bryant have struck out a combined 14 times in 21 plate appearances – Yikes!

Cole Hamels goes for the Cubbies, and he’s done a fine job of limiting damage from opposing teams. The veteran lefty has been slightly worse away from Wrigley Field, allowing an opposing batting average of 66 points higher on the road than at home. I don’t think Hamels gets absolutely rocked tonight, but we could certainly see a score similar to the one Chicago lost by in Cincinnati last night.

It’s also interesting to note that Scherzer has a K-prop of 9.5 tonight, with +120 juice on the over. I’ve found myself gravitating more to these props lately, so that’s just some side action to throw on top.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – Chicago Cubs: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -116) at Detroit Tigers
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (4-2, 2.78 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-1, 2.63 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It has certainly been a rough stretch for the Tigers, allowing 8.2 runs per game over their last nine contests. Yesterday’s 17-3 thumping appears like it could happen all over again, as evidenced by the +0.6 IRT and moneyline (-145 to -180) increases for the A’s — both are the highest on tonight’s slate.

Oakland has Top-5 numbers against left-handed pitching this season in nearly every advanced-metric and owns a .365 ISO over the last 14 days — the highest for any split on tonight’s slate. That’s all good news, considering Detroit’s bullpen has pitched a whopping 35 innings over the last seven days – eight more innings than any other team over that span. Look for Daniel Norris to possibly get extended a little more, and rocked in the process.

Although he’s been allowing too many baserunners lately for my liking, Frankie Montas is an absolute stud. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Tigers’ team near or dead-last in most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching. Looking at their numbers over the last 14 days in that split, it doesn’t get much better, as they own a putrid .256 wOBA and 25.4% K-rate.

The Tigers have lost the last four games by a combined deficit of 32 runs, and their last 11 losses have been by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +124)
KC: Brad Keller – R (2-4, 4.47 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (1-3, 6.69 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It was a good start to the season for Brad Keller, but things have certainly taken a turn for the worst. Keller has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts with the only misnomer coming against the Tigers, who are the worst hitting team in the American League.

The Angels received a +0.5 IRT increase, which is tied for second-highest on tonight’s slate. Makes sense, considering their outstanding .407 wOBA, .238 ISO and 14.7% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Over the course of the season against righties, the Angels rank first in K-rate (15.7%), second in wRC+ (120) and fourth in wOBA (.346).

Matt Harvey has looked much better of late, allowing two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. One of those outings came against the Royals, going seven innings and allowing two hits, three walks and one run while striking out five. KC’s offense has not been at its best of late, scoring one run or fewer four of the last five games and in five of the last seven.

Keller’s last four starts have all been Royals’ defeats by three runs or more, while the team has suffered some convincing losses already this week. Let’s take a chance here and get plus-money on our bet for this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-128) – Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-158)
PIT: Jordan Lyles – R (3-1, 2.09 ERA/1.09 WHIP)
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (3-2, 4.57 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

I almost feel like we can take last night’s game preview, copy/paste and replace the pitcher’s names. Don’t worry, I won’t.

Not much changed with the Pirates and their struggles against left-handed pitching on Thursday, as they posted a total of two runs against Eric Lauer and the Padres’ bullpen. Pittsburgh faces another lefty, Joey Lucchesi, and he comes into tonight’s start in better form than Lauer did. Certain trends have already followed teams from the beginning of this season, and this one is no different for the Pirates – they just simply can’t hit lefties well.

The Padres do have the third-highest IRT (+0.4) and moneyline (-130 to -158) increases on the slate, which is interesting. They have well below-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching and Jordan Lyles has been quite solid this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all but one of his seven starts this season.

We can look to the first five innings total of 4.5 when figuring out how this game will play out. There’s a huge -160 amount of juice on the under there, so look for the Padres to capitalize on the Pirates’ bullpen late once again. Not trying to play God here, just looking at the numbers!

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB & NBA Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 59-38-4 (61%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -230) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (6-1, 2.51 ERA/0.82 WHIP)
DET: Gregory Soto – L (0-1, 15.75 ERA/2.75 WHIP)

So, this is awkward. Justin Verlander will return to the only MLB city he called home before accepting a trade to Houston back in 2017.

Verlander has been absolutely phenomenal this season, allowing one run or fewer in six of his nine starts, while Detroit’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, the Tigers have well below-average numbers in the same split.

