Tag: San Francisco Giants

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, August 6

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 189-136-8 (58.2%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 25-4-1 record over the last 30 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. For people like Tony Stugots, who will undoubtedly question every single thing we do, you can click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (6-6, 3.80 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
SF: Conner Menez – L (0-0, 3.60 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Giants-Nationals game. We’re going with the under on this one, considering the game will be played in extreme pitching conditions.

We all know Oracle Park as one of, if not, the worst venues for offense in baseball. However, things get even worse towards the end of the season with the temperatures dropping like crazy by the bay. The forecast temperatures in the low-60s, moving into the upper-50s as day turns to night. These lower temperatures cause the ball to have a lot less carry to it.

Also, if you see that the wind is blowing out at 11 mph – it doesn’t matter. Oracle Park is designed in a way so that whether the wind is blowing towards the plate or the outfield, it has no effect whatsoever.

As for the game itself, Anibal Sanchez will probably be the guy we rely on more. It’s quite surprising, but he’s actually allowed three runs or fewer in 17 of his 20 starts this season. Sanchez has a great history against the Giants, going 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA in seven lifetime starts, and even more impressive is his 3-0 record and 0.58 ERA in four starts at Oracle Park – two of which, were complete-game shutouts.

The Giants offense has sputtered after a great stretch of games throughout late-June and early-July. Over the last 21 days, they own a dreadful .303 weighted on-base average and .103 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching.

What’s even more surprising is the Nationals inability to hit left-handed pitching in recent games. After tearing them up at the beginning of the season, Washington now owns .278 weighted on-base average and .109 ISO numbers over the last 21 days against lefties.

Conner Menez made his MLB debut back on July 21, allowing two runs over five innings against the Mets. He was sent back down to the minors after that start, but a lot of these Giants execs have done nothing but gloat about the kid.

We’re probably not looking at Menez pitching the game of his life, but it’s all about moderation here. A similar performance to his MLB debut, allowing two runs in five innings before handing it off to the bullpen, is what we should expect.

Giants games have gone under the total in eight of the last 11 games – with one push – and a good amount of those came on the road. Look for them to struggle once again and the Nationals to add just a couple more runs to get the win.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 3 – San Francisco Giants: 1

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, July 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 151-122-7 (55.3%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Cleveland Indians (ML: -170) at Toronto Blue Jays
CLE: Mike Clevinger – R (3-2, 3.57 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
TOR: Ryan Borucki – L (season debut)

The SpreadKnowledge system has the Indians moneyline (-170) as the third-most outcome on today’s slate, making them one of three teams to receive an A-grade. Cleveland owns a 28-11 record since June 4, which is best in MLB over that span. Not to mention, the Indians swept a four-game series against the Blue Jays earlier this season.

After a couple of rough outings coming off the injured list, Mike Clevinger has gotten back on track with three starts of allowing one run or fewer. In those outings, he pitched a total of 17 innings and allowed only two runs and a 1.00 WHIP while striking out 27 batters.

The Blue Jays 3.9 implied total is the third-lowest on today’s entire schedule of games. For whatever it’s worth, Clevinger pitched five innings of shutout ball against Toronto back on April 7 and struck out 10 batters in the process.

We don’t have much to go on for Ryan Borucki, who has been limited to four minor league rehab outings this season. He will, however, run into a Cleveland offense that has a .366 weighted on-base average and .225 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.
Look for the Indians to keep rolling over a Blue Jays that finally gets to come back home after a tough 10-game road trip to open the second half of the season.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 2

[8:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (ML: +217) at Houston Astros
OAK: Homer Bailey – R (8-6, 4.69 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (10-5, 3.12 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system is ranking the A’s as one of the most valuable plays on the board tonight at +217 on the moneyline. It won’t be easy, as the Astros send Gerrit Cole to the mound, but there are a few reasons to think Oakland can pull off the upset on Monday.

Homer Bailey had a solid outing in his first start with the A’s, and he’s certainly capable of a repeat performance in this matchup, albeit against an Astros team that is as good as any in MLB. It is worth noting, though, that Bailey is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA/0.92 WHIP in eight career starts against the Astros.

The A’s will need to be on top of their game if they plan of making up any ground in the AL West race, sitting 6.5 games behind the Astros. They’ll have to go through Cole, who has been on top of his game recently. But there is reason to think we could see him falter a little bit against a talented A’s lineup.

Oakland has zaftig .393 weighted on-base average and .282 ISO numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Not to mention, the A’s have a 21-7 record since June 17, so we’re getting tons of value on a quality team here tonight.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland A’s: 4 – Houston Astros: 3

[9:45 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs (ML: -112) at San Francisco Giants
CHC: Alec Mills – R (0-0, 4.50 ERA/1.00 WHIP)
SF: Shaun Anderson – R (3-2, 4.87 ERA/1.50 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has the Cubs moneyline (-112) as the second-most likely outcome on tonight’s slate. After all, Chicago is 9-3 over the last 12 games and we’re getting an extremely good price on them in a matchup they should excel in.

