Tag: New York Mets

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 25

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 120-105-4 (53.3%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-122) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Walker Lockett – R (0-1, 23.14 ERA/2.57 WHIP)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-6, 4.12 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

We saw a slugfest last night, and we’re going to see one again. Vegas already set the tone for this game, raising the total from 10 to 10.5, and the heavy juice (-122) is on the over.

Most of that has to do with Walker Lockett, who has been battered in his brief MLB experience. Dating back to last season, Lockett owns an 0-4 record to go along with an 11.42 ERA/2.19 WHIP over 17 1/3 innings.

The Phils are coming off a season-high 19-hit performance in last night’s game, and I’d look for them to carry over the hot-swinging sticks tonight. As I mentioned in yesterday’s writing, the Phils were swept over the weekend by the lowly Marlins, and this series against the Mets is a true challenge of where this team is at – and where they’ll be going forward.

Jake Arrieta has thrown two consecutive quality starts, but I don’t see that trend continuing. Left-handed batters have been giving him plenty of trouble this season, and now the Mets have guys like Jeff McNeil, Robinson Cano and Michael Conforto back in the lineup.

Just as the case was last night, both teams’ bullpens are an absolute mess. I went over the advanced metrics yesterday, so there’s no need to do it again after a 13-7 game. They suck, take my word for it.

A total of eight homers were hit in last night’s game, adding on to the narrative of slugfests between these two teams at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s do it again!

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 10 – New York Mets: 5

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-104) – Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (8-6, 4.38 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
MIL: Zach Davies – R (7-1, 3.06 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

We’ve got two hot offenses going head-to-head in Milwaukee, so it’s only natural to take the over here. After all, Vegas raised the total from 9.5 to 10.5, with each team getting a nice IRT increase as well – Brewers: +0.6, Mariners: +0.4.

After struggling at the beginning of June, the Brewers have now scored at least six runs in four of the last five games. Looking at their Statcast data over the last 21 days, we’ll see that Milwaukee has been quite unlucky against right-handed pitching over that span. Their .357 xwOBA and .310 wOBA have a huge gap, with the xwOBA telling us their quality of contact is high and the wOBA telling us how painful it’s been to watch those baseballs hit leather.

Marco Gonzales has pitched well in his last three outings, but he’s facing an incredibly tough lineup in their own ballpark tonight. Not to mention, Miller Park tends to favor offenses more often than not.

The Mariners’ bullpen owns the fourth-worst ERA (5.24) in all of baseball, and we’ll probably see more of them tonight if Gonzales gets lifted for a pinch hitter in the NL ballpark.

Zach Davies has been knocked around in the month of June, allowing 30 hits and 13 runs over 20 2/3 innings of work. Opposing hitters have a .353 batting average against him over that span.

Seattle’s offense is rocking and rolling with a .360 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, and the top of its’ lineup is mainly to thank for that.

All in all, we’ve got two teams making solid contact with the ball and the Brewers should especially be able to feast late in this game against the Mariners’ bullpen.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 6

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 24

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 119-103-4 (53.6%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-116) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Steven Matz – L (5-5, 4.28 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (6-7, 2.83 ERA/1.16 WHIP)

This should be quite a game tonight, with both teams facing their own bouts of controversy. The Phils on a seven-game losing streak and the Mets dealing with yet another chaotic situation after Mickey Callaway and Jason Vargas almost came to blows with a reporter yesterday.

Nonetheless, the Phillies-Mets matchups at Citizens Bank Park tend to have plenty of runs scored – and it’s usually the Mets doing most of the damage. You just have to wonder when we’re going to see the Phils pick themselves back up off the floor. Getting swept over the weekend by the Marlins might just be the motivation they needed.

Zach Eflin had one start against the Mets so far this season and allowed four runs (three earned) over four innings. Lifetime against the Mets, Eflin has a 2-4 record with a 5.63 ERA/1.33 WHIP in eight starts.

Steven Matz has two starts against the Phis this season, with one great outing and the other one… ehhhh, not so much. Back on April 16, Matz didn’t even record an out before leaving the game, allowing eight runs (six earned) on two homers, four hits and a walk. In the outing that went well, which was actually his next start after getting whomped by the Phils, Matz allowed one run over six innings. Lifetime against the Phils, Matz is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA/1.50 WHIP in seven starts.

Then there’s the issue of these bullpens. Over the last 14 days, the Phils’ pen has the second-worst xFIP (5.48) while the Mets own the fifth-worst (5.19). The advanced metric “xFIP” determines the quality of pitching that is independent of fielding – the higher the number, the worse they are.

It’s going to be a gorgeous evening in Philadelphia, with the wind blowing out slightly at 6 mph to center field, making it great hitting conditions at an extreme hitter’s ballpark.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – New York Mets: 7 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-116) – Chicago White Sox (ML: +150) at Boston Red Sox
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (10-2, 2.74 ERA/1.02 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (8-4, 4.71 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a very high B+ grade on both the White Sox and total going under in this game.