This just isn’t going to end well for Detroit, losers of the first two games in this series by a combined score of 19-5. Houston’s offense is rocking and rolling over the last four games, with a total of 45 runs – the same amount as Miami has scored since April 21. Not to mention, the Astros’ offense ranks near the top of MLB in nearly every advanced metric, while owning absolutely gorgeous numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

I talked about it yesterday, but it’s quite telling when you see a team with zaftig juice on the 1.5-run line. The Astros are listed at -230 in that regard, in comparison to the -350 moneyline odds. Also, the IRTs for both teams are unlike anything you’ll ever see, as the Astros are at 6.7 while the Tigers are at 3.5 – that type of differential is a once-in-a-lifetime sort of thing.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:00 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 (-120) – Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-3, 2.68 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-4, 6.07 ERA/1.49 WHIP)

The highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the night in MLB is the under in this game, and that makes plenty of sense with Mike Minor on the mound for the Rangers. The made-over lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts and even held his own against the hottest lineup in baseball during his last start against the Astros.

KC has not fared well against left-handed pitching this season, owning the fourth-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .281) in that split. Not to mention, things haven’t gotten any better over the last 14 days.

While Jorge Lopez has given up a decent number of runs, he has gone at least six innings in five of the last seven outings. The Rangers’ offense hasn’t been particularly great against right-handed pitching, with a combined .274 wOBA over the last 14 days.

Minor is clearly the better pitcher here, so I expect him to get the win. Lopez can at least hold his own for a while and not let this thing get out of hand.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 6 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[8:30 p.m. EST] Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -115)

We’ve got some NBA action for the people tonight! The top SK Trend Confidence rating is on the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread, considering they have covered eight of their nine games during the playoffs. I typically don’t bet many NBA games prior to tip-off, opting for the live bets, but tonight is a special occasion.

The Bucks’ roster is miles ahead of the Raptors, who are coming off an emotionally-draining seven-games series against the 76ers. Just as we saw last night in the Trail Blazers-Warriors matchup, Portland wasn’t able to muster enough energy for its new opponent. There’s something to be said about carrying over the same intensity from one series to another – it’s remarkably tough and takes time to make the necessary adjustments.

When looking at Toronto’s roster, there’s not much there. Kawhi Leonard is basically all the Raptors have working for them, and that was evident towards the end of that last series. Sure, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry are fine players, but it didn’t even look like they wanted to touch the ball down the stretch of Game 7 against Philly.

Look for the Bucks to neutralize Kawhi and make the other role-playing Raptors beat them. Bucks big! #FearTheDear

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks: 102 – Toronto Raptors: 82 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 56-38-4 (60%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -144) at Detroit Tigers
HOU: Wade Miley – L (3-2, 3.18 ERA)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (0-1, 10.80 ERA)

Ryan Carpenter doesn’t have much MLB experience, but it hasn’t been good. After getting ripped for six runs in five innings during his season debut on Thursday, that upped Carpenter’s WHIP to 1.72 and an opposing batting average of .356 over 27 1/3 career innings of work. Yikes!

We always look at these IRT increases because they tell a story about the game before the first pitch has even been thrown. The Astros rank in the top three of nearly every advanced metric against left-handed pitching. Hence, why they had the highest IRT (5.6) at the open and now the biggest increase (+0.7) moving them to 6.3 – a full run more than three teams tied for second-most at 5.2.

Wade Miley should get plenty of run support from the Houston offense, which is always a benefit pitching for this team. The Astros have won the lefty’s last four starts by a combined score of 32-9, with all of them coming by two runs or more. Miley has four quality starts in his last five outings, and in the only misnomer, he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed one run.

The Astros are going to tear these Tigers apart, as evidenced by the massive -144 juice on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 11 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins
TB: Charlie Morton – R (3-0, 2.64 ERA)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (3-0, 2.11 ERA)

Both of these pitchers have been outstanding this season with a sub-three ERA and we’ve got the advanced metrics to prove how effective they’ll be tonight.

The Rays have the highest K-rate (30.6%) against left-handed pitching, while Caleb Smith has a 0.89 WHIP and 56 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings. Any questions?

The Marlins have the highest K-rate (27.1%) with the lowest wOBA (.263), wRC+ (65) and ISO (.089) against right-handed pitching. Charlie Morton has been more hittable than Smith, but he’s allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his eight starts this season. It never gets old ripping on Miami’s offense, which has posted two runs or fewer in eight of its last nine games.