Shaun Anderson takes the mound for the Giants, and he’s been getting hit around with great regularity. Over his last 13 1/3 innings, Anderson has allowed a total of 22 hits and 13 runs. The Cubs have been finding most of their success lately from the pitching, but this is a great spot for the offense to have a big night at Oracle Park. It’s really been the key players (Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez) in the zone for this team lately, and a couple of good performances from these guys should have them comfortably in the lead for most of the night.

Alec Mills made his season debut on Tuesday, going six innings and allowing three runs. It wasn’t a performance worthy of hanging on our hat on tonight but looking at Mills career numbers, the 1.17 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings show that he’s off to a good start.

The Giants had a string of games where they were pounding the baseball, but their advanced
metrics against right-handed pitching took a big dip upon returning back to their home ballpark. Look for Mills to keep the San Francisco offense at bay for most of the night, and ultimately get the win.

* Final Score Prediction * Chicago Cubs: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, July 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 140-113-6 (55.3%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (1.5-run line: -134)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (1-5, 8.36 ERA/1.75 WHIP)
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (3-3, 4.00 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

It has been a rough go of things for the Tigers against the Indians, losing nine of the 10 meetings this season, including each of the last eight. In fact, Cleveland has outscored Detroit by a total of 63-27 in those contests. Tonight’s -260 moneyline number for the Indians matches their highest of the season, so I feel comfortable taking the 1.5-run line here and saving some money to lay.

Things won’t get any better for the Tigers tonight as they send Ryan Carpenter out to the hill. The lefty has a 7.95 ERA/1.73 WHIP in 14 career MLB appearances, including a 12.38 ERA/2.50 WHIP in two starts against the Indians. Carpenter has allowed at least seven hits in six of his eight starts, and that’ll be a dangerous proposition to do such a thing against such a talented lineup.

Since the beginning of July, Cleveland has posted seven runs or more five times, with all of those big totals coming against lesser-talented teams – just like the one it’ll see tonight. Detroit’s bullpen owns the fifth-worst ERA (5.01) in baseball and the team, as a whole, has allowed exactly eight runs in three of its four games since the All-Star break.

On the other side, Zach Plesac has been excellent to start his MLB career, allowing two runs or fewer in five of his first eight starts. The rookie right-hander had a great outing against the Tigers back on June 23, allowing five hits, one walk and one run, while inducing a season-high 10 ground-ball outs over seven innings en route to an 8-3 Indians’ victory.

The Tigers’ offense has been struggling all season, but especially against right-handed pitching, as they own the second-worst wOBA (.286) in baseball in that split – just a fraction above the MLB-worst Marlins.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 2

[8:15 p.m. EST] Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (ML: -175)
PIT: Dario Agrazal – R (2-0, 2.81 ERA/1.31 WHIP)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-6, 4.64 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

We’ve had glimpses of Jack Flaherty displaying the type of dominance he’s capable of, but he hasn’t done it consistently. If that last outing before the break – allowing two hits, one walk and one run over seven innings – against a red-hot Giants lineup is any indication of where Flaherty is heading, we’re in for a treat tonight.

Not only has Flaherty pitched better at home this season, but he’s also done well against the Pirates lifetime. The righty has a 3-1 record to go along with a 2.48 ERA/1.00 WHIP in five career starts.

The Pirates have lost four straight since the All-Star break, while the Cardinals have won their last three games. Not to mention, Pittsburgh has only scored a total of 10 runs in those four games.

Dario Agrazal has been great for the Pirates since making his debut on June 15. However, he’s shown a huge weakness early on, allowing right-handed batters to hit for .353 average, compared to lefties hitting .148. The Cardinals lineup will have plenty of right-handed power coming at Agrazal tonight, so look for the rookie to take the first loss of his career.

All in all, we’ve got two teams heading in opposite directions. We like the Cardinals to continue their winning ways over a struggling Pirates team. Vegas did give the Cardinals a nice +0.4 IRT (implied run total) increase, which is actually the highest for any team on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2

[8:15 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 – Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
CHW: Dylan Cease – R (1-0, 5.40 ERA/1.60 WHIP)
KC: Glenn Sparkman – R (2-5, 5.18 ERA/1.40 WHIP)

Whenever the Royals and White Sox have gotten together this season, runs have not been showing up on the scoreboard. In fact, nine of the 12 meetings between the teams have gone under the total – just as it did last night. We’re looking for more of the same tonight, as the SpreadKnowledge system has the total going under in this game as the top-rated play on the entire slate.

Glenn Sparkman may not be the greatest pitcher in baseball, but he certainly knows what he’s doing at Kauffman Stadium. The righty has a 2-2 record to go along with a 2.19 ERA/1.11 WHIP in nine appearances there this season. Sparkman’s last three outings at home have been against quality opponents (Twins, White Sox, Red Sox), and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of those.

The White Sox offense has been dreadful against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .292 xwOBA (quality of contact) and .126 ISO (power metric). For reference, we want to see xwOBA in the .350s and higher, while ISO is preferred in the .200s or better. Sparkman won’t get many strikeouts, but perhaps he can see an uptick since the White Sox have been striking out around 25% of the time over that span against righties.

Five of the last six White Sox games have gone under the total, and their offense is a big reason why as they posted no more than three runs in any of those contests.