Granted, Lucas Giolito is coming off a rough outing against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, but I won’t hold it against him. That’s been a tough matchup for most pitchers, and especially for Giolito since coming to Chicago.

The kid’s metrics, which include a 30.9% K-rate and 14.6% swinging-strike rate, are absolutely fantastic. Over the last 30 days, Giolito’s 34.6% K-rate is fifth-best in MLB behind Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler. Thanks to that note from Brian Tulloch at FantasyCPR. All of you fantasy baseball fans, check out his article from today.

Giolito slipped up in his last outing and I fully expect him to get back on the dominant foot. Sure, the Red Sox are a tough matchup, but Giolito has 15 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings of work against them in his lifetime and only allowed one extra-base hit in 44 plate appearances against the current roster.

Eduardo Rodriguez is slowly starting to come around, and he too had a rough outing last time out against a tough Twins lineup. In most of E-Rod’s starts that he’s supposed to do well, he does. Even though it goes against the thinking of the White Sox winning tonight, E-Rod has an 18-2 record since the beginning of last season against teams with a losing record – it still means that he pitches well when he’s supposed to.

At the end of the day, Giolito is the more-dominant pitcher between the two and we’re getting a huge plus-money opportunity with him on the mound – especially when the Red Sox just struggled over the weekend with the lowly Blue Jays. E-Rod has allowed six homers over his last 25 1/3 innings of work, and that could ultimately be the difference.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 4 – Boston Red Sox: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 (-108) – Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
ATL: Julio Teheran – R (5-5, 3.40 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (6-5, 4.13 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

Ohhh yes, take the over on this game and never look back. 15 mph winds are blowing out to center field with two solid offenses in great spots. Vegas has taken note of the extreme hitter’s conditions and elevated the IRTs for both teams – Cubs: +0.6, Braves: +0.4 – as well as the game total from 10.5 to 11.5.

Julio Teheran was on a nice run of outings, but the Mets abused him for eight hits and six runs to go along with three walks over four innings of work. Back on April 3, Teheran allowed nine baserunners against the Cubs but did manage to get out of that outing allowing only one run. With the conditions not in his favor tonight, some of those opportunities could turn into damage real quick.

The Cubs rank ninth in all of baseball in the power-metric ISO (.194) against right-handed pitching. Also, the Braves bullpen ranks 10th-worst in xFIP (4.78) over the last 14 days.

Jon Lester has been getting beat up with regularity, allowing seven or more hits in seven of the last nine outings. To make matters worse, one of the best hitting teams against left-handed pitching makes their way to Wrigley Field. Over the last 21 days, the Braves have a massive .441 xwOBA – the metric that is calculated by quality of contact. For reference, about .335 is average. A lot of those quality-contact balls should be flying over the ivy tonight

Hopefully, you’re watching this game since it’s on MLB TV tonight. You can miss the NBA awards show, I’ll fill you in on Twitter.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 12 – Chicago Cubs: 10 *  

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 112-92-4 (55%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-5, 4.31 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (5-5, 4.11 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

Jake Arrieta has not been at his best of late, and his control has been a big reason why. The veteran righty has issued nine walks over his last two outings (10 2/3 innings), despite the Phillies getting the win in each of them. Not to mention, the road has not been kind to Arrieta, as he’s allowed five runs in each of his last two starts away from Citizens Bank Park.

The Phils’ bullpen has been downright awful of late. After coughing up Friday’s game in Atlanta, three of their pitchers combined to give up 15 runs in Sunday’s loss to the Braves. Stretching it out a bit longer, the Phils’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA (9.27) in MLB over the last seven days.

Arrieta could very well find himself in a spot where he’s forced to pitch more innings, even if things aren’t going well.

Aside from a complete-game shutout against the lousy Marlins, Patrick Corbin has not performed well at lately. Over his last three starts (12 2/3 innings), the lefty has allowed 22 hits and 20 runs (16 earned) – yikes!

The top six hitters in each team’s lineup have been making solid contact over the last 21 days against the handedness of starting pitcher on the mound tonight. Not to mention, five of the last six games for both teams have gone over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 7 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (+100) – New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (+106)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-6, 3.38 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
ATL: Julio Teheran – R (5-4, 2.92 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

There’s owning teams, and then there’s straight up OWNING teams. Julio Teheran does somersaults out of bed on days he knows the Mets are on the schedule. The veteran righty owns a 2.16 ERA/1.04 WHIP against them lifetime. New York’s current roster owns a putrid .203 batting average and .266 on-base percentage against Teheran with a 25.2% K-rate.

Teheran has been immaculate over his last eight starts, allowing one earned run or fewer and no homers in that stretch.

That’s how good Teheran has been against the Mets, that I didn’t lead off this game with reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. After a rough start to the season, he’s rebounded nicely by allowing two runs or fewer in eight of the last nine starts. deGrom also has solid numbers against tonight’s opponent, with a 1.86 ERA/1.02 WHIP lifetime. The current Braves’ roster owns a .235 batting average, .292 on-base percentage and 29.2% K-rate against him.