I get it, taking the under on 6.5 runs will be about two-to-three hours of nervous reckoning, but you should have plenty of confidence with Morton and Smith going toe-to-toe.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 3 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (-138 ML, 1.5-run line: +132)
TEX: Shelby Miller – R (1-2, 7.48 ERA)
KC: Danny Duffy – L (1-1, 3.06 ERA)

It’s quite telling to see the Royals in that grouping of teams tied for the second-highest IRT (5.2) on the slate. There’s a good reason, though, as the Rangers will have Shelby Miller on the mound. Miller does have a massive 1.92 WHIP and Kansas City has above-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. KC can beat up on Miller early and then get to the Texas bullpen, which has the sixth-highest xFIP (4.64) in all of baseball over the last 14 days.

Danny Duffy gets himself a fantastic matchup here too, as the Rangers have the third-highest K-rate (28.4%) against left-handed pitching this season. Not only that, but Texas is striking out at a 34.9% clip against lefties over the last 14 days.

I could go either way here on the moneyline or 1.5-run line with KC. You don’t have to risk much on the moneyline and it’s a nice little plus-score on the 1.5-run line.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 7 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 48-34-3 (58.5%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, +108)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (2-4, 6.69 ERA/1.76 WHIP)
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (2-1, 3.16 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

OK, enough is enough already with these White Sox taking games against the Indians. Chicago got the first two games of this series and now trot out Reynaldo Lopez and his 1.76 WHIP, which ranks second-worst of any starting pitcher in baseball with at least 30 innings under his belt. If Cleveland ever had a pitcher to break out of its recent offensive funk, Lopez is certainly the guy to help out.

The Tribe is rolling out Shane Bieber, who has notched a quality start in five of his last six outings. While the White Sox did hang nine runs on Monday night against Trevor Bauer, they have scored two runs or fewer in four of the last five games.

Call this revenge, call this a team that’s due – call it what you will. The Indians are going to make up for their recent misfortunes in a big way today.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -166) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Chris Sale – L (5.25 ERA/1.28 WHIP)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (4.71 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The Red Sox have the highest moneyline increase (-245 to -281) on the slate and massive -166 odds on the 1.5 run-line. Needless to say, things are shaping up nicely for the defending champs on the road tonight.

Chris Sale is coming off his best outing of the season – no coincidence that it came against his former team – as he pitched six innings of scoreless ball with 10 strikeouts. The lanky lefty is 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against the Orioles since he joined the Red Sox. Not to mention, Baltimore has the lowest IRT (3.1) on the slate and have struck out at a zaftig 27.3% clip against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Andrew Cashner takes the mound for Bird Gang, and he’s been prone to have a surprisingly good outing every now and again. Luckily, his outings don’t last too long, with only two of his seven starts going for six innings or more. That’s good news, considering the Orioles bullpen has the worst ERA (6.13) in the American League and second-worst in all of baseball.

I expect the Red Sox to get off to a slow start offensively and then finally hammer this thing home late, with Sale, of course, keeping the Orioles off the scoreboard for most of the night. The SK Trend Confidence for the Red Sox on the 1.5 run-line is one of the highest on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros (-1.5, -110)
KC: Jorge Lopez – R (0-3, 5.09 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
HOU: Brad Peacock – R (2-2, 5.28 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

The Astros got rolled up and smoked in front of their home fans last night, so I’d expect them to come out with a focused mindset this evening. Houston ranks in the top five of MLB in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching, so there’s no surprise that its 5.7 IRT is the highest on tonight’s slate.

Royals pitcher Jorge Lopez hasn’t fared well of late, allowing four runs in each of his last four starts. If that wasn’t bad enough, Kansas City has lost six of his seven starts this season.

Brad Peacock takes the mound for Houston, and he just simply hasn’t been at his best this season, as was evident in that last start against the Twins. While we don’t look at the Royals as a powerhouse offense, they’re a pesky bunch that gets the job done in a variety of ways. Hell, they did just post 12 runs last night.