Dylan Cease made his debut for Chicago on July 3, his only MLB outing up to this point. He allowed three runs over five innings while striking out six Tigers, so there’s not a ton to go off there. However, Cease should certainly benefit from facing a Royals lineup that has similar .293 xwOBA and .137 ISO numbers to his own team’s offense against righties over the last 21 days. Not to mention, the Royals are striking out just over 25% of the time against right-handed pitching over that span.

Four of the last six Royals games have gone under the total, with the only two overs coming against a weak collection of Tigers’ arms.

* Final Score Prediction * Kansas City Royals: 4 – Chicago White Sox: 3

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 14.5 – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (2-9, 6.42 ERA/1.77 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-1, 6.67 ERA/1.48 WHIP)

We missed the boat on the total going over in the second half of last night’s doubleheader, but Vegas is liking the bats to get back to action tonight. The game total has increased from 14.0 to 14.5, with both teams getting a +0.3 increase on their IRT (implied run total) – usually a good sign that offense is on the horizon. After playing two games yesterday, expect each team’s bullpen to be less effective than usual.

Drew Pomeranz has gotten absolutely ripped away from Oracle Park this season, posting a 1-4 record and 9.76 ERA/1.99 WHIP in seven starts. While he has done a decent job against the Rockies, Pomeranz has yet to face them at Coors Field.

Colorado’s offense has some issues it’s working through, especially after scoring a total of three runs in yesterday’s doubleheader, but this is a great spot to get back on the good foot. The star-studded lineup including Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story is not built to have long stretches of ineffectiveness.

Peter Lambert goes for the Rockies, and his brief time in the MLB and has been nothing short of miserable. Over his last four starts (17 2/3 innings), the rookie has allowed 30 hits, 20 runs and eight homers.

The Giants’ offense has been rocking and rolling, with at least seven runs in eight of the last 12 games. Prior to the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader, Rockies’ pitching had allowed 45 runs in the previous three contests.

According to the SpreadKnowledge system, the total going over is our second-strongest play of the night. Granted, we’re shooting for a sky-high total, but we’ve got plenty of reasons to know it’ll come through.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 12 – San Francisco Giants: 9

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, July 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 139-111-6 (55.6%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (ML: -155)
TB: Blake Snell – L (5-7, 4.70 ERA/1.29 WHIP)
NYY: James Paxton – L (5-4, 4.01 ERA/1.43 WHIP)

Blake Snell has certainly not lived up to the billing in the season after winning the AL Cy Young award. This has been especially true against the Yankees, and this will be the fourth time they’ve seen him in a span of 11 starts. We’ve talked about this more than a few times – the more a team sees a pitcher, the more comfortable they get.

While he does have 26 strikeouts in 17 innings against the Yankees this season, Snell has also allowed 17 hits, nine walks and 10 runs in four starts. Not to mention, the lefty’s 2-4 record and 6.48 ERA on the road has been much worse than his 3-3 record and 3.17 ERA at Tropicana Field. In fact, Snell’s last four road starts have seen him allow a total of 25 hits, eight walks and 20 runs over a span of 14 innings.

James Paxton has a fantastic matchup against a Rays team that owns the third-highest K-rate (26%) and ninth-worst wOBA (.310) against left-handed pitching this season. That was never more evident than in Paxton’s last start when he fanned 11 Rays and only allowed two runs over six innings.

Paxton had an uncharacteristically-bad start against the Blue Jays back on June 26, but four of his last five starts have seen him allow two runs or fewer.

The Yankees are on an excellent run, winning 18 of their last 23 games. They also have a 31-10 record against AL East opponents and a magnificent 15-2 record at home when favored by -125 to -175 on the moneyline this season.

According to our graded picks today, the Yankees (on moneyline or 1.5-run line) have the best trends on today’s entire schedule of games. It also likes the total going under, considering Yankees’ games have done that in seven of the last nine while Rays’ games have done the same in four of the last six.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 5 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 10 – Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
ATL: Max Fried – L (9-4, 4.29 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (4.01 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

With two talented offenses going up against one another, it may seem like a crazy idea to take the under, but that’s exactly what we’re doing here. And Vegas is on our side, decreasing the game total from 10.5 to 10.0, with both sides having their IRT (implied run total) decrease by -0.3 runs, which is tied for highest on today’s entire slate.

When the teams faced off in May, two of the three games went under the total. Also, Braves’ games have gone under the total in 14 of the last 20 while the Brewers offense has just been sputtering since the end of June.

Max Fried wasn’t effective in his last two starts before the All-Star break, but he’s a young kid and the time off could certainly do him some good. The lefty has looked sharp for the most part this season, and his May 17 performance against these same Brewers was nothing short of masterful. In six innings, Fried allowed only two hits and two walks while not coughing up any runs.

The Brewers’ offense hasn’t been great recently against lefties either. Over the last 21 days, Milwaukee owns a very pedestrian .321 wOBA, .145 ISO and 27.2% K-rate against southpaws.

Adrian Houser probably won’t be the reason this game goes under the total, but he can sure help us out a bit. The righty’s splits have been unbelievably tilted, with him posting a 1.88 ERA at Miller Park, compared to a 5.08 ERA on the road. While the Braves have been winning a lot of games, they have scored only four runs or fewer in four of the last six.

Atlanta has been playing a lot of low-scoring games lately, so that plays right into our hands and exactly what Vegas is thinking with the decreased game totals and IRTs.

