Tag: San Diego Padres

MLB & NBA Playoffs Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

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NBA Playoffs Pick: Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks (-6.5, -110)

It took the Toronto Raptors three quarters to finally show themselves but did come through for us in relinquishing the game on Wednesday night. Just as we saw, the Milwaukee Bucks are a more well-rounded team from top to bottom and that’ll be more evident tonight.

The Bucks shot 25% from 3-point range, while Kyle Lowry of the Raptors went 7-for-9 from behind the arc — and Milwaukee still won. Believe me, neither of those will happen tonight, and the Bucks will coast to victory.

SK Trend Confidence rating believes the Bucks with the 6.5-point spread is the best value pick of the evening. Basically, you don’t even need to waste all that money ($270 to win $100) betting the Bucks outright when you can just sit back and watch them easily devour the Raptors.

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* 2019 MLB Record: 66-39-4 (62.9%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-116) – Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (moneyline: -155)
CHC: Cole Hamels – L (3-0, 3.08 ERA/1.07 WHIP)
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-4, 3.64 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

The Nationals got a nice +0.5 boost to their implied run total (IRT) and their moneyline odds increased from -124 to -155, which is third-highest on the slate. Since Gerardo Parra came to DC, the Nats’ offense got a jolt of energy and more help is on the way with Trea Turner returning off the injured list tonight, while Juan Soto and Anthony Rendon have also returned in recent days. Parra won’t be in the starting lineup tonight against the lefty, but he could have an impact pinch hitting later in the game.

Max Scherzer is on the mound for the Nationals and it’s a bit surprising that they’ve only won two of his nine starts this season. Look for that trend to get bucked as the Cubs’ current roster has a combined 38.6% K-rate in 101 career plate appearances against Scherzer – Javy Baez and Kris Bryant have struck out a combined 14 times in 21 plate appearances – Yikes!

Cole Hamels goes for the Cubbies, and he’s done a fine job of limiting damage from opposing teams. The veteran lefty has been slightly worse away from Wrigley Field, allowing an opposing batting average of 66 points higher on the road than at home. I don’t think Hamels gets absolutely rocked tonight, but we could certainly see a score similar to the one Chicago lost by in Cincinnati last night.

It’s also interesting to note that Scherzer has a K-prop of 9.5 tonight, with +120 juice on the over. I’ve found myself gravitating more to these props lately, so that’s just some side action to throw on top.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – Chicago Cubs: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -116) at Detroit Tigers
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (4-2, 2.78 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-1, 2.63 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It has certainly been a rough stretch for the Tigers, allowing 8.2 runs per game over their last nine contests. Yesterday’s 17-3 thumping appears like it could happen all over again, as evidenced by the +0.6 IRT and moneyline (-145 to -180) increases for the A’s — both are the highest on tonight’s slate.

Oakland has Top-5 numbers against left-handed pitching this season in nearly every advanced-metric and owns a .365 ISO over the last 14 days — the highest for any split on tonight’s slate. That’s all good news, considering Detroit’s bullpen has pitched a whopping 35 innings over the last seven days – eight more innings than any other team over that span. Look for Daniel Norris to possibly get extended a little more, and rocked in the process.

Although he’s been allowing too many baserunners lately for my liking, Frankie Montas is an absolute stud. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Tigers’ team near or dead-last in most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching. Looking at their numbers over the last 14 days in that split, it doesn’t get much better, as they own a putrid .256 wOBA and 25.4% K-rate.

The Tigers have lost the last four games by a combined deficit of 32 runs, and their last 11 losses have been by two runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 3 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (1.5-run line: +124)
KC: Brad Keller – R (2-4, 4.47 ERA/1.43 WHIP)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (1-3, 6.69 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

It was a good start to the season for Brad Keller, but things have certainly taken a turn for the worst. Keller has allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts with the only misnomer coming against the Tigers, who are the worst hitting team in the American League.