I feel like the Astros on the 1.5 run-line is a solid play, but the over is what really grabs my attention.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

We had some great data on the Mets-Phillies and Red Sox-Tigers games for Monday night. Unfortunately, those games look like they’ll be completely washed out by the rain. But don’t you worry, folks. Spread Knowledge will move past the inclement weather and find this MLB goodness for the people!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
KC: Brad Keller – R (2-1, 2.64 ERA)
TB: Yonny Chirinos – R (3-0, 3.26 ERA)

The total on this game has fallen off a cliff from 8.5 to 7.5, with both teams’ IRT subsequently decreasing as well – Rays: -0.7, Royals: -0.4. A big reason for that is because Rays’ outfielder Austin Meadows landing on the injured list, and that’ll certainly hurt this team which has lost four straight games.

Although I don’t think Meadows’ injury is the end of the world, Vegas certainly seems to think there won’t be many runs in this game. Brad Keller (1.17 WHIP) and Yonny Chirinos (0.83 WHIP) have both done a fantastic job of keeping runners off the basepaths this season, thus giving more evidence to the under in this game.

We’ll keep it short and sweet on this one, giving the Rays the advantage because of their bullpen.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (1-2, 4.76 ERA)
HOU: Brad Peacock – R (2-0, 3.94 ERA)

The Implied Run Total (IRT) has jumped up a bit in favor of both teams – Astros: +0.3, Twins: +0.2 – and there’s plenty of artillery to go around to justify such an increase. An Astros’ array of arms that allowed two runs or fewer in five straight games, suddenly coughed up a total of 20 runs in two games over the weekend against the Rangers.

Brad Peacock takes the hill for Houston, and he is typically not someone that will go deep into games. The Astros’ bullpen has been a bit overworked here these last two days, thus setting the scene for a tough battle against the Twins tonight. Not to mention, Peacock is 0-2 with a 4.05 ERA over his career in seven appearances against Minnesota.

Jake Odorizzi goes for the Twins, and while the righty does own a 3-1 mark and 2.12 ERA in five career starts against the Astros, he did get roughed up for six runs and nine hits over 10 2/3 innings against them last season. Minnesota’s bullpen had a busy weekend itself, playing a doubleheader in Baltimore on Saturday and then using three of its better relievers for an inning yesterday.

All of those factors, combined with an Astros’ offense that scored at least seven runs in four of the last five games, make this an appealing bet on the over.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Minnesota Twins: 5 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels (-104)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (0-2, 7.23 ERA)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (0-2, 9.64 ERA)

We could easily call this a logistics nightmare for the Yankees, having to fly all the way across the country after playing a Sunday afternoon game, while the Angels stayed put in Southern California. But have you seen what the Yanks’ lineup is going to look like without Aaron Judge? Yikes!

While Matt Harvey is not the same guy from the days of being labeled the “Dark Knight,” I do think this is an opportune time for him to get back on the good foot. After all, Harvey’s four starts this season have been against solid offenses of the Rangers (twice), Brewers and Athletics, the latter of which was his best. Given the Yanks’ itinerary ahead of tonight’s matchup, I feel like Harvey has an outing that is good enough to get the Halos the victory.

J.A. Happ has not lived up to the billing for the Yankees this season, but he did finally make it out of the fifth inning in his last – something he was unable to do in the first three starts. It’s still worth noting, however, that Happ has allowed six home runs in 18 2/3 innings of work this season — and that’s against the Orioles (twice), White Sox and Red Sox. It’s possible that Happ is motivated to pitch much better with a B- or C-list roster behind him, but I still feel like the Angels are the more talented team in this current-day scenario.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 4 – New York Yankees: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:40 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 –  St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (0-1, 2.79 ERA)
MIL: Freddy Peralta – R (1-0, 6.91 ERA)

This will be the Redbirds’ second trip to Milwaukee already this season, and it didn’t go too well for them the first time around. The Brewers ended up winning three of the four games in that series and our Trend Confidence rating has them as the most likely team to win on the MLB slate tonight. Not to mention, the over in this game is the strongest overall play that we have on the board.

Dakota Hudson takes the hill for St. Louis, and he has put a ton of guys on base in each of his two starts this season. That’s just not a recipe for success against a Milwaukee lineup that has talent up and down the order. The Brewers are finally back home (where they are 5-2) after a tough, but short, West coast trip against the Angels and Dodgers. Look for the Brew Crew to take advantage of those extra baserunners and give Hudson more headaches.