All of this is great news for the total going under tonight, but the one thing that could derail this pitcher’s duel is the Mets’ bullpen – they have been downright awful over the last couple of days. However, I find it quite intriguing that New York is favored in this game, considering how well Teheran has pitched against them in the past – not to mention, his current form. I do think that means deGrom ends up having a solid performance, but the game could certainly be lost by the bullpen.

Lastly, there are some great trends in the Braves’ favor tonight – or bad luck for the Mets. The Mets are 1-7 after allowing 10 runs in the previous game, 0-6 when deGrom is on the mound after a loss in the previous game and 4-10 in all games that deGrom starts this season. Yikes!

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 4 – New York Mets: 1 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-104) – Milwaukee Brewers (1.5-run line: -102) at San Diego Padres
MIL: Brandon Woodruff – R (8-1, 3.87 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
SD: Logan Allen – L (MLB debut)

Brandon Woodruff has pitched incredibly well this season and the Brewers have won his last nine starts – eight of them coming by two runs or more. Tonight, he’ll face a Padres offense that owns the third-lowest IRT (3.3) on tonight’s slate. Vegas is already telling us that we’re going to see another low-scoring affair, as both teams have seen a decrease in IRTs (Brewers: -0.4, Padres: -0.6) and the game total also went from 8.5 to 7.5. In my opinion, this is all fantastic news for Woodruff in one way or the other.

Logan Allen makes his MLB debut tonight, and he’s more of a needed body, as opposed to someone that deserved a call-up from Triple-A. Allen owned a 4-3 record and 5.15 ERA for Triple-A El Paso, but the Padres’ bullpen was absolutely taxed after a crazy three-game series in Colorado over the weekend.

Luckily for the under, Milwaukee’s bats haven’t been rocking and rolling like they have most of the season. Over the last 21 days, they own a well-below average .315 wOBA against left-handed pitching and did just get shut down by Joey Lucchesi last night.

All in all, we’re looking for a dominant performance from Woodruff once again, with Allen doing just enough to carry us to a low-scoring affair.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 5 – San Diego Padres: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 108-90-4 (54.5%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (ML: +138)
BOS: Brian Johnson – L (1-0, 12.71 ERA/2.29 WHIP)
BAL: John Means – L (6-4, 2.60 ERA/1.10 WHIP)

After two straight games of being massive underdogs, the Orioles find themselves with a much more reasonable number today at +138. And for good reason, as John Means takes the mound for Bird Gang. The rookie southpaw has been simply fantastic at home, going 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA/0.90 WHIP and opposing batting average of .180 this season.

Means has been quite effective against Boston this season, allowing only two runs and a 0.66 WHIP in 12 innings – one start each at home and on the road. The Red Sox really haven’t been that great against lefty pitching and actually own an 8-13 in games where the opposition has a left-handed starter on the mound.

The Orioles have seen a lefty starter in each of the first two games of this series, so they are more than prepared to face Brian Johnson after going against Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale. Johnson will be making his first appearance since early April because of elbow inflammation, so there’s certainly a chance he could be rusty in his return.

Of course, we are running the risk of relying on the Orioles’ bullpen, which has been absolutely ripped to shreds in this series and all season. However, Means should be able to give them some wiggle room, and possibly even get a longer leash than usual to avoid the sweep.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 4 – Boston Red Sox: 3 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals (ML: -122/1.5-run line: +134) at New York Mets
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (5-3, 3.47 ERA/1.50 WHIP)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-3, 3.68 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

It’s a good sign for the Cards, considering the IRTs are moving in opposite directions for these teams: Cardinals: +0.3, Mets: -0.3.

Whatever Dakota Hudson has been drinking or eating since mid-May, he definitely needs to keep it up. Hudson has now allowed two runs or fewer in each of the last five starts, including only one run in each of the last three. The Red Birds will also benefit from Jeff McNeil and Wilson Ramos getting the day off.

Jason Vargas looked human in his last start, and today’s matchup against St. Louis won’t be an easy one. A few of these guys have seen Vargas well over the course of their careers, including leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter, who is 6-for-7 against him lifetime. If Carp is getting on base with great regularity today, that’ll set the tone for the Cards’ lineup.

The 14 mph winds blowing out to right-center field will be a factor here as well. Hudson is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, which won’t affect him that much, while Vargas and his fly-ball ways could be playing with fire here.

I’d feel safer going with the Cards on the moneyline today, but I don’t mind hitting up that 1.5-run line at +134 since the team has won by two runs or more in Hudson’s last five starts.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – New York Mets: 2 *

[1:20 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-106) Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
PHI: Cole Irvin – L (2-1, 5.48 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (6.02 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

Four of the five games in this season series have gone over the total – so what’s another one? Vegas likes that idea, as the IRTs have been increased for both sides (Braves: +0.4, Phillies: +0.2).

