Tag: NBA Betting

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Tuesday, April 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* NBA PLAYOFFS *

[9:00 p.m. EST] Under 210 – San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

The Spurs did their job and got the road win in Game 1, so they can basically take the night off for the sake of us bettors. After all, this is pretty much how a series goes if the underdog wins the opener on the road – The underdog usually gets rolled in Game 2 – See: Brooklyn Nets last night. And don’t let the score in that 76ers/Nets game fool you, because the Nuggets and Spurs simply don’t have that type of offensive firepower.

The best value play in this game is taking the under. Dating back to the regular season, 17 of San Antonio’s last 22 games have gone under the total, while Denver’s games also have a track record of not going over the total, suffering that fate in 22 of its last 32.

While it looks like the Spurs could very well get their doors blown off, SK has more confidence in this one going under the total. If you’re a fan of prop bets, taking the under of 101.5 points for the Spurs’ team total would also be a wise move.

[10:30 p.m. EST] Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers (-114 ML)

The highest SK Trend Confidence (32%) on tonight’s NBA slate is Portland to win outright once again over OKC. Everyone figured the Thunder would easily win Game 1, considering they went 4-0 against the Trail Blazers during the regular season. Not to mention, Russell Westbrook has outplayed Damian Lillard in the head-to-head sense over the course of their careers.

However, the tide turned in the series opener, and that was with Portland not necessarily playing its best brand of basketball. Thankfully, the Trail Blazers had a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and that allowed them to hold on for the five-point victory at the end.

OKC’s Westbrook (ankle) and Paul George (shoulder) are both a little banged up, and neither of them has completely dismissed the fact that these injuries will be an issue. If that truly is the case, the Thunder could be looking at an 0-2 hole heading back to OKC – and the SK Trend Confidence believes that will be the case.

* MLB REGULAR SEASON GAMES *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-250 ML/-1.5)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-1, 8.76 ERA)
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (3-0, 0.53)

Betting MLB games like this one is usually what we look for – pitchers trending in opposite directions. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays is off to an amazing start, allowing only one run in 17 innings, while striking out 21 batters and walking three. On the other side, Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles, and he has been absolutely horrendous, allowing 12 runs in 12.1 innings. Bundy has racked up 17 strikeouts so far but that has been nullified by a massive 1.78 WHIP.

The Rays currently have the best winning percentage in all of MLB and are showing no signs of slowing down. Especially with a fantastic matchup against Bundy on the horizon.

Tampa Bay on the moneyline has a nice SK Trend Confidence rating of 30%. But it might make more sense to bet the Rays on the 1.5-run line (SK Trend Confidence rating of 26%) so you don’t have to risk as much money.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-160 ML) at Oakland Athletics
HOU: Collin McHugh – R (2-1, 2.65 ERA)
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-1, 4.87 ERA)

The Astros will be looking to win their 10th consecutive game when they meet the A’s and if history is any indication, that shouldn’t be a problem. Collin McHugh has gone 9-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 18 appearances (12 starts) against Oakland over the course of his career. Not only that, but Houston’s bullpen has been outstanding at the onset, ranking third in all of MLB with a 2.70 ERA. The A’s bullpen has been responsible for five of the team’s losses, including four blown saves.

Houston’s offense is usually deadly, and this year is no different as it leads MLB with a collective .280 batting average. The Astros’ 32% SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest of any team on the moneyline tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 4 *

NBA Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, April 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

It has all come down to the final night of the NBA season. Eight of the games on tonight’s slate have some level of implications on the playoff picture in each conference. There’s nothing left to do but sit back and have a fun night watching these matchups.

Let’s take a look at which games have plenty of value in the betting trends tonight…

[8:10 p.m. EST] Orlando Magic at Charlotte Hornets (-4) – Total: 219.5

The Hornets need a win and Pistons’ loss in order to clinch the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. And it’s a lot easier said than done, considering the Pistons will be facing the Knicks, who own the worst record in the NBA. None of the three games in this Charlotte-Orlando season series have been nail-biters, with the winning margin coming by an average of 31.7 points – the Hornets have the 2-1 edge over the Magic this season.

Considering the Hornets need this game in order to have a chance of making the playoffs, we should see them have another successful performance tonight. In fact, Charlotte has gone 9-2 against the spread in its last 11 games.