The Angels received a +0.5 IRT increase, which is tied for second-highest on tonight’s slate. Makes sense, considering their outstanding .407 wOBA, .238 ISO and 14.7% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. Over the course of the season against righties, the Angels rank first in K-rate (15.7%), second in wRC+ (120) and fourth in wOBA (.346).

Matt Harvey has looked much better of late, allowing two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. One of those outings came against the Royals, going seven innings and allowing two hits, three walks and one run while striking out five. KC’s offense has not been at its best of late, scoring one run or fewer four of the last five games and in five of the last seven.

Keller’s last four starts have all been Royals’ defeats by three runs or more, while the team has suffered some convincing losses already this week. Let’s take a chance here and get plus-money on our bet for this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 3 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-128) – Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-158)
PIT: Jordan Lyles – R (3-1, 2.09 ERA/1.09 WHIP)
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (3-2, 4.57 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

I almost feel like we can take last night’s game preview, copy/paste and replace the pitcher’s names. Don’t worry, I won’t.

Not much changed with the Pirates and their struggles against left-handed pitching on Thursday, as they posted a total of two runs against Eric Lauer and the Padres’ bullpen. Pittsburgh faces another lefty, Joey Lucchesi, and he comes into tonight’s start in better form than Lauer did. Certain trends have already followed teams from the beginning of this season, and this one is no different for the Pirates – they just simply can’t hit lefties well.

The Padres do have the third-highest IRT (+0.4) and moneyline (-130 to -158) increases on the slate, which is interesting. They have well below-average advanced metrics against right-handed pitching and Jordan Lyles has been quite solid this season, allowing two runs or fewer in all but one of his seven starts this season.

We can look to the first five innings total of 4.5 when figuring out how this game will play out. There’s a huge -160 amount of juice on the under there, so look for the Padres to capitalize on the Pirates’ bullpen late once again. Not trying to play God here, just looking at the numbers!

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, May 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 61-38-4 (61.6%) *

[6:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-104) – Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians (1.5-run line: -152)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-3, 8.23 ERA/1.83 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-2, 3.02 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

Dan Straily has actually been solid away from Camden Yards this season. Only two of his seven starts have come on the road and they were against the Red Sox and Twins, two of the better offenses in baseball. Straily allowed only one earned run over nine innings in those games.

It’s not like today’s opponent has been crushing the ball either. The Indians rank third-worst in all of MLB with a .282 wOBA (weight on-base average) against right-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days against righties, Cleveland’s projected lineup owns a .320 wOBA and .099 ISO – both of which, are not good at all. Not to mention, seven of the last eight Indians’ games have gone under the total.

Now, the real reason for the total going under is Trevor Bauer in a fantastic matchup against the Orioles. Bauer had a fantastic outing in Oakland last time out after two uncharacteristically-bad starts against lesser teams (MIA, CHW). This is still one of the best pitchers in baseball taking the mound against an offense that has scored three runs or fewer in seven of the last 10 games.

Just like the majority of Indians’ games coming in under the total, Orioles’ contests have suffered the same fate in 12 of their last 16, including each of the last four. Also, like Cleveland, Baltimore’s projected lineup is struggling against right-handed pitching with a .257 wOBA and .119 ISO over the last 14 days.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has the under in this game as the top MLB play of the night, and the zaftig juice (-152) on the 1.5-run line is a pretty good indicator that the Indians will get the comfortable win.

* Final Score Projection: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[6:40 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-114) – Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (moneyline: -135)
CHC: Jose Quintana – L (4-2, 3.50 ERA/1.25 WHIP)
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (4-1, 1.76 ERA/0.99 WHIP)

This may seem like a scary proposition with an 8.5-run total at one of the best hitting parks in baseball, but we do have two elite pitchers in solid form. The total has decreased incrementally in each game of this series, so we are trending in the right direction here.

I’m expecting a big performance from Luis Castillo, given the fact that Cincy’s moneyline odds have the second-highest increase (-110 to -135) of the day. The electric righty has been efficient in every split this season, especially with a 2-1 record and 1.65 ERA in five home starts, while going 4-0 with a 1.23 ERA in six nighttime starts.