Cole Irvin had a nice feel-good story, getting the win in his MLB debut on Mother’s Day at Kansas City. Since then, there hasn’t been a whole lot to be excited about, but he has faced some difficult opponents in the Rockies, Cubs and Dodgers. Unfortunately, it doesn’t get any easier today, as the Braves own Top-10 numbers in most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

There’s not a ton of info on it just yet, but it looks like Vince Velasquez will start the game as the “opener” and then Irvin will come in behind. By the way, the current Braves’ roster owns a .362 batting average, .415 on-base percentage and .993 OPS lifetime against Velasquez.

Mike Foltynewicz goes for Atlanta and this has been a brutal start to 2019. Folty has been at his absolute worst in SunTrust Park this season, going 0-3 with a 7.18 ERA/1.40 WHIP and 11 homers allowed in 31 1/3 innings.

I’ll give the nod to the Braves today, considering J.T. Realmuto and Jay Bruce are out of the lineup. The Phils’ bullpen was outstanding last night, but they still have terrible numbers across the board this season, and completely blew the game on Friday.

All in all, we’re in a great position for runs today at an extreme hitter’s park with mediocre pitching (at best) and questionable bullpens.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 6 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 1: Golden State Warriors (ML: +120) at Toronto Raptors

Game 1 of the NBA Finals starts tonight and the SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the Golden State moneyline at +102. While the Raptors were battling it out in seven games, the Warriors were able to sit back and study their opponent. Now, DeMarcus Cousins will be available for tonight’s game, giving the Warriors yet another weapon at their disposal.

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 84-67-4 (56%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-118) – Milwaukee Brewers (ML: -125) at Pittsburgh Pirates
MIL: Chase Anderson – R (2-0, 3.25 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
PIT: Joe Musgrove – R (3-5, 4.27 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

The only game with an A-grade on the SK Trend Confidence rating is the under on tonight’s game between the Brewers and Pirates. Phil Cuzzi, an extreme pitcher’s umpire, will be behind the plate and that lends more optimism to us winning this bet. In fact, Cuzzi has been behind the plate for 349 games over his career and the offenses have combined for a microscopic .311 on-base percentage – that’s the second-fewest for any home plate umpire with at least 100 games.

Most of the efficient pitching should come from the Brewers’ side of things with Chase Anderson starting on the mound. While he hasn’t been going deep into games, Anderson has been able to hold it down for the bullpen, not allowing more than three runs in any of his nine outings this season.

Joe Musgrove hasn’t been at his best lately, but neither have the Brewers’ bats. Over the last 14 days, Milwaukee has an anemic .304 xwOBA – a metric used to dictate quality of hit balls. Six of the last nine Brewers games have gone under the total, so look for that trend to continue tonight.

I’m going to take the Brewers on the moneyline as well, but the SK system is certainly in love with the under here.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 5 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 10 (-110) – Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers (ML: -154)
KC: Jakob Junis – R (3-5, 5.58 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-3, 2.55 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

Very strong data is coming in all over this game between the Royals and Rangers. The SK Trend Confidence rating loves the Rangers and the under, both with grades of B+.

A big reason for both of those possible outcomes is Mike Minor, who is 3-1 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts at Globe Life Park this season. The remodeled veteran has been straight filthy, and that’s bad news for a Royals team that has the third-worst wOBA (.276) against left-handed pitching this season. Not to mention, KC has putrid .262 wOBA and .036 ISO numbers against lefties over the last 14 days.

Jakob Junis has his work cut out for him, going against a talented Rangers’ lineup. Texas has been much better at home, compiling a 17-8 record at Globe Life Park, compared to its 10-18 record on the road. The Royals haven’t offered up much help for their boy Junis, losing seven of his last 10 starts, including each of the last four.

I really don’t mind going with the Rangers on the 1.5-run line at +112 here, but I’m going to keep it simple and just roll with the moneyline. I’ll kick myself later.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 2 *

[10:00 p.m. EST] New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -140)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (1-2, 5.22 ERA/1.57 WHIP)
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (7-1, 1.65 ERA/0.83 WHIP)

The Mets just keep doing Mets things – don’t ever change!

After last night’s catastrophic loss in the ninth inning, there’s no way these guys can pick themselves up off the ground. Especially going against one of (if not) the best pitchers in the National League this season.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been dealing heartbreaks on the mound all year, so what’s another one? In fact, Ryu has been even more lethal at home in Dodger Stadium, with a 5-0 record, 1.22 ERA and only one walk in 37 innings of work.

I’m absolutely astonished at how well Jason Vargas has pitched this season, but this all has to be coming to an end shortly. The Dodgers have done well against left-handed pitching too, and that’s probably because they have plenty of experience. No other team in MLB has more plate appearances (716) against lefties than LA. Quite fascinating!