* Final Score Prediction * Atlanta Braves: 4 – Milwaukee Brewers: 3

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 14 – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Dereck Rodriguez – R (5.27 ERA/1.44 WHIP)
COL: Chi Chi Gonzalez – R (6.00 ERA/1.89 WHIP)

Well, the first game of today’s day-night doubleheader is certainly where we want to be for the second part. At the time of this writing being released, the Giants are up 16-2 in the seventh inning and the Rockies left German Marquez out there to take a good portion of this thumping.

Nonetheless, the Rockies will likely need to use some more arms to close out this game, and they just announced Chi Chi Gonzalez as the starter for tonight’s game. While he doesn’t have a ton of MLB experience, Gonzalez has issued plenty of walks, and putting numerous guys on base for one of the hottest offenses in baseball doesn’t seem to bode well for his chances.

This is a Giants’ offense that has now scored at least seven runs in eight of their last 11 games. It is truly unfathomable to believe that this could ever happen. Especially, with Evan Longoria on the injured list now.

While the Rockies’ offense looks awful in the first game today, you have to expect them to come back with something strong tonight. Prior to today’s debacle, the Rockies’ offense posted a total of 19 runs over the previous two days against a strong batch of Reds’ arms. Rodriguez has been getting ripped with great regularity this season, so guys like Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond and David Dahl can certainly make life difficult on him.

Vegas loves the idea of more runs being scored in the second half of the doubleheader. The game total spiked from 13.5 to 14.0, with both teams’ IRTs (implied run totals) increasing by +0.3. Also, today’s first part of the doubleheader was the third-straight game in which 17 runs (and they’re still going) have been scored at Coors Field.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 10 – San Francisco Giants: 8

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, July 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 136-110-5 (55.3%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (10-4, 3.15 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (8-6, 3.61 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

Two talented righties take the mound at Progressive Field in their first start since the All-Star break.

Jake Odorizzi definitely needed the break to regather himself. The veteran’s last four outings haven’t gone well, but we can attribute some of those woes to a blister on his pitching hand and matchups against teams that have done well against him over the course of his career. Now that everything is healed up, look for Odorizzi to get back to his usually-dominant self.

Recently, Odorizzi had six of seven outings where he allowed one run or fewer. He actually had a season-high 11 strikeouts and allowed one hit (a solo homer) over six innings against the Indians in his only matchup against them in 2019. All in all, Odorizzi’s numbers are fairly solid against a good portion of the current Cleveland lineup so we should see plenty of continued success.

The guy we’re really banking on to have a good outing is Trevor Bauer, who has been a thorn in the side of a good majority of the Twins’ lineup. Now, his last outing against Minnesota isn’t one that we want to see again, but he does have 16 strikeouts in 15 innings against them this season.

Bauer had a few hiccups, but his good outings have been better than ever recently. In fact, Bauer has allowed one run or fewer in four of his last six starts.

Five of the last eight Twins’ games have gone under the total and we’re looking to see more of the same this evening. The SK system has the under on this game graded as the third-best pick on our MLB board today.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 4 – Minnesota Twins: 3

[7:15 p.m. EST] Over 9 – San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (5-7, 4.03 ERA/1.20 WHIP)
MIL: Zach Davies – R (7-2, 3.07 ERA/1.38 WHIP)

Madison Bumgarner hasn’t been at his best on the road this season, registering a 2-5 record and 4.60 ERA away from Oracle Park. He did face the Brewers back on June 15, allowing five hits, three walks and five runs (three earned) over six innings – the final score in that game was 8-7, in favor of the Giants.

The key to the total going over could surprisingly be the suddenly potent Giants’ offense. It’s hard to believe, but this offense has posted at least seven runs in six of the last eight games – subsequently, the total has gone over in seven of those games. That also includes a 10-run output last night at Miller Park against these same Brewers.

Zach Davies had plenty of bad outings of late, and most of his success came in a whopping four starts against the Pirates in a span of seven outings. Thankfully, the Pirates aren’t in the ballpark tonight – it’ll be the Giants, and I can’t imagine too many people thought we’d be saying that.

Also playing in San Francisco’s favor is the fact that Milwaukee has allowed at least six runs in each of the last four games – all four of those games have gone over the total.

Vegas sees the value in the total going over tonight, as they’ve adjusted the game total from 8.5 to 9.0, with the IRT (implied run totals) increasing +0.3 for both sides.

All in all, the SK system is quite fond of the total going over in this game, making its B+ grade the fourth-highest on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 5

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 113-94-4 (54.6%) *

[6:40 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-102) Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners
KC: Brad Keller – R (3-8, 3.97 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (7-6, 4.50 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

The only trend with an A-grade in today’s SpreadKnowledge Trend Confidence rating is for the total going over in this game. It makes plenty of sense, considering 11 of the Mariners’ last 14 games have done such.

A big reason for today’s optimistic thinking is Marco Gonzalez, who has been ripped at T-Mobile Field this season. The lefty owns a 6.53 ERA and 1.60 WHIP to go along with an opposing batting average of .312 in eight home starts. In comparison, Gonzalez owns a 2.77 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with an opposing batting average of .244 on the road. Apparently, someone likes hotel linens.