[8:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks (+9.5) – Total: 206.5

Alright, the table has been set for the Pistons tonight – win and they’re in. However, this team just exerted a ton of energy in a miraculous comeback win over the Grizzlies at home last night, and now have to bring that same level of intensity on the road. Granted, the Knicks have the NBA’s worst record and there’s no chance they’ll relinquish that fate at the end of the night. There’s a good chance, though, that they come out with a fiery effort in the final game of the season. In essence, this is a playoff-like game for the Knicks.

Detroit just isn’t playing its best basketball heading down the stretch and 9.5 points seems like a wishful number to hit on the road, especially for a team that hasn’t covered the spread in five consecutive games and could be without Blake Griffin. I do think the Pistons get the win tonight, but it certainly won’t be by double-digits on the back-end of a back-to-back.

[10:40 p.m. EST] Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5) – Total: 225

The Clippers could avoid a first-round matchup with the almighty Warriors by winning tonight’s game against the Jazz, and the 6.5-point spread looks a lot easier to hit with Utah sitting all of its key players.

It’s an interesting scenario too because the Spurs and Thunder games matter a lot to the Clippers’ fate. San Antonio and OKC will tip off its respective games at 8:10 p.m. EST, two-and-a-half hours before Los Angeles takes the floor. According to ESPN… If the Spurs lose and Clippers win, LA grabs the No. 7 seed. If the Thunder lose, and Spurs and Clippers win, LA would get the No. 7 seed in that scenario as well. If all three teams win, or the Clippers lose, LA would get the No. 8. It’s all very simple, you see? Yikes!

With the Clippers essentially playing the Jazz D-squad, look for them to roll in this game.

NBA Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, April 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Be sure to tune in to the NBAyd Show tonight with Gary Ayd of SB Nation. I’ll be on at around 9:20 p.m. EST on sbnationradio.com!

One night after we crowned a champion in college basketball, it’s now time to finish off the final two days of the NBA season. There’s plenty at stake in the Eastern Conference, as the Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat are all fighting for that final playoff spot – and the best part is that they’re all in action tonight. Let’s take a look at who could make a move in the right direction, and who could possibly fall out of the picture.

[7:10 p.m. EST] Charlotte Hornets (-8/-340 ML) at Cleveland Cavaliers – Total: 221

There’s no getting around it – the Charlotte Hornets need this game. Tomorrow night, they’ll take on the Orlando Magic, so it’s imperative for them to take care of business on Tuesday. And the Hornets likely will, as they have won seven of the last 10 games, covering the spread in eight of them.

The highest SK Trend Confidence score (25%) lies within the over in this game, as six of the last eight Cleveland Cavaliers’ games have gone in that direction. It makes sense, with the Cavs in full-on tank mode, they have allowed at least (AT LEAST!) 110 points in each of their nine losses.

[7:10 p.m. EST] Memphis Grizzlies (+10.5/+410 ML) at Detroit Pistons – Total: 209.5

If anyone finds the Detroit Pistons, can someone let them the playoffs are about to start soon? Yikes! The Pistons have completely let a golden opportunity slip right through their hands, losing seven of the last nine games, including four straight. On the other side, the Memphis Grizzlies absolutely know that they have a chance to spoil some plans for the home team. After all, the Grizz have had wins against quality teams like the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder in recent memory.

The highest SK Trend Confidence score (30%) sits with the Grizzlies to win outright on the moneyline in this game. If that’s too much risk to handle, Memphis should easily cover that 10.5-point spread.

[9:40 p.m. EST] Houston Rockets (-2/-128 ML) at Oklahoma City Thunder – Total: 230

Believe it or not, but the Houston Rockets have a chance to grab the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Tonight is their final game of the regular season, and the Rockets are rolling heading into the playoffs with a 20-3 record over the last 23 games. Not to mention, James Harden and the boys have covered the spread in each of the last six games. With this being Houston’s last chance to position itself for playoff seeding, look for them to have an inspirational performance against OKC.

The Rockets’ moneyline win has the highest SK Trend Confidence score (37%) of any scenario in this game tonight.

NBA Betting Value Picks for Sunday, April 7

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

If you haven’t been watching the NBA this season, Sunday is a great day to get yourself reacquainted with the game. There is a total of eight games on the docket that have some level of importance towards making the playoffs or positioning within the standings. Buckle up, folks. The Lord’s Day is going to be a dandy!

NBA Value Betting Picks for Sunday, April 7

[4:00 p.m. EST] Charlotte Hornets (+6.5) at Detroit Pistons – Total: 216

The Hornets have beaten the Pistons in all three meetings this season, two of them coming by 10+ points. After a brutal stretch of games out West, Charlotte has won its last two games and, thanks to help from other teams, still finds itself in the running for the last playoff bid in the East. The highest SK Trend Confidence on this game is in favor of the Hornets, who are 7-3 in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record.

[7:35 p.m. EST] Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics (-190 ML) – Total: 217

Believe it or not, the Celtics have lost each of their two meetings against the Magic this season. This is a perfect time for Boston to repay the favor and finally clinch home-court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. The Celtics, who have gone through the motions this season, are clicking at the right time with five wins over the last six games. Those two wins from the Magic came by a combined five points. That, coupled with the fact that Orlando is fighting for its playoff livelihood, makes Boston a much safer play on the moneyline.

[9:00 p.m. EST] Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-135 ML) – Total: 217

This is EXCELLENT (I repeat… EXCELLENT) value on the Trail Blazers in this game. Why, you ask? Stay with me…

These two teams just played each other on Friday as part of a home-and-home series, and the team losing on the front-end of these matchups have come back to win over 70% of the time this season. Portland actually played Denver very well on Friday, despite what the nine-point differential might suggest. In fact, the Blazers are 6-1 in their last seven home games and desperately need a win tonight to keep a grip on the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Take Portland with confidence and, as an added sprinkle of goodness, the over in this game has a 27% Trend Confidence rating in this game – our second-highest rating on the entire slate.

NBA Betting Preview for Friday, April 5

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Get ready for another exciting night of NBA hoops! The Spread Knowledge top value plays of the night are listed below. However, because they are such heavy favorites on the moneyline, we’re only advising you to take them as an extra caveat to add to your parlays:

  • Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers (-667 ML)
  • New York Knicks at Houston Rockets (-2500 ML)

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 226.5 – Atlanta Hawks (+342 ML) at Orlando Magic

There’s no getting around it, but the Orlando Magic need to win, as they currently sit in the final spot of the Eastern Conference playoff race. This is the final time that Orlando will have a regular season game on its home court, so the level of importance doesn’t even need to be described.

However, the SK value system loves the moneyline number on the Atlanta Hawks, who have been quite pesky down the stretch with outright wins over the 76ers (twice), Bucks and Jazz. Hawks point guard Trae Young is still trying to make one last heroic attempt at winning the NBA Rookie of the Year award and he can certainly make life difficult on the Magic defense.

While it is true that Orlando hit four straight overs, 216 has been the highest total over that stretch. Granted, Atlanta’s NBA-leading pace and lackluster defense are the reasons we see a 226.5 total tonight, but that just lends more optimism that the Hawks come in and pull off the upset win. In fact, two of the three Hawks-Magic matchups have gone under tonight’s total.

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 213 – Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers

These two teams just faced off last Friday and now they’ll do battle once again. The term “battle” is an understatement, as they both have the same record and find themselves jockeying for homecourt advantage in their eventual first-round playoff matchup. The Boston Celtics do hold the head-to-head tiebreaker but a win for the Indiana Pacers would be monumental here.

The one lean the SK value system has is Under 213 points in the game, mainly because of the importance of defense in this matchup, as Indiana ranks third in defensive efficiency and Boston ranks sixth. Not to mention, the two teams just saw each other and will likely have their best defensive efforts on deck.

[10:10 p.m. EST] New Orleans Pelicans (-130) at Phoenix Suns

The SK value system has quite the knack for pointing out these late-season NBA games that have absolutely no meaning whatsoever in the standings. However, the amount of key players the Phoenix Suns are missing is just too large to ignore. Granted, the New Orleans Pelicans will be missing Anthony Davis but that seems like a blip on the radar, consider the Suns are missing Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton and T.J. Warren.

Look for the Pelicans B-team to get the win over the Suns C-team.

[10:40 p.m. EST] Portland Trail Blazers (+236 ML) at Denver Nuggets

In what would be a dazzling upset win, the SK value system loves the Portland Trail Blazers to go on the road and get the outright W over the Denver Nuggets. The Trail Blazers have won 11 of their 13 games while the Nuggets have been a very Jekyll-and-Hyde sort of team, going 3-4 over the last seven. Denver has won each of the previous two meetings versus Portland this season by a combined four points. Not to mention, these two teams will face each other in their next game on Sunday – time for the Trail Blazers to get busy and even the score.