All in all, this is just too tough of a spot for the Mets tonight. The Dodgers have handled them all series and will do so again.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 – New York Mets: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 24

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 77-57-4 *

We have to talk about the ridiculous amount of bad luck that has loomed over my head in MLB these last two days. Bullpens are mostly to blame for all this:

– Wednesday: Under 6.5 in WSH/NYM game – Nats up 1-0 going into the eighth, Mets win 6-1
– Wednesday: Under 7.5 in ATL/SF game – Ronald Acuna strikes out but a passed ball continues the inning and leads to five more ATL runs, Braves win 9-2
– Thursday: WSH moneyline vs NYM – Nats up 4-3 going into the eighth, Mets win 6-4
– Thursday: Under 9 in NYY/BAL – Yanks up 5-2 going into the eighth, Yanks win 6-5
– Thursday: DET (1.5-run line) vs MIA – Tigers up 2-0 going into the ninth, Marlins win 5-2

Must have pissed someone off upstairs! OK, back to the drawing board…

[7:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at New York Mets (1.5-run line: -134)
DET: Gregory Soto – L (0-2, 10.80 ERA/2.20 WHIP)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (3-4, 4.50 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Aside from a rough outing in San Diego, Noah Syndergaard has been much better with three quality starts over his last four games. Tonight, he’ll get a matchup against a Tigers team that ranks second-worst in nearly every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. Syndergaard has been outstanding at Citi Field over the course of his career, compiling a 24-12 record and 2.75 ERA in 49 starts.

Detroit has been swept in three straight series, including the last one to Miami – the team with the fewest wins in the National League. The Tigers’ offense has been brutal, sporting .232 wOBA and .102 ISO numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days, to go along with a 26.8% K-rate.

It also doesn’t help an anemic set of bats that the wind will be blowing in from left field at about 13 mph tonight in Citi Field.

We saw the Mets roll out an all-right-handed lineup in yesterday’s game, and that’ll play well against Tigers’ left-handed starter Gregory Soto and his horrific set of numbers. Soto has been especially bad against right-handed batters, allowing a .361 batting average, .405 on-base percentage and 1.099 OPS in 40 plate appearances. That inward-wind will likely affect the Mets’ offense in some capacity, but I do think they string together a few runs early against Soto that’ll carry them to victory.

The Mets are coming off a four-game sweep of the Nationals, while the Tigers have lost nine consecutive games, eight of them coming by two runs or more. Let’s go with the -134 odds on the 1.5-run line here, as opposed to the -290 odds that are on the moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -104)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (3-4, 5.14 ERA/1.50 WHIP)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (6-2, 3.39 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

The last start for Jose Berrios at Target Field was an absolute disaster, allowing 12 hits, five runs and two homers over 5 2/3 innings. But that’s just simply one of the biggest misnomers of all time – he’s still 22-6 at home since 2017.

Berrios has thrived in this matchup against the White Sox too, considering his best pitch (the curveball) is one that they struggle mightily against. Over his career, Berrios has gone 7-1 with a 2.12 ERA in nine starts against Chicago.

Reynaldo Lopez has been much better of late, but he’ll be running into the hottest offense in baseball. Yesterday in Anaheim, the Twins homered eight times – marking the second time they’ve done that this season. Minnesota already has 98 dingers through 49 games, tying them for the second-most through a team’s first 50 games in MLB history.

I’m not ready to say that Lopez has officially turned the corner yet because mostly all of his solid outings this season have come against subpar competition. Newsflash: the Twins are not subpar competition. In fact, Minnesota has scored at least seven runs in six of its last eight games!

It’s quite interesting that the White Sox took those final two games of the four-game series down in Houston. However, it’s time for them to come back down to Earth against Target Field Berrios! Let’s take the -104 odds on the 1.5-run line and skip the -196 odds that stand on the moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Chicago White Sox: 1 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-104) – Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (0-3, 6.91 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
STL: Miles Mikolas – R (4-4, 4.88 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Mike Foltynewicz had his best outing of the season last time out against the Brewers, but he did get beat over the head by these same Cardinals 10 days ago. St. Louis hung eight runs on the veteran righty, including three long-balls, en route to a football-like 14-3 score. Prior to Sunday’s outing, the opposition scored at least nine runs in all four of Folty’s starts.

A lot of these Cardinals’ hitters have done well when facing Foltynewicz, as the current roster has a combined .918 lifetime OPS against him. Not to mention, the Red Birds have a right-handed heavy lineup and Folty is getting bulldozed by righties so far this season to the tune of a .327 batting average, .727 slugging percentage and 1.111 OPS.

Miles Mikolas had just the opposite of Folty in his last outing, getting walloped for nine hits and seven runs over 1 1/3 innings at Texas. Mikolas isn’t the type of pitcher that fools many hitters – he’ll rely more on power and precision. When looking at this matchup against the Braves, it doesn’t seem like that type of game plan will work most of the night.

It was quite telling to see a 9.5-run total set to open this game at Busch Stadium, which isn’t necessarily a hitter’s park. However, the 9.5-run total has since jumped up to 10, with the implied run totals increasing slightly for each team – Cardinals: +0.3, Braves: +0.1. The Red Birds’ 5.6 IRT is the second-highest team total on tonight’s slate, only behind the Rockies, who will be facing the Orioles at Coors Field.

The weather should play a big part here as well. It’ll be an uncharacteristically warm evening in St. Louis, which should help the ball flight. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper-80s for the first pitch of this game, with the wind blowing out to left field at about 10 mph.