Chicago had a streak of six straight games with the total going under snapped last night. Even though they posted five runs on Wednesday, four of them came via the home run – they won’t have that fortune tonight against Castillo.

Jose Quintana will be able to keep this Reds’ offense off the scoreboard for most of the night. Against tough competition (MIL, STL, ARZ, LAD), the lefty has been able to hold these team to three runs or fewer in each of the last four starts. Cincy has done fairly well against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days, and that is likely how they get the win, but I think JQ at least holds them to around three or four runs.

The SK Trend Confidence rating likes the under more than any other outcome in this game, but the massive moneyline increase for the Reds is quite telling here as well.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 5 – Chicago Cubs: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-110) – Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (moneyline: -125)
PIT: Trevor Williams – R (2-1, 3.40 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (2-4, 5.75 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

Eric Lauer is coming off his worst start of the season, which was a very tough road matchup at Coors Field, but the guy comes through when gifted with favorable matchups. The Pirates head to San Diego with MLB’s worst ISO (.091), third-worst wOBA (.266) and fifth-highest K-rate (28.2%) against left-handed pitching. Over the last 14 days, Pittsburgh has a .023 ISO – for reference, that’s a level or two above stepping to the plate without a bat.

San Diego’s offense hasn’t been much better, striking out at a 33% clip against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days – the highest of any split on the day. Trevor Williams needs all the help he can get, after allowing 25 hits over his last 19 innings of work. The righty has been able to keep runs off the board, for the most part, but those baserunners could ultimately be the determining factor in who wins tonight.

The game total has dropped a half-run, while the Padres (-0.2) and Pirates’ (-0.3) IRTs have dropped as well. Look for the Padres to take a close, low-scoring game.

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 3 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 29

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[7:10 p.m. EST] Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets (-1.5, +122)
CIN: Tanner Roark – R (1-1, 3.24 ERA)
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (2-2, 4.85 ERA)

The key to success for Zack Wheeler this season has been simple – don’t face the Nationals.
* WSH (twice): allowed 10 hits, 8 walks and 11 runs with 9 Ks over 9 2/3 innings
* PHI (twice)/ATL: allowed 16 hits, 6 walks and 5 runs with 24 Ks over 20 innings

Wheeler registered a quality start in each of the last three outings. His most impressive effort came in that last outing against the Phillies, throwing seven innings of a shutout ball while striking out 11 – a season high. Tonight, the Reds’ -0.4 IRT (implied run total) decrease is the largest on the board, and that’s just a further indicator that Wheeler is locked and loaded for his matchup.

Tanner Roark will face a familiar opponent, just doing in a different jersey this time around. The former Nationals pitcher has an 8-4 record with a 3.07 ERA in 22 appearances (16 starts) against the Mets lifetime. In fact, Roark has pitched very well in his last three starts, allowing only earned run in each of those.

Unlike the game you’ll read about below, I have more confidence in the Mets -1.5 run-line because of the recent performance of these respective bullpens. In terms of those fancy advanced metrics we all hate/love so much, the Mets’ bullpen ranks first in xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) and second in SIERA (skill-interactive earned run average) over the last seven days – The Reds rank ninth-worst in xFIP and fifth-worst in SIERA over the same span.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 5 – Cincinnati Reds: 1 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-164)
SD: Nick Margevicius – L (2-2, 3.60 ERA)
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (1-1, 1.69 ERA)

Lots of good trends for the Braves in this game, so let’s get a tomahawk chant going! The trends that stood out above all:
* Braves moneyline increase from -140 to -164 – highest on the slate
* Braves have the highest wOBA [weighted on-base average]: (.391) vs left-handed pitching
* Padres have the third-highest K-rate (27%) vs right-handed pitching

Mike Soroka takes the hill for Atlanta, and he has been fantastic in each of those two starts this season. The young righty has allowed only two runs over 10 2/3 innings while fanning 13 batters in the process.

Nick Margevicius goes for San Diego, and he is also another talented young hurler. However, his 1.08 WHIP looks a lot prettier due to two matchups against the Giants. In fact, Margevicius has come back down to Earth over the last two starts (vs. SEA, vs. COL), allowing 11 hits, six walks and seven runs over his last nine innings.

I would love to go with the Braves on the -1.5 run-line, but their bullpen is an absolute disaster right now. Without boring the non-traditional baseball fan to death, one of the best metrics (SIERRA) ranks Atlanta’s bullpen as the second-worst in MLB. For that reason, we’ll keep it simple with the ATL moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 5 – San Diego Padres: 4 *

[7:40 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -108) at Minnesota Twins
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (4-0, 2.61 ERA)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (2-2, 4.37 ERA)

Sure, the Twins lead MLB in homers per game (1.96) but they’ve had six matchups against Orioles’ pitching to thank for that. Tonight, Minnesota will face one of the best pitchers in baseball who has absolutely owned this current lineup.

Justin Verlander has held the Twins’ current roster to a combined .167 batting average, .210 on-base percentage, .325 slugging percentage and .535 OBP – yikes! In fact, the veteran righty just held Minnesota to one run while striking out eight batters over eight innings in his last outing. Verlander has allowed four or fewer hits in four of his six starts, including each of the last three. Not to mention, if Verlander slips in the slightest, the Astros’ bullpen ranks first in SIERA and xFIP this season.

All in all, this is just a flat-out mismatch of talent between the two starting pitchers this evening. Granted, Odorizzi did get the win in his last outing against these same Astros, but he did allow eight hits and found himself in trouble for most of the evening. I expect Houston to make him pay for those misfortunes this time around.

I’m going with the -1.5 run-line in this game because of that mismatch of starting pitchers, and the Astros have won by two runs or more in four of Verlander’s six starts this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Minnesota Twins: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Over 8 – Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Kenta Maeda – R (3-2, 5.20 ERA)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-1, 3.00 ERA)

Giants’ pitching was absolutely ripped in the three-game series against the Yankees over the weekend, allowing 24 runs, and life won’t get any easier with the Dodgers coming to town. Oracle Park is one of the worst venues for offense in all of MLB, hence why we’ve only seen one eight-run total there this season. The eight-run total in this game is quite interesting, considering it never got any higher than 7.5 in the three-game series at Dodger Stadium at the beginning of the month, but there is some solid reasoning to think we’ll see the fourth straight total go over the mark at Oracle Park.

The Dodgers do have the second-best wOBA (.356) vs right-handed pitching this season and three of the last four games that Jeff Samardzija has pitched in produced a double-digit number of runs.

On the flip side, the Giants have four batters with a .294 lifetime average or better against Kenta Maeda. Just like Samardzija, Maeda’s starts have been producing a lot of runs, with four of the five surrendering nine runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 5 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Value Betting Picks for Monday, April 8

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-0, 2.76 ERA)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Runs, runs, everyone loves some fun! If the last series against the Yankees was any indication of how bad Orioles’ pitching has been, fans sitting in the Camden Yards’ outfield tonight better bring their mitts to the stadium.

Both sides have seen their Implied Run Total (IRT) increase greatly since the opening lines came out, and that’s a telling sign when looking for offense on the slate. In fact, Oakland’s IRT jumped 0.6 runs (Baltimore at +0.4) since the open, which is the second-highest increase of any team today. Reason being, the A’s have seen Cashner very well over the course of their careers – specifically, Kendrys Morales (6-for-10, 3 HR, 2 BB, 0 K) and Khris Davis (6-for-17, 1 HR). The current roster actually has a combined .354 batting average and 1.078 OPS against Cashner over his career. Not to mention, the Orioles’ bullpen has allowed the most runs (36) in all of MLB this season.