The numbers for Gonzales are also brutal in daytime starts, with a 6.75 ERA and 1.86 WHIP with a .331 opposing batting average in six such outings.

If Gonzales gets beat up early, Seattle’s bullpen hasn’t been much better of late. Only the Orioles’ pen has allowed more runs over the last seven days, and only two pens have allowed more homers over the same stretch.

KC’s bats have been performing very well over the last three games, with a total of 23 runs in that stretch.

Brad Keller will take the mound for the Royals, and while he’s pitched well over the last two starts, I don’t think he’ll keep it up too much longer. Allowing baserunners have been an issue at times this season and the Mariners have plenty of speed on basepaths to make things uncomfortable for him. I don’t see Keller getting destroyed, but certainly allowing enough runs to comfortably get us over the total.

Vegas elevated the total of this game up to 9.0, from its original spot 8.5, with the IRTs increased for both teams – Mariners: +0.3, Royals: +0.2.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates (1.5-run line: +100)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-4, 5.93 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
PIT: Trevor Williams – R (2-1, 3.33 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

We rarely talk about the Pirates putting a thumping on teams, but tonight seems like a good time to start. Pittsburgh had more than a full-run IRT increase from 4.3 to 5.6, which is usually a glowing sign of success. The Pirates’ -200 number on the moneyline is their highest (by far) of the season. It’s also worth noting they’re a whopping 22-8 in the last 30 inter-league games.

A big reason for the massive favoritism is Trevor Williams, who owns a 2-0 record, 0.95 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in three career starts against the Tigers. One of those starts came back in April, as Williams allowed only two runs over six innings en route to getting the win.

Since this is Williams’ first start in a little over a month, I doubt he’ll go more than five innings – maybe six if all goes well. Not to worry, Pittsburgh’s bullpen has allowed the second-fewest runs (4) in MLB over the last seven days, and that’s even with facing the 10th-most batters (107) over that span.

Speaking of returning after a long stint on the injured list, Jordan Zimmermann will be doing the same. Things weren’t going well at all before that stint, and Zimmerman got rocked in his rehab outing in Triple-A on Thursday. The righty allowed four runs, including two homers, over 4 2/3 innings down on the farm for Toledo.

The big difference here is that Pittsburgh has done well against Zimmermann over the course of his career. In 98 plate appearances, the Pirates’ current roster owns a combined .326 batting average and .990 OPS to go along with six homers against him.

All in all, Vegas has spoken with the massive moneyline and IRT increases. I’m taking the Pirates on the 1.5-run line and shedding some money to lay out. The SK Trend Confidence rating also has a strong B+ grade on the total going over in this game, and that should have a lot to do with the Pirates’ success.

* Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh Pirates: 10 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-106) – San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (2-6, 6.43 ERA/1.73 WHIP)
LAD: Rich Hill – L (4-1, 2.60 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a very strong lean (B+ grade) for the total going under in this game. Reason being, 13 of the Dodgers’ last 18 games have suffered that fate.

Rich Hill has been outstanding over his last six starts, allowing two runs or fewer in all of them – the only misnomer went for three runs. The strikeouts are starting to come back for Hill, who now has a total of 59 in 52 innings of work this season. San Fran has been downright awful against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .237 wOBA, .046 ISO and 28% K-rate. Good luck with all that.

While Hill doesn’t typically go too deep into games, that’s alright. The Dodgers’ bullpen owns the lowest ERA in MLB over the last seven and 14 days – another big reason why the total has been going under in a lot of their games recently.

We haven’t looked at Drew Pomeranz as a solid pitcher most of this season, but that hasn’t been the case lately. The lefty now has back-to-back appearances of allowing no earned runs, with one of those performances coming against these same Dodgers. Not to mention, the current Dodgers’ roster owns a combined .179 batting average and .235 on-base percentage in 101 career plate appearances against Pomeranz.

Vegas likes the under here, moving the total from 8.0 to 7.5 and both teams’ IRTs suffer because of that – Dodgers: -0.3, Giants: -0.2.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Finals – Game 4: Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors (-4.5, -110/ML: -196)

Here we go! The Golden State Warriors find themselves in a familiar 1-2 hole, a place they have climbed out of before three times en route to a title in previous years. I do think the safer route to go is with the Warriors on the moneyline, but it also means we’re going to have to put up a lot in order to do so.

Golden State will have Klay Thompson back in the lineup, albeit not at 100 percent. We can even make the argument that Steve Kerr knew exactly what he was doing, resting Klay in Game 3 and sacrificing the battle for the war. Regardless, his presence will force Toronto to focus on him, and give the Warriors’ role players more room to operate on the offensive end. Look for DeMarcus Cousins to be more focused and take a vengeful approach to this contest after Marc Gasol thoroughly outplayed him in Game 3.

The Raptors have plenty of firepower that has shown up as the playoffs have gone along, but let’s pump the breaks a bit. Danny Green had an outstanding Game 3, and you have to think the Warriors get all up in his grill. Kawhi Leonard will always be the focal point of the Raptors’ offense but look for Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala to turn up the defensive intensity a bit.