All in all, most of the runs will likely come from the Cardinals’ side of things, but don’t be surprised to see the Braves bring something to the table as well.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 8 – Atlanta Braves: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 23 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 77-54-4 *

[12:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (moneyline: -153) at New York Mets
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (4-3, 3.32 ERA/0.98 WHIP)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (3-3, 3.96 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

The Nationals have the largest moneyline increase of the day, going from -121 to -153. Stephen Strasburg will be tasked with helping Washington avoid the four-game sweep, and there are more than a few things working in his favor.

For one, Strasburg has thrown five quality starts in his last six outings. His 2.01 ERA in six daytime games and 17 strikeouts against the Mets in 12 2/3 innings have already played out well this season. Strasburg will also benefit from an all right-handed Mets’ lineup today – righties have a dismal .257 on-base percentage against him while striking out 31.4% of the time this season.

Stephen Matz has some rough outings under his belt of late. Not to mention, the Nationals have a solid .343 wOBA and very-low 14.1% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, batting No. 1 and No. 3 in the lineup, have put plenty of hurt on Matz in the past.

Looking at the implied run totals (IRT), the Nationals increased +0.2 while the Mets decreased -0.2. That, along with the moneyline increase for Washington, makes it a likely scenario that the four-game sweep will be avoided.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – New York Mets: 2 *

[12:35 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-110) – New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka – R (3-3, 3.09 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (2-5, 4.66 ERA/1.27 WHIP)

We might actually have an under in this series for once. After seeing a total of double-digits in three straight games, it’s time for a good pitching performance in the daytime.

Masahiro Tanaka has been outstanding in his last three starts, allowing a 0.78 WHIP and only three runs over 19 1/3 innings of work. The Orioles did plenty of work on the lefty CC Sabathia last night, but they still have a .270 wOBA and 27.1% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Tanaka will also benefit from having Austin Romine, a much better defensive-minded catcher, behind the plate today.

It’s always a scary proposition taking the under in a game where Dylan Bundy is pitching, but the Yanks are giving Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres the day off today. These two guys have combined to hit 20 homers against the Orioles this season, so luckily, we’ve got that out of the equation. Bundy has actually allowed no earned runs in two of his last three starts.

Since it’s a day game, most people probably won’t even realize that Sanchez and Torres are out of the lineup. Don’t be one of those people and catch some value on the under in this game!

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 5 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers (1.5-run line: +132)
MIA: Trevor Richards – R (1-5, 4.44 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (4-4, 3.41 ERA/1.01 WHIP)

This is the Tigers’ highest moneyline odds (-160) of the season – their previous high of -145 was a game they won as well. It makes plenty of sense, though, with Matthew Boyd on the mound. The lefty ran into two tough opponents (vs. HOU, vs. OAK) in his last two starts but that certainly won’t be the case today against the Marlins, who owns league-worst advanced metrics against lefties. Not to mention, Miami has a putrid .223 wOBA and .083 ISO in that split over the last 14 days.

On the other side, Trevor Richards will be pitching for the Marlins – and that’s great news for the Tigers. Richards has allowed two homers in four of his last five starts, so it’s no surprise either that the Marlins have lost all but one of his nine starts this season.

The total jumped up an entire run from 8.0 to 9.0, and you have to believe that’s because of the Tigers and their impending matchup against Richards. Look for Boyd to fry the fish and get the easy win in the process.

* Final Score Prediction: Detroit Tigers: 7 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 74-51-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-118) – New York Yankees (1.5-run line -168) at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: CC Sabathia – L (2-1, 2.97 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-3, 8.51 ERA/1.89 WHIP)

Once again, the top SK Trend Confidence rating is the over in the Orioles-Yankees game. And it’s not hard to see why, with Dan Straily taking the mound for Baltimore. The veteran righty has gotten lit up all season, especially at Camden Yards, allowing nine homers and a 2.35 WHIP over 18 1/3 innings. Straily has allowed a total 15 runs over his last 12 innings of work and the opposition has scored at least seven runs in each of his last four starts.

The Yankees’ offense is rolling, with a double-digit run output in each of their last three games. Much like last night, the best value is going with the over, considering the Yanks’ crazy moneyline (-235), but I don’t mind taking them on the 1.5-run line (-166). Whenever we see so much juice on that 1.5-run line, it almost always tends to win.

CC Sabathia has been on top of his game this season, but if there is a knock on him, it’s the 4.70 ERA and .237 opposing average he’s allowed on the road. The Orioles have hit their fair share of homers against the Yanks this season, but it’s not much of a surprise, considering both teams play in extreme hitter’s parks.

Look for the Yanks to continue adding on to the hurt Straily’s been feeling at Camden Yards this season. But, of course, we’re also looking for the Orioles to chip in a few as well on the total.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-114) – Washington Nationals at New York Mets
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-5, 3.72 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.98 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

Sure, both guys haven’t been at the top of their games for most of this season. However, the history of each pitcher against the opposition is just too good to pass up and the SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the total going under.