Freddy Peralta will be starting for Milwaukee, and he has been equally as bad as Hudson. In fact, Peralta only lasted three innings in his season debut against these same Cardinals, allowing six hits, three walks and four runs.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
KC: Heath Fillmyer – R (0-0, 15.00 ERA)
CHW: Ervin Santana – R (0-1, 17.18 ERA)

Yes, those ERAs you see above are correct — that’s a combined 32.18 between the two of them. Yikes!

I’m going with the over in this game, considering the White Sox have hit that mark in 10 of their 14 games this season, while the Royals have done the same in 11 of their 15 games. That, coupled with the fact that both pitchers are struggling out of the gate, makes this a good night to see plenty of runs crossing the plate.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 9 – Kansas City Royals: 8 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds (+146) at Los Angeles Dodgers
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (1-1, 0.92 ERA)
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (season debut)

Very, very interesting matchup at Chavez Ravine as Clayton Kershaw will make his season debut against a very talented pitcher in Luis Castillo. I’m taking the upset here and rolling with the Reds, who have a few guys making a homecoming of sorts. Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig should be ultra-motivated after getting shipped from beautiful Los Angeles to… well, Cincinnati. Be honest, you’d be upset too.

It’s quite interesting that the Dodgers don’t have a higher moneyline number, especially with Kershaw toeing the rubber. Granted, it’ll be his first start of the season, but this is just too noticeable of a number for me not to land on. Castillo has been fantastic early on with 25 strikeouts and only two runs allowed over 19 2/3 innings. A lot of people around baseball might not be too familiar with Castillo, but they certainly will be when the night is over.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 3 – Los Angeles Dodgers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Value Betting Picks for Monday, April 8

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-0, 2.76 ERA)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Runs, runs, everyone loves some fun! If the last series against the Yankees was any indication of how bad Orioles’ pitching has been, fans sitting in the Camden Yards’ outfield tonight better bring their mitts to the stadium.

Both sides have seen their Implied Run Total (IRT) increase greatly since the opening lines came out, and that’s a telling sign when looking for offense on the slate. In fact, Oakland’s IRT jumped 0.6 runs (Baltimore at +0.4) since the open, which is the second-highest increase of any team today. Reason being, the A’s have seen Cashner very well over the course of their careers – specifically, Kendrys Morales (6-for-10, 3 HR, 2 BB, 0 K) and Khris Davis (6-for-17, 1 HR). The current roster actually has a combined .354 batting average and 1.078 OPS against Cashner over his career. Not to mention, the Orioles’ bullpen has allowed the most runs (36) in all of MLB this season.

Six of Baltimore’s nine games have gone over the total this season and this is shaping up to be another high-scoring affair. The SK value system has a +36% Trend Confidence in this one going over 12.5 runs, so that should blow right past the current total.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 4

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 10 –  Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
SEA: Felix Hernandez – R (1-0, 1.69 ERA)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (0-0, 5.40 ERA)

Sure, “King” Felix had a solid debut to the 2019 season, but we should remember that he’s typically been a much better pitcher at home over the course of his career. This is a pitcher that is clearly on a downward slope and Vegas has recognized that, giving KC the highest IRT increase (+0.7) on the entire slate.

Seattle has been rocking and rolling on offense, scoring the most runs (85) of any team in MLB, but they have also committed the most errors in the league as well. That, coupled with the fact that Homer Bailey will be on the mound for KC, makes this a great play on the over. Certainly going to have a few cleats touching home plate tonight!

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 9

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 – San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
SD: Eric Lauer – L (1-1, 3.27 ERA)
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (0-2, 1.38 ERA)

We’ve got a fantastic matchup of southpaw dealers at Oracle Park tonight as Bumgarner and Lauer take the hill. It’s interesting to note that MadBum has never started his career 0-3, which looks him squarely in the eye tonight. I’d expect him to know this and take that as a personal challenge, thus leading to an epic performance.

Lauer is a very underrated pitcher that people will learn about sooner than later, but his last start didn’t fare too well against the D-Backs. He did, however, skill the Giants on Opening Day, allowing only four hits and one walk over six innings while striking out three hitters. Lauer’s ability, and the Giants’ lack of offense, set the stage for a low-scoring pitcher’s duel in San Francisco.

Bettors on the under would be fascinated to know that each of the first four matchups between these teams have landed on the under.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 3 – San Diego Padres: 2