Speaking of Dray, we know he always turns it up a bit when the Warriors’ backs are against the wall. FanDuel Sportsbook has his odds to get a triple-double at +220 tonight. Essentially, they’re saying it’s going to happen – the next closest player is Stephen Curry at +2600. If that’s the case, and Dray gets the trip-dub, the Warriors are probably going to win this game.

How many times have we seen the Warriors look like they were dead in the water, and then pop up right back up with the good stuff? I’d love to take the Warriors at -4.5, but Klay’s status is one that could ultimately determine how close the game is. Let’s play it safe…

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 110 – Toronto Raptors: 107 *


* 2019 MLB Record: 96-78-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at New York Mets (1.5-run line: +116)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (4-4, 5.33 ERA/1.59 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.49 ERA/1.15 WHIP)

Jacob deGrom certainly hasn’t been at his best this season, but tonight’s opponent will certainly be a welcome sight. The right-handed ace has absolutely dominated the Rockies over the course of his career, as the current roster owns a putrid .167 batting average and .189 on-base percentage in 111 plate appearances. I think the most amazing takeaway from this is that deGrom has allowed only one earned run in 30 innings when pitching against the Rockies at Citi Field.

Antonio Senzatela got away with facing a downtrodden Blue Jays offense in his last start, but he did allow nine hits in each of the two outings before that. Not to mention, this guy can’t stop walking people – in the month of May, Senzatela issued 15 free passes over 29 2/3 innings.

deGrom is going to dominate the Rockies once again, as evidenced by the zaftig moneyline given by Vegas. I do think we can steal some money here, going with the 1.5-run line (at +114) as opposed to the massive moneyline which is at -210.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 5 – Colorado Rockies: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 7.5 (-106) – Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (6-1, 1.41 ERA/0.91 WHIP)
MIA: Jose Urena – R (4-6, 4.14 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

Jose Urena has actually pitched very well of late, with a quality start in each of his last five outings. However, the last time he failed to do so came against the same Braves’ team he’ll see tonight – Urena allowed five runs over six innings in that game. In fact, Atlanta has performed quite well against the righty in recent history, with at least four runs against him in each of the last three meetings — five runs against him in each of the last two meetings.

Before scoring one run in Pittsburgh on get-away day yesterday, Atlanta scored 33 runs in the previous four games.

Mike Soroka finally showed signs that he’s human in that last start against the Tigers, allowing four runs (three earned) over 6 2/3 innings. The Marlins also had a one-run get-away day yesterday, but they too went bananas in the previous four games, scoring 42 runs over that span. I’m not saying Soroka is going to get beat over the head, but I do think Miami can put up at least three runs here and add to the total.

All in all, I feel like the 7.5 total is certainly a level that could be reached tonight. Both of these teams have been hot offensively, and Atlanta’s history of success against Urena is well-documented.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Miami Marlins: 3 *

[10:15 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -144) at San Francisco Giants
LAD: Clayton Kershaw – L (5-0, 3.20 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (1-6, 8.08 ERA/1.87 WHIP)

Clayton Kershaw takes his unbeaten record into Oracle Park tonight against a Giants team that ranks dead-last in wOBA (.268) against left-handed pitching. Yes, this is the same Giants team that allowed Jason Vargas to throw a complete-game shutout against them earlier this week. That, right there, is really all the evidence I need, and I reeeeeally should just end it there.

But I won’t. I’m an elite-level sports betting journalist… or so it says on my Hinge profile.

Kershaw has owned San Francisco over the course of his career, going 22-10 with a 1.70 ERA, six complete games and five shutouts in 44 starts. Not to mention, the current Giants’ lineup has a putrid .198 batting average and .231 on-base percentage against Kershaw in 360 plate appearances. It’s no surprise that the Giants’ 3.0 IRT is the lowest on tonight’s slate.

Drew Pomeranz takes the mound for the Giants and he’s glad the calendar has flipped to June – not that it’ll do him any good. The month of May was an absolute disaster as he wound up with a 19.16 ERA (yes, that is correct), 22 runs allowed in 10 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers haven’t been outstanding against left-handed pitching of late, but seeing Pomeranz should increase their metrics quite a bit. After all, the Dodgers are ninth in wOBA (.332) against lefties this season, but their .307 mark over the last 14 days in that split is just more of a testament to the pitchers they’ve faced.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, June 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 89-71-4 (55.6%) *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-108) – San Francisco Giants (ML: -136) at Baltimore Orioles
SF: Shaun Anderson – R (0-1, 4.80 ERA/1.53 WHIP)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-6, 6.71 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

These two teams combined to score 11 runs in the first inning last night and it looks like we should see plenty of the same tonight.

For one, Orioles’ starter David Hess has been doing nothing but getting ripped all over the yard. To give you an idea of how bad it’s been, the righty has allowed four runs or more in seven of his last nine outings – yikes! Not to mention, Hess has now allowed 10 homers in his last 19 2/3 innings of work.

Shaun Anderson hasn’t been much better, albeit in only three career starts thus far. The young righty has allowed a total of 17 hits and eight runs (six earned) over his last 10 innings of work. All three of the games he’s pitched in so far have been at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park in San Francisco – Anderson will not have that luxury today, pitching in one of (if not) the best hitting parks in baseball.