Max Scherzer will certainly be determined to take down the reigning Cy Young award winner and his squad. The Mets’ current roster has a combined .165 batting average, .219 on-base percentage and 38% K-rate against him lifetime. Although Scherzer has thrown a quality start in six of the last seven outings, it’s amazing to believe that the Nationals are only 2-8 in his 10 starts this season.

Jacob deGrom got absolutely waxed in his last start, which came against the lowly Marlins. We can call that bad luck or just a case of Miami having a good history against deGrom, but I’ll be willing to overlook that. Main reason – the Nationals’ current roster has a combined .175 batting average, .212 on-base percentage and 34.5% K-rate against deGrom.

Given the history of these pitchers against each team, we won’t see much scoring in this game. I’ll give the Mets the final advantage with the better bullpen and this odd trend of the Nationals losing the majority of Scherzer’s starts.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 (-106) – Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -166)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (2-4, 7.42 ERA/1.80 WHIP)
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (4-4, 3.56 ERA/1.04 WHIP)

Ivan Nova has been absolutely ripped to shreds this season, so it’s not a good sign for him to be facing an Astros team that ranks at, or near, the top of every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. While the veteran righty has allowed at least eight baserunners in each one of his nine starts this season, teams like the Blue Jays and Indians weren’t able to capitalize with runs – don’t expect Nova to be so lucky tonight against the Astros.

Gerrit Cole has only allowed one run over his last four starts, and I would expect that to continue today against a White Sox team that has scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six games. It’s interesting to note, a James McCann and Yonder Alonso have a decent history against Cole, so maybe they can step into one and help us out with the total.

With all that information on today’s starting pitchers and opposing offenses, we should fully expect the Astros to beat Nova over the head and the cover the total as well. With a little luck on our side, maybe (JUST MAYBE!) the White Sox can add a run or two.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 9 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-116) – Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
ATL: Max Fried – L (6-2, 2.86 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-2, 3.69 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

We’ve got a heavy trend of totals going under with both sides and they’ll be playing in one of the worst parks in baseball for offense. What a perfect match.

Jeff Samardzija gets a difficult matchup against the Braves, but he has been much better at Oracle Park this season, posting a 2.61 ERA and allowing an opposing batting average of .211. Atlanta’s offense has been somewhat neutralized since coming to San Francisco and its last four games have actually gone under the total. That also makes eight of the last 12 for the Braves that have suffered the same fate.

The key to the under tonight is the California kid, Max Fried, and his matchup against a Giants team that usually always struggles on offense. San Francisco games have gone under the total in three straight and in five of the last six. Fried is coming off one of his best outings of the season, throwing six innings of shutout ball while allowing two hits, two walks and striking out five.

All in all, the ballpark is going to help us more than anything, but the two pitchers certainly help the situation. Look for Atlanta to get the win, with Fried pitching a solid game.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 4 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 20

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 71-46-4 (60.7%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: +106) at New York Mets
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (4-1, 2.91 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
NYM: Wilmer Font – R (1-1, 7.08 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

Patrick Corbin has thrown eight quality starts in nine outings this season, three of them coming against the Mets. The lefty has made them look silly all season, mainly in the last two matchups as he totaled 20 strikeouts in 14 innings while only walking two batters. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Mets own a dreadful .197 wOBA, .059 ISO and 32.8% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Not to mention, the Nationals have won five of Corbin’s last six starts. All five of those wins have come by two runs or more.

To say the Mets are struggling would be an understatement, getting shutout twice over the weekend in Miami, and their manager Mickey Callaway is hanging on by a thread. I don’t think there’s any way they could possibly muster up enough strength to get this train back on the track until Callaway is gone.

Wilmer Font will be making his third appearance for the Mets and the last one against these same Nats did not go well. The righty allowed six hits, two walks and five runs over 2 1/3 innings en route to getting the loss. Now that the Nationals’ lineup is mostly back together, look for them to put another world of hurt on Font.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 7 – New York Mets: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (1.5-run line: +114)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (3-4, 4.00 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (4-3, 2.61 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

Mike Leake has been much better of late, but he does run into a Rangers’ lineup that consistently had his number. The current Texas lineup has a combined .351 batting average and .973 OPS in 173 plate appearances against him. In the last meeting between the teams on April 27, Leake allowed 10 hits and nine runs (five earned) over five innings. The Rangers have also lost five of the last six games that Leake has started.

Aside from Opening Day, Mike Minor has been outstanding at Globe Life Park this season, going 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts and allowing an opposing batting average of .202. The remodeled lefty had a season-high 13 strikeouts in seven innings against the Mariners back in that same start where Leake got thrashed. Seattle’s current roster also owns a 33% K-rate against Minor.