Six of Baltimore’s nine games have gone over the total this season and this is shaping up to be another high-scoring affair. The SK value system has a +36% Trend Confidence in this one going over 12.5 runs, so that should blow right past the current total.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 4

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 10 –  Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
SEA: Felix Hernandez – R (1-0, 1.69 ERA)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (0-0, 5.40 ERA)

Sure, “King” Felix had a solid debut to the 2019 season, but we should remember that he’s typically been a much better pitcher at home over the course of his career. This is a pitcher that is clearly on a downward slope and Vegas has recognized that, giving KC the highest IRT increase (+0.7) on the entire slate.

Seattle has been rocking and rolling on offense, scoring the most runs (85) of any team in MLB, but they have also committed the most errors in the league as well. That, coupled with the fact that Homer Bailey will be on the mound for KC, makes this a great play on the over. Certainly going to have a few cleats touching home plate tonight!

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 9

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 – San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
SD: Eric Lauer – L (1-1, 3.27 ERA)
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (0-2, 1.38 ERA)

We’ve got a fantastic matchup of southpaw dealers at Oracle Park tonight as Bumgarner and Lauer take the hill. It’s interesting to note that MadBum has never started his career 0-3, which looks him squarely in the eye tonight. I’d expect him to know this and take that as a personal challenge, thus leading to an epic performance.

Lauer is a very underrated pitcher that people will learn about sooner than later, but his last start didn’t fare too well against the D-Backs. He did, however, skill the Giants on Opening Day, allowing only four hits and one walk over six innings while striking out three hitters. Lauer’s ability, and the Giants’ lack of offense, set the stage for a low-scoring pitcher’s duel in San Francisco.

Bettors on the under would be fascinated to know that each of the first four matchups between these teams have landed on the under.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 3 – San Diego Padres: 2

MLB Betting Preview for Saturday, April 6 (Afternoon Games)

By Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at New York Mets  – Total: 7
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (0-0, 3.00 ERA)
NYM: Steven Matz – L (0-0, 1.69 ERA)

The total of seven is quite interesting in this game, as both pitchers haven’t had too much success against each of these teams. Matz is 1-5 with a 3.93 ERA in 10 career starts against the Nationals, while Corbin is 1-4 with a 4.86 ERA in nine starts (10 appearances) against the Mets. Not to mention, both teams had a day of rest yesterday, while the Mets’ bullpen has a 5.21 ERA this season and the Nats’ bullpen has an MLB-worst 10.38 ERA.

It should be no surprise that I’m rolling with the over in this game…

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 5 – New York Mets: 4

[2:05 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins at Philadelphia Phillies (-150) – Total: 8
MIN: Michael Pineda – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (1-0, 1.50 ERA)

Arrieta struggled with some control issues in his season debut but still managed to wiggle out by giving up only one run. It’s the offense behind him, though, that makes the Phillies such an appealing bet. After all, they have scored at least eight runs in all but one of their six games this season.

Those bats will need to be sharp today against Pineda, who is a very talented pitcher but also has a tight leash as he eases his way back to a normal workload after missing nearly a year and a half.

All in all, the Phils are a more talented team and should take over late when these teams end up going to their respective bullpens.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Minnesota Twins: 3

[2:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners (-110) at Chicago White Sox – Total: 8.5
SEA: Mike Leake – R (1-0, 3.00 ERA)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (1-0, 2.70 ERA)

In yesterday’s preview for this matchup, I mentioned the White Sox defense could be in serious trouble with eight errors (fourth-worst in MLB) over five games. Well, it ended up being the Mariners’ defense that cost their team the loss, with three errors, now totaling an MLB-worst 16 of them in nine games.

So, two teams that have been terrible on defense… what could go wrong? Everything, and that’s why I’m going with the over once again in this matchup. Six of Seattle’s nine games have gone over the total, while five of Chicago’s six games have done the same. Not to mention, a few of these White Sox hitters have hit Leake well when they’ve seen him.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5

MLB Betting Preview for Friday, April 5 (Afternoon Games)

[2:10 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners (-130) at Chicago White Sox – Total: 8
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (0-0, 2.53 ERA)
CHW: Reynaldo Lopez – R (0-1, 9.00 ERA)

The Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox are two teams heading in opposite directions to start the 2019 campaign. Seattle has been absolutely raking, scoring 56 runs over the first eight games this season. On the other hand, Chicago cannot seem to get out of its own way, committing eight errors over the first five games.

To me, this one is simple, as the Mariners and their offensive ways should be able to put plenty of pressure on the White Sox defense and continue their suffering. Not to mention, Mariners’ starter Yusei Kikuchi is legit, and there’s not much tape on him. Expect the White Sox offense to struggle quite a bit seeing him for the first time in regular season action.

Seattle moneyline is the play here…

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 9 – Chicago White Sox: 3

[4:10 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Dodgers (-129) at Colorado Rockies – Total: 10.5
LAD: Kenta Maeda – R (1-0, 4.05 ERA)
COL: Tyler Anderson – L (0-1, 9.00 ERA)

Speaking of offenses that are clicking, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been rockin’ and rolling with 55 runs scored through the first seven games – unsurprisingly, Dodgers’ games have gone over the total in six of those seven. Justin Turner is 13-for-28 with four extra-base hits (1 HR) against today’s Colorado Rockies’ starter Tyler Anderson, so hopefully, his scouting report will give an upper-hand advantage to the rest of his Dodgers’ teammates — not that they really need it nowadays.

After posting six runs in each of their first two games, the Rockies have only scored five runs in their last five. We can attribute that to some very solid pitching performances from the opposition and possibly being out of that Rocky Mountain environment for too long. Well, now the Rockies are heading back to the high altitude where the team is much more comfortable. If Colorado can get Kenta Maeda out of the game early, its offense can take advantage of a Dodgers bullpen that has not been great early on, allowing the fourth-most runs in MLB so far this season.

Typically, offenses don’t bode well at Coors Field in the first month of the season, but today’s environment should play more like a game in May or June. Temperatures are expected to be damn-near perfect in the upper 60s for baseball today in Denver.

Over 10.5 is the play here, with the Dodgers swinging hot bats and the Rockies coming back to Denver for some home cooking on the offensive end…

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 8 – Colorado Rockies: 7

[4:15 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals – Total: 7.5
SD: Nick Margevicius (0-1, 1.80 ERA)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (0-0. 8.31 ERA)

St. Louis Cardinals’ starter Jack Flaherty has a very bright future ahead of him, but proving that in the season debut was a lot tougher against a potent Milwaukee Brewers lineup. Today, he’ll go head-to-head with San Diego Padres’ little-known rookie Nick Margevicius, who had an impressive debut, albeit, against a weak San Francisco Giants’ lineup. It’s too early to pinpoint the outlook on Margevicius, considering he has only made two starts above the Single-A level – one in Double-A, one in MLB – but it is worth noting that his control has been quite magnificent early on in his minor-league career.

With all that being said, the moment of the Cards’ home opener at Busch Stadium could prove to be too much for the young lefty. Not only that, but Flaherty should improve greatly from his season debut and have a great performance against a Padres’ lineup that hasn’t been that impressive on offense.

Cardinals on the moneyline is the play here…

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 5 – San Diego Padres: 2

[4:35 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants – Total: 7
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (1-0, 1.80 ERA)
SF: Dereck Rodriguez – R (1-0, 3.60 ERA)

This is an excellent matchup of young hurlers taking place at Oracle Park today, between Tyler Glasnow of the Tampa Bay Rays and Dereck Rodriguez of the San Francisco Giants. Not only that, but neither team’s offense has really gotten off to a great start either.

It may be simple, and it may be short, but there is just one trend in this game that you can’t ignore. Especially, when the game is being played in San Francisco – a place where offense go to die.

That trend, you were asking for? All seven of the Rays’ games have gone under the total, while five of the seven Giants’ games have suffered the same fate.

Under seven runs is the play here, and I’ll give the Giants the win in their home opener. What a nice guy I am…

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2