All in all, we’re looking at two starting pitchers that have been touched up quite a bit in their time in the Majors. Probably a good reason why Vegas increased the game-total from 9.5 to 10.5, with both teams subsequently seeing their IRTs raised as well – Giants: +0.6, Orioles: +0.3. Together, all of those increases usually add up to a lot of runs.

Giants’ games have gone over the total in seven of the last nine, while Orioles’ games have done the same in eight of their last 11. I’m also going to take the Giants’ moneyline with the bigger IRT increase coming into this one.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 6 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -142)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-3, 4.18 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (5-1, 1.07 ERA/0.89 WHIP)

OK, let’s try this again. Earlier this week the Braves had a zaftig 0.8 IRT increase (just as they do today), but it was actually the Nationals that ended up having the big offensive night. I’m willing to bet that won’t happen against Mike Soroka, who has been one of the most dominant pitchers in all of baseball, allowing one run or fewer in all eight of his starts this season.

Probably a good reason why Atlanta brings the highest moneyline increase (-215 to -255) of the day into this game.

The Tigers ripped Mike Foltynewicz to shreds last night, but that’s even more reason for the Braves to come out strong in this one. I find it very hard to believe that one of the league’s worst teams will come into Atlanta and win two straight games. Especially with Soroka pitching at such an elite level.

While the Tigers got their kicks off last night, the Braves will look to do the same today. Atlanta owns the sixth-best wOBA (.338) against left-handed pitching this season. On the flip side, Detroit has the second-worst wOBA (.282) against right-handed pitching.

This should be a nice and easy win for the Braves today, so I’m going with the 1.5-run line here.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 79-62-4 (56%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (ML: -111)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-3, 3.27 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
MIA: Trevor Richards – R (1-5, 4.14 ERA/1.40 WHIP)

Believe it or not, but it’s the Marlins with the highest moneyline increase of the day (+111 to -111). It makes plenty of sense, considering they’ll be taking on a Giants’ team that flew across the country for one of the longest city-to-city trips in baseball.

That long trip won’t do any favors for San Francisco’s arms, who have been absolutely ripped to shreds lately. The Giants have allowed a total of 48 runs over the last five games, and that was all in their spacious hitter-hating Oracle Park. Jeff Samardzija should be able to neutralize some of the hurt, but he’s only been able to make it to the sixth inning in two of his 10 starts this season.

Trevor Richards takes the mound for Miami and he’s been surprisingly serviceable in the month of May, with a 3.38 ERA in four starts. He looked great, albeit against the Tigers, in his last start with a dominating command of the lower strike zone. Richards will look to cap off the month on a solid note against a Giants team that owns the third-worst wOBA (.285) against right-handed pitching.

Logistically, this is a bad spot for the Giants and Vegas has made the line adjustment. Look for the Marlins to grab the series opener against a fatigued team.

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (ML: -112)
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (4-3, 3.25 ERA/0.99 WHIP)
ATL: Max Fried – L (7-2, 2.88 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

We’re going to get excellent value on the Braves tonight at -112 on the moneyline. Most people may scratch their heads and wonder how with Stephen Strasburg on the mound for the Nationals.

For one, Atlanta has hit Strasburg well over the course of time. The majority of that success comes from Freddie Freeman, who has rocked him for a .354 batting average (17-for-48) with five doubles and four homers. Over Strasburg’s last 11 starts against the Braves, he is 5-4 with a 4.55 ERA.

Also, Strasburg does not pitch well in hot weather. Temperatures in Atlanta should be in the upper-80s/low-90s while he’s on the mound tonight, so look for that to be a detrimental factor. There aren’t any specific numbers on this hindrance for Stras, but coming from the DFS community and knowing a lot of these different nuances about players, this is one that has always stuck in my head.

It also doesn’t help that Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in every category imaginable, including losses (13) and ERA (7.12) – the latter of which is a full run more than the second-worst team. Just yesterday, the Nats’ bullpen blew another lead, making it the fourth time that has happened over the last seven games.

Max Fried takes the hill for Atlanta, and he’s been able to get back to his masterful ways over the last two outings. The young lefty has allowed only 10 baserunners and two runs over his last 12 innings of work, getting the win in both outings. Not to mention, the Braves’ offense hooked up him nicely with a total of 21 runs in those two starts. Atlanta is 7-3 in games that Fried has started this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Washington Nationals: 4 *

[10:00 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (ML: -152)
TEX: Adrian Sampson – R (2-3, 4.44 ERA/1.46 WHIP)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (5-4, 3.41 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

Now that the Mariners got some looks at Adrian Sampson, they should be able to knock him around a bit tonight. That’s been a common theme, as the righty pitched well against Astros and Pirates the first time around before getting rocked the second time around – and third time, in the Astros’ case.

Seattle will have to wait to face Sampson, though, as Jesse Chavez will serve as the “opener” for the first inning or two in this game. Not to worry, they will get plenty of chances to make it work.

The opposite can be said about the Rangers facing Marco Gonzales, who has a 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 12 strikeouts against them this season. In fact, Gonzales had a season-high nine strikeouts against Texas when they visited Seattle back on April 25. Not to mention, the Rangers own the second-highest K-rate (28.8%) against left-handed pitching this season.