All in all, I think this is going to be a massive offensive display from the Rangers tonight. Texas has the highest IRT (6.1) on tonight’s slate and the game has a total of 11 – I don’t see the Mariners contributing much to the party. It’s interesting to note that the Rangers have only been favored eight times this season and are 6-2 in those games.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (moneyline: -138) at San Francisco Giants
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (4-1, 0.98 ERA/1.01 WHIP)
SF: Andrew Suarez – L (season debut)

Mike Soroka has been outstanding this season, allowing one earned run or fewer in all six of his starts. Not to mention, the young righty still hasn’t allowed a homer yet in 2019. That’ll play well at Oracle Park, which is a notorious pitcher’s park.

On the other side, Andrew Suarez will be making his season debut, and he gets a very tough matchup against a Braves’ team that ranks sixth in all of baseball with a .341 wOBA and 113 wRC+. Suarez wasn’t doing well in Triple-A, posting a 2-3 record with a 6.33 ERA.

We’re looking at a massive mismatch of starting pitchers and that should give the Braves an early advantage, which they should hold on to.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-104) – Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
ARZ: Luke Weaver – R (3-2, 3.16 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
SD: Chris Paddack – R (3-2, 1.99 ERA/0.75 WHIP)

Vegas made quite the statement by putting a 6.5 total on this game, but it does make sense, considering the current form of each offense against right-handed pitching. Both teams have a wOBA under .300, while Diamondbacks have a K-rate of 28% and the Padres at 30.2% against righties over the last 14 days, and that could be why their IRTs both decreased as well – Diamondbacks: -0.3, Padres: -0.2.

Luke Weaver has five quality starts in his last seven outings, one of those coming against these same Padres. Weaver struck out eight batters over 6 1/3 innings but did take the tough loss in a tight 2-1 game — Hopefully, something like we’ll see tonight.

Chris Paddack is coming off his worst start of the season, but it came against a very tough Dodgers’ lineup. He did allow six runs but only three of them were earned. Nonetheless, Paddack has been quite effective, throwing four straight quality starts before that game against the Dodgers.

The young righty doesn’t go too deep into games, but the Padres’ bullpen owns the third-best xFIP (3.71) in all of baseball.

Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 3 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, May 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 43-30-2 (59%) *

[4:05 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-122)
STL: Michael Wacha – R (2-0, 4.78 ERA)
CHC: Yu Darvish – R (2-3, 5.02 ERA)

The Cubs are hot right now, going 14-4 over their last 18 games, including wins in five straight. Michael Wacha has had plenty of troubles with the NL Central rival, as its current roster has a combined .331 batting average, .390 on-base percentage and .997 OPS against him, including 10 homers in 178 plate appearances. Anthony Rizzo is the happiest of the bunch to see Wacha, as he’s gone 20-for-42 lifetime with two doubles, three homers and only three strikeouts in 44 plate appearances.

Yu Darvish has looked much better in each of his last three starts, with a 2-1 record and 23 strikeouts over 16 2/3 innings. If he could just keep those walks down (22 in 28 2/3 innings this season), it may show that Darvish is finally back from the truly awful start he got off to this season. There is some comfort in knowing that each of his two lowest walk totals this season came in starts at Wrigley Field.

All in all, the matchup of Wacha against the Cubs could be too much for the Red Birds to overcome. Darvish is looking much better and it just adds more optimism to a Cubs team that is rolling right now.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 5 – St. Louis Cardinals: 2 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Indians (-1.5, +102)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (2-3, 4.98 ERA)
CLE: Carlos Carrasco – R (2-3, 5.86 ERA)

It has been a nightmarish run for the Mariners after their amazing start to this season. After getting out to a 13-2 record, Seattle has now lost 14 of its last 19, including five straight. Mike Leake goes for the Mariners and it hasn’t gone well for him recently, allowing four runs or more in three of the last four starts and eight homers over that span – 22 innings.

Carlos Carrasco has settled down a bit after a tumultuous start to the season, and that includes a 12-strikeout performance against these same Mariners a little more than two weeks ago. Not to mention, Seattle is in a truly-bad funk right now, scoring one run or less in four of the last five.

Keeping it simple here with a shutdown performance from Carrasco and the Indians cruising to victory. Cleveland’s 1.5-run line has much more value at +102, as opposed to the -205 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-104) – New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (2-2, 5.05 ERA)
MIL: Gio Gonzalez – L (0-0, 3.60 ERA)

Vegas has already put its stamp on this game, increasing the IRTs for both sides (Mets: +0.4, Brewers: +0.6) and the game total from eight to nine. Reason being, these two teams own the worst ERAs in the National League – Friday’s 3-1 win by Milwaukee was a mere misnomer.

The Mets’ offense should be able to get it going against Gio Gonzalez, who is facing them for the second time in as many starts. Gonzalez was in a lot of trouble during the first two innings of that game, but the Mets’ offense faced some bad luck by hitting into two double plays, which thwarted more runs crossing the plate.

There’s been a running joke on Zack Wheeler’s success tied to not facing the Nationals, but that notion was stumped in his last outing when he gave four runs in the second inning to the Reds. The Brewers will likely get Christian Yelich back in their lineup today and that’s just a good sign in general for offense.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 6 – Milwaukee Brewers: 5 *