Seattle’s lineup looks a little different now with Kyle Seager and Mallex Smith back in action. The Mariners’ bottom of the lineup actually has some sizzle now to it with Smith and Shed Long down at the bottom. That should be able to put some pressure on a Rangers’ team that has allowed the fourth-most stolen bases (33) in baseball. Good news: the Mariners have the second-most stolen bases (38) in baseball.

The early IRT (Mariners: +0.2, Rangers: -0.2) and moneyline (-130 to -152) movements are in favor of the home team, so that’s certainly a positive sign.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 5 – Texas Rangers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 74-51-4 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-118) – New York Yankees (1.5-run line -168) at Baltimore Orioles
NYY: CC Sabathia – L (2-1, 2.97 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-3, 8.51 ERA/1.89 WHIP)

Once again, the top SK Trend Confidence rating is the over in the Orioles-Yankees game. And it’s not hard to see why, with Dan Straily taking the mound for Baltimore. The veteran righty has gotten lit up all season, especially at Camden Yards, allowing nine homers and a 2.35 WHIP over 18 1/3 innings. Straily has allowed a total 15 runs over his last 12 innings of work and the opposition has scored at least seven runs in each of his last four starts.

The Yankees’ offense is rolling, with a double-digit run output in each of their last three games. Much like last night, the best value is going with the over, considering the Yanks’ crazy moneyline (-235), but I don’t mind taking them on the 1.5-run line (-166). Whenever we see so much juice on that 1.5-run line, it almost always tends to win.

CC Sabathia has been on top of his game this season, but if there is a knock on him, it’s the 4.70 ERA and .237 opposing average he’s allowed on the road. The Orioles have hit their fair share of homers against the Yanks this season, but it’s not much of a surprise, considering both teams play in extreme hitter’s parks.

Look for the Yanks to continue adding on to the hurt Straily’s been feeling at Camden Yards this season. But, of course, we’re also looking for the Orioles to chip in a few as well on the total.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 10 – Baltimore Orioles: 4 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-114) – Washington Nationals at New York Mets
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (2-5, 3.72 ERA/1.19 WHIP)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-5, 3.98 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

Sure, both guys haven’t been at the top of their games for most of this season. However, the history of each pitcher against the opposition is just too good to pass up and the SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the total going under.

Max Scherzer will certainly be determined to take down the reigning Cy Young award winner and his squad. The Mets’ current roster has a combined .165 batting average, .219 on-base percentage and 38% K-rate against him lifetime. Although Scherzer has thrown a quality start in six of the last seven outings, it’s amazing to believe that the Nationals are only 2-8 in his 10 starts this season.

Jacob deGrom got absolutely waxed in his last start, which came against the lowly Marlins. We can call that bad luck or just a case of Miami having a good history against deGrom, but I’ll be willing to overlook that. Main reason – the Nationals’ current roster has a combined .175 batting average, .212 on-base percentage and 34.5% K-rate against deGrom.

Given the history of these pitchers against each team, we won’t see much scoring in this game. I’ll give the Mets the final advantage with the better bullpen and this odd trend of the Nationals losing the majority of Scherzer’s starts.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 8.5 (-106) – Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros (1.5-run line: -166)
CHW: Ivan Nova – R (2-4, 7.42 ERA/1.80 WHIP)
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (4-4, 3.56 ERA/1.04 WHIP)

Ivan Nova has been absolutely ripped to shreds this season, so it’s not a good sign for him to be facing an Astros team that ranks at, or near, the top of every advanced metric against right-handed pitching. While the veteran righty has allowed at least eight baserunners in each one of his nine starts this season, teams like the Blue Jays and Indians weren’t able to capitalize with runs – don’t expect Nova to be so lucky tonight against the Astros.

Gerrit Cole has only allowed one run over his last four starts, and I would expect that to continue today against a White Sox team that has scored two runs or fewer in four of the last six games. It’s interesting to note, a James McCann and Yonder Alonso have a decent history against Cole, so maybe they can step into one and help us out with the total.

With all that information on today’s starting pitchers and opposing offenses, we should fully expect the Astros to beat Nova over the head and the cover the total as well. With a little luck on our side, maybe (JUST MAYBE!) the White Sox can add a run or two.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 9 – Chicago White Sox: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-116) – Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
ATL: Max Fried – L (6-2, 2.86 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-2, 3.69 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

We’ve got a heavy trend of totals going under with both sides and they’ll be playing in one of the worst parks in baseball for offense. What a perfect match.

Jeff Samardzija gets a difficult matchup against the Braves, but he has been much better at Oracle Park this season, posting a 2.61 ERA and allowing an opposing batting average of .211. Atlanta’s offense has been somewhat neutralized since coming to San Francisco and its last four games have actually gone under the total. That also makes eight of the last 12 for the Braves that have suffered the same fate.

The key to the under tonight is the California kid, Max Fried, and his matchup against a Giants team that usually always struggles on offense. San Francisco games have gone under the total in three straight and in five of the last six. Fried is coming off one of his best outings of the season, throwing six innings of shutout ball while allowing two hits, two walks and striking out five.

All in all, the ballpark is going to help us more than anything, but the two pitchers certainly help the situation. Look for Atlanta to get the win, with Fried pitching a solid game.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 4 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *