Tag: Washington Nationals

SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day – Tuesday, September 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
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[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – New York Mets at Washington Nationals
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (8-8, 2.66 ERA/1.02 WHIP)
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (9-5, 2.46 ERA/1.02 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from Tuesday’s Mets-Nationals game. We’re going with the under here, considering two of the game’s best starting pitchers will be on display.

Jacob deGrom had another bout of bad luck in his last start, allowing two homers to Cubs’ catcher Victor Caratini en route to a 4-1 loss. However, there’s something about this matchup against the Nationals that bring out the best in him. deGrom owns a microscopic 0.53 ERA and 25 strikeouts in 17 innings of work – a span of three starts.

The Nationals’ offense just hasn’t been able to figure out deGrom yet, but they’re certainly not alone. They were able to pick on Orioles and Marlins pitching in the four games prior to Monday. However, tonight’s task is certainly one that can have them scratching their heads all night.

Max Scherzer recently came off the injured list at the end of August. The Nationals haven’t been extending him much in these first two starts since, letting him throw a total of 8 1/3 innings. Tonight, however, could be a chance for the Nationals (and Scherzer) to see what he’s truly made of at this point in Tuesday’s outing, considering his workload did increase gradually in those outings. In three starts against the Mets this season, Scherzer has a 1-1 record and 2.70 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 20 innings of work – a span of three starts.

The Mets’ offense has gotten back on track over the last few days, scoring at least six runs in four of the last six games. While this matchup against one of the best pitchers in baseball doesn’t usually provide much optimism, chipping away is probably the best they can do in this scenario.

This will be the third time that deGrom and Scherzer go head to head, and the Mets have taken each of those first two meetings. While there’s a not particular side that we’re fond of in the third version of deGrom-Scherzer.

Bullpens probably won’t play a huge part in this game, but it’s comforting to know that both teams’ units have been above average over the last 14 days.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 3 – New York Mets: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, August 6

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 189-136-8 (58.2%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 25-4-1 record over the last 30 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. For people like Tony Stugots, who will undoubtedly question every single thing we do, you can click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (6-6, 3.80 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
SF: Conner Menez – L (0-0, 3.60 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Giants-Nationals game. We’re going with the under on this one, considering the game will be played in extreme pitching conditions.

We all know Oracle Park as one of, if not, the worst venues for offense in baseball. However, things get even worse towards the end of the season with the temperatures dropping like crazy by the bay. The forecast temperatures in the low-60s, moving into the upper-50s as day turns to night. These lower temperatures cause the ball to have a lot less carry to it.

Also, if you see that the wind is blowing out at 11 mph – it doesn’t matter. Oracle Park is designed in a way so that whether the wind is blowing towards the plate or the outfield, it has no effect whatsoever.

As for the game itself, Anibal Sanchez will probably be the guy we rely on more. It’s quite surprising, but he’s actually allowed three runs or fewer in 17 of his 20 starts this season. Sanchez has a great history against the Giants, going 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA in seven lifetime starts, and even more impressive is his 3-0 record and 0.58 ERA in four starts at Oracle Park – two of which, were complete-game shutouts.

The Giants offense has sputtered after a great stretch of games throughout late-June and early-July. Over the last 21 days, they own a dreadful .303 weighted on-base average and .103 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching.

What’s even more surprising is the Nationals inability to hit left-handed pitching in recent games. After tearing them up at the beginning of the season, Washington now owns .278 weighted on-base average and .109 ISO numbers over the last 21 days against lefties.

Conner Menez made his MLB debut back on July 21, allowing two runs over five innings against the Mets. He was sent back down to the minors after that start, but a lot of these Giants execs have done nothing but gloat about the kid.

We’re probably not looking at Menez pitching the game of his life, but it’s all about moderation here. A similar performance to his MLB debut, allowing two runs in five innings before handing it off to the bullpen, is what we should expect.

Giants games have gone under the total in eight of the last 11 games – with one push – and a good amount of those came on the road. Look for them to struggle once again and the Nationals to add just a couple more runs to get the win.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 3 – San Francisco Giants: 1

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 126-108-4 (53.8%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -190) at Detroit Tigers
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (7-5, 2.52 ERA/
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-5, 5.95 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

Mad Max is back in the D! It was one of the worst moves in the history of the franchise, letting Max Scherzer out of town, but he’s back to claim what’s rightfully is – respect.

And apparently, breaking his nose was just the thing he needed. Since that tragic gaff, Scherzer has held the opposition to one run over 15 innings while striking out 20 batters. The multi-colored-orbital man has now struck out at least nine batters in each of his last five outings, including double-digits in four of those starts.

Today, Scherzer will go toe-to-toe with Jordan Zimmermann. This is a mismatch made in heaven if you’re betting on the Nationals, which is what I plan on doing here – heavily. Looking at Zimmermann’s stat line, it really doesn’t do justice, and it seems like some time on the IL didn’t do anything to help matters. Since then, Zimmermann has allowed 14 hits and six runs over his last nine innings. In general, the Tigers have lost the last six games that Zimmermann started, five of them coming by two runs or more.

The recent Statcast data against right-handed pitching between the teams is noticeably different. Over the last 21 days, the Nationals have a massive .370 wOBA and .249 ISO while the Tigers are at the opposite end of the spectrum with a .304 wOBA, .158 ISO and 26.3% K-rate.

All in all, we’re not trying to kid anyone here. Max is going to mow these poor Tigers’ hitters with relative ease.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 1

[1:10 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (ML: -200)
TEX: Jesse Chavez – R (3-2, 2.79 ERA/
TB: Blake Snell – L (4-7, 5.01 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

It’s no secret that Blake Snell has struggled this season, but this a prime opportunity for him to get back on the good foot. The Rangers have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching with a massive 32.6% K-rate over the last 21 days. As we all know, Snell is one of the best in the business at racking them up.

The Rangers will throw a bullpen-game at the Rays today, and it’s not like that’s going to help their case. Over the last 14 days, the Texas bullpen owns a zaftig 4.91 ERA. The road has not been kind to the Rangers this season, and even though their recent success looks good, this is simply a different team away from Globe Life Park.

Let’s roll with the Rays in confidence, and know that Snell is going to dominate this afternoon!

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 6 – Texas Rangers: 2 

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 124-106-4 (54%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -120) at Miami Marlins
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (8-4, 3.79 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (4-6, 3.51 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

Stephen Strasburg has handled the Marlins with relative ease over the course of his career, going 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA/1.09 WHIP in 32 career starts – the Nationals are 23-9 in those games. This year’s version of the Marlins is a lot worse, especially of late, with a .269 wOBA and .099 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

The road has been much more kind to Strasburg this season, as his 2.92 ERA is much better there than at Nationals Park, where it sits at 4.71. In fact, the Nationals are a whopping 25-8 in road games which Strasburg has started since the beginning of last season.

Sandy Alcantara has had a rough go of it against the Nationals over his career, losing all three of his starts and accumulating a 9.00 ERA/2.46 WHIP. The top four hitters in Washington’s lineup (Turner, Eaton, Rendon, Soto) have particularly given Alcantara trouble, combining to go 15-for-32 against him.

Recently, Alcantara has been allowing loads of baserunners – 22 of them in his last 13 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, the Phillies and Pirates couldn’t take advantage in those games, but we’ll give the Nationals the benefit of the doubt tonight.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the Nationals on the 1.5-run line, for all of the reasons listed above.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 6 – Miami Marlins: 1

[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 12 (-120) – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -134) at Colorado Rockies
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (8-1, 2.96 ERA/0.88 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-0, 5.85 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

Walker Buehler has been fantastic in the month of June with a 3-0 record, 0.87 ERA/0.45 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in 31 innings of work. His last outing came against these same Rockies, going the distance allowing two runs (on two solo homers) while striking out 16.

Buehler has made eight career starts against the Rockies and gone 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA/0.81 WHIP. In his last four starts against Colorado, the righty has allowed 10 hits/six walks and only five runs (three earned) in a total 26 2/3 innings.

The Rockies’ offense hasn’t played at Coors Field since Trevor Story went down with the thumb injury, but they have an average of only 3.6 runs per game in the seven afterward. Not to mention, Colorado owns an anemic .274 xwOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, thus alluding to the lack of quality contact.

After two solid outings to begin his career, Peter Lambert has now coughed up 16 hits and 11 runs over his last eight innings of work. Lambert has been getting hit harder by left-handed bats and four of the first five hitters in the Dodgers’ lineup are projected to be from that side.

Lastly, the difference between these two bullpens over the last 14 days is quite significant. Over that span, the Rockies’ pen owns the fourth-worst ERA (6.62) while the Dodgers’ has the fifth-best (3.00).

The SK Trend Confidence rating has strong grades on the total going under and the Dodgers in both fashions, moneyline and 1.5-run line. Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 against Colorado going into tonight’s matchup.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 8 – Colorado Rockies: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 23

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 118-101-4 (54%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (ML: -200/1.5-run line: -114)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-5, 4.40 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (2-2, 2.56 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

The Indians are 7-1 against the Tigers this season, and it’s not looking like things will get any better for the visitors today. This will be the 11th time Cleveland is favored by -200 or more, with an 8-3 record in those games.  On the other hand, Detroit has been struggling, with losses in seven of the last eight contests.

Zach Plesac, the nephew of former MLB pitcher Dan Plesac, has lived up to the namesake early in his career. The rookie righty has allowed two runs or fewer in four of the last five starts – one run or fewer in three of the five. Detroit’s numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days are absolutely dreadful — .287 wOBA, .145 ISO and 25.4% K-rate.

On the flip side, Cleveland’s offense has been the exact opposite against left-handed pitching. The Tribe has a magnificent .400 wOBA, .292 ISO and 14.4% K-rate in that split over the last 21 days.

While Daniel Norris hasn’t exactly gotten beat over the head recently, it’ll be tough for him to keep up that level of effectiveness today against an Indians team that is rocking and rolling — pun intended to the city of Cleveland.

Lastly, we’ve got a huge difference in bullpens here, as the Indians own the league’s best ERA (3.21) and the Tigers have the fifth-worst (5.18).

I don’t mind taking the Indians on the moneyline or 1.5-run line here — they get it done either which way.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -106) at Washington Nationals
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (8-1, 2.12 ERA/
WSH: Austin Voth – R (season debut)

Mike Soroka has looked a little more human after his unreal start to the season, but it’s still been enough to keep getting the Braves wins. The young Canadian righty only threw 68 pitches in his last outing, so look for him to be fully charged up for this one.

Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 when Soroka starts against teams with a losing record this season and the team also own a 10-2 record on Sundays. The Braves have won the last eight of Soroka’s starts. Also, the Nationals have somehow never seen Soroka before, giving him the advantage of the unknown – it’s a thing.

Austin Voth gets a spot start for the Nationals today, in place of Joe Ross. Washington needed Ross to pitch last night in an emergency because of all the runs that were scored, and the fact that its bullpen has been taxed all week – including the doubleheader on Wednesday. Voth’s season down in Triple-A hasn’t been great, as he’s 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA.

This is all great news for the Braves’ offense today, and Vegas has taken note by elevating their IRT an entire run from 4.6 to 5.6 – the third-highest on the entire slate. Atlanta’s offense also owns a massive .385 wOBA and .260 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 10 – Washington Nationals: 3 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres (ML: -142) at Pittsburgh Pirates
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (6-4, 3.74 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
PIT: Steven Brault – L (3-1, 4.40 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Padres will be looking to avoid the sweep and look to have the right guy for the job in Joey Lucchesi, who is coming off a masterful seven-inning shutout performance against the Brewers. Lucchesi has been solid, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, and he already stifled this Pirates’ offense a little more than a month ago by allowing only two runs over seven innings.

Not to mention, the Pirates own the league’s third-lowest wOBA (.284) against left-handed pitching. Pittsburgh’s .282 xwOBA against lefties over the last 21 days indicates they’re not seeing the ball well either and with Lucchesi’s herky-jerky motion won’t make things any easier.

It’s certainly an optimistic outlook for the Padres, as this will be their second-highest moneyline odds on the road this season.

Steven Brault goes for the Pirates, and he’ll have trouble against a Padres’ lineup featuring seven right-handed bats. As a team, San Diego owns a massive .256 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Look for Lucchesi’s big outing to lead the way to a Padres’ victory today.

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 7 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 112-92-4 (55%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-5, 4.31 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (5-5, 4.11 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

Jake Arrieta has not been at his best of late, and his control has been a big reason why. The veteran righty has issued nine walks over his last two outings (10 2/3 innings), despite the Phillies getting the win in each of them. Not to mention, the road has not been kind to Arrieta, as he’s allowed five runs in each of his last two starts away from Citizens Bank Park.

The Phils’ bullpen has been downright awful of late. After coughing up Friday’s game in Atlanta, three of their pitchers combined to give up 15 runs in Sunday’s loss to the Braves. Stretching it out a bit longer, the Phils’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA (9.27) in MLB over the last seven days.

Arrieta could very well find himself in a spot where he’s forced to pitch more innings, even if things aren’t going well.

Aside from a complete-game shutout against the lousy Marlins, Patrick Corbin has not performed well at lately. Over his last three starts (12 2/3 innings), the lefty has allowed 22 hits and 20 runs (16 earned) – yikes!

The top six hitters in each team’s lineup have been making solid contact over the last 21 days against the handedness of starting pitcher on the mound tonight. Not to mention, five of the last six games for both teams have gone over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 7 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (+100) – New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (+106)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-6, 3.38 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
ATL: Julio Teheran – R (5-4, 2.92 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

There’s owning teams, and then there’s straight up OWNING teams. Julio Teheran does somersaults out of bed on days he knows the Mets are on the schedule. The veteran righty owns a 2.16 ERA/1.04 WHIP against them lifetime. New York’s current roster owns a putrid .203 batting average and .266 on-base percentage against Teheran with a 25.2% K-rate.

Teheran has been immaculate over his last eight starts, allowing one earned run or fewer and no homers in that stretch.

That’s how good Teheran has been against the Mets, that I didn’t lead off this game with reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. After a rough start to the season, he’s rebounded nicely by allowing two runs or fewer in eight of the last nine starts. deGrom also has solid numbers against tonight’s opponent, with a 1.86 ERA/1.02 WHIP lifetime. The current Braves’ roster owns a .235 batting average, .292 on-base percentage and 29.2% K-rate against him.

All of this is great news for the total going under tonight, but the one thing that could derail this pitcher’s duel is the Mets’ bullpen – they have been downright awful over the last couple of days. However, I find it quite intriguing that New York is favored in this game, considering how well Teheran has pitched against them in the past – not to mention, his current form. I do think that means deGrom ends up having a solid performance, but the game could certainly be lost by the bullpen.

Lastly, there are some great trends in the Braves’ favor tonight – or bad luck for the Mets. The Mets are 1-7 after allowing 10 runs in the previous game, 0-6 when deGrom is on the mound after a loss in the previous game and 4-10 in all games that deGrom starts this season. Yikes!

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 4 – New York Mets: 1 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-104) – Milwaukee Brewers (1.5-run line: -102) at San Diego Padres
MIL: Brandon Woodruff – R (8-1, 3.87 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
SD: Logan Allen – L (MLB debut)

Brandon Woodruff has pitched incredibly well this season and the Brewers have won his last nine starts – eight of them coming by two runs or more. Tonight, he’ll face a Padres offense that owns the third-lowest IRT (3.3) on tonight’s slate. Vegas is already telling us that we’re going to see another low-scoring affair, as both teams have seen a decrease in IRTs (Brewers: -0.4, Padres: -0.6) and the game total also went from 8.5 to 7.5. In my opinion, this is all fantastic news for Woodruff in one way or the other.

Logan Allen makes his MLB debut tonight, and he’s more of a needed body, as opposed to someone that deserved a call-up from Triple-A. Allen owned a 4-3 record and 5.15 ERA for Triple-A El Paso, but the Padres’ bullpen was absolutely taxed after a crazy three-game series in Colorado over the weekend.

Luckily for the under, Milwaukee’s bats haven’t been rocking and rolling like they have most of the season. Over the last 21 days, they own a well-below average .315 wOBA against left-handed pitching and did just get shut down by Joey Lucchesi last night.

All in all, we’re looking for a dominant performance from Woodruff once again, with Allen doing just enough to carry us to a low-scoring affair.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 5 – San Diego Padres: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 110-91-4 (54.7%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-108) – Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-5, 4.31 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (5-5, 4.11 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

Vegas is loving some runs in this game, elevating the IRTs (implied run totals) for each team – Nationals: +0.7, Phillies: +0.3.

Jake Arrieta has not been at his best of late and the control has been a big reason why. The veteran righty has issued nine walks over his last two outings (10 2/3 innings), despite the Phillies getting the win in each of them. The road has not been kind to Arrieta either, as he’s allowed five runs in each of his last two starts away from Citizens Bank Park.

The Phils’ bullpen has been downright awful of late. After coughing up Friday’s game in Atlanta, three of their pitchers combined to give up 15 runs in Sunday’s loss to the Braves. Stretching it out a bit longer, the Phils’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA (9.27) in MLB over the last seven days.

Arrieta could very well find himself in a spot where he’s forced to pitch more innings, even if things aren’t going well.

Aside from a complete-game shutout against the lousy Marlins, Patrick Corbin has been brutal. Over his last three starts (12 2/3 innings), the lefty has allowed 22 hits and 20 runs (16 earned) – yikes!

According to the advanced metric xwOBA, the top six hitters in each team’s lineup have been making solid contact over the last 21 days against the handedness of starting pitcher on the mound tonight. Not to mention, five of the last six games for both teams have gone over the total.

FYI: This game might get off to a late start with a 50% chance of rain in the forecast from 7-9 p.m. I don’t see that causing any issues for either offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 7 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (+100) – Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
TB: Yonny Chirinos – R (7-2, 2.88 ERA/0.93 WHIP)
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka – R (4-5, 3.58 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

While Yankee Stadium isn’t exactly the place we usually look for the total going under, there is a nice matchup of dueling righties on the mound tonight.

The Spread Knowledge Trend Confidence rating has the under on this game as the highest grade of the evening. A big reason is that nine of the last 13 Rays’ games have gone under the total. Also, the total has dropped slightly from 9.5 to 9.0, and the Yankees’ IRT dropped from 5.2 to 4.8 – usually a good sign for the under.

Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t been at his best lately, but he does have fantastic lifetime numbers (0.96 career WHIP) against the Rays. That includes 13 innings of work against them this season, allowing only eight hits and one run while striking out 13 batters. In his last six starts against the Rays, Tanaka has allowed two runs or fewer in five of those – one run or fewer in four of them.

Yonny Chirinos has made a smooth transition to becoming a legit starter, and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of the last seven outings – one run or fewer in four of the last six. The electric righty has done a fine job of limiting runs against the Yankees, allowing no runs in two of his four career meetings – the latest coming at Yankee Stadium.

Both of these teams have incredibly-talented bullpens, so I certainly won’t bet against them. Look for this to be a low-scoring game that comes down to the very end.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 4 – New York Yankees: 3 –*

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-112) Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
HOU: Wade Miley – L (6-3, 3.14 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (6-1, 2.20 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

It’s a fantastic matchup of arms, as Wade Miley and Luis Castillo go up against one another, in a ballpark that usually makes pitchers weep. The total going under in this game is also one of the highest grades on the SK Trend Confidence rating.

Let’s start with Castillo, who has allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts. It’s quite telling that the Astros are underdogs, given that they’re 1-4 when having that label this season. Obviously, Castillo and his dominance play a big part in tonight’s line, but Houston is also coming off a 12-0 shellacking at the hands of Toronto yesterday. Sure, the Astros’ lineup is missing some key pieces, but you can’t be getting beat by the Blue Jays like that.

If, for some reason, Castillo doesn’t make it too deep into this start, no worries. The Cincy bullpen is leading a number of categories in advanced metrics over the last seven days.

Miley has been a pleasant surprise for the Astros this season, especially of late, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of the last nine starts. I don’t see him being as dominant as Castillo tonight, but certainly enough to not let this run total get out of hand. I’d be willing to bet that someone like Eugenio Suarez or Yasiel Puig tag him for a long ball, and that’ll ultimately be the difference.

I’m giving the Reds the win in this one, on the strength of a dominant performance from Castillo. It’s also a good sign for him that Houston loses its DH playing in the National League park.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 4 – Houston Astros: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -114)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (6-2, 4.63 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (6-3, 4.63 ERA/1.14 WHIP)

We’ve got trends galore in our favor for the A’s over the Orioles tonight – listen up!

Oakland is favored by its highest moneyline of the season tonight at -230. The A’s have been favored by -200 or more only twice this season, winning both games and scoring a total of 20 runs. Vegas knows what they’re doing.

The A’s will face Andrew Cashner, who they’ve beat up on a consistent basis. The veteran righty has a 6.83 ERA/1.69 WHIP against Oakland lifetime, and a lot of the hitters on the current roster have fantastic BvP numbers against him.

Mike Fiers has been fantastic over his last nine starts, allowing three runs or fewer each time out. He’s been even better against the Orioles, with a 3-1 record and 2.08 ERA/0.88 WHIP lifetime. Fiers also has great numbers at home this season, going 4-2 with a 0.95 WHIP. Over the last two seasons, Fiers’ team is 19-5 when he pitches at home and 16-7 when he pitches against teams with a losing record.

Oakland has been relaxing here on the West coast, while Baltimore had to travel across the country yesterday for tonight’s game. Look for them to experience plenty of jet-lag and the A’s to get a comfortable victory.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 11

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 101-81-4 (55.5%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-116) – Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
TOR: Trent Thornton – L (1-4, 4.73 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
BAL: John Means – L (5-4, 2.67 ERA/1.07 WHIP)

The highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the day is the under on this Blue Jays-Orioles game. According to the Vegas trends, the Blue Jays are somehow getting more love. It does, however, give me confidence that Toronto’s Trent Thornton will have a good outing on the mound, leading us to the total going under.

Thornton has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts. I guess part of the reason for the Blue Jays’ love in Vegas is the Orioles’ anemic .235 wOBA and .067 ISO against left-handed pitching these last 21 days. That’ll typically do it.

The part that really baffles me is that John Means takes the mound for Baltimore, and he’s been nothing short of miraculous at home for this awful team. The rookie southpaw is 3-1 in seven appearances (five starts) at Camden Yards, with a 1.53 ERA and an opposing batting average of .173. Not to mention, Toronto owns the fifth-worst wOBA (.283) and ISO (.146) against lefties this season.

We do have two Blue Jays’ hitters to worry about, though, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Lourdes Gurriel have both crushed lefties over the last 21 days. If that’s where Means gets beat, it’ll likely be from there.

I don’t get it, but I’ve also learned to not doubt Vegas. I’ll give the Blue Jays the nod, but the total going under looks a lot better, especially with the wind blowing in at about 9 mph.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 3 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-118) – Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (6-1, 2.26 ERA/1.10 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-6, 3.93 ERA/1.16 WHIP)

This nightmare has to end eventually for Trevor Bauer – it just has to. He is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, and it should be noted that there have been glimmers of hope this season.

Speaking of hope, an in-state matchup against the Reds offers just that. No other team in baseball has scored fewer runs (15) since the start of June, and it’s been seven straight games involving Cincy where the total has gone under. The Reds also rank in the bottom-third of MLB in most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching this season.

Four of Bauer’s five career starts against the Reds have gone under the total, as he’s amassed a 1.20 WHIP in those games.

Luis Castillo had some slip-ups recently, but overall this is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball. In night starts this season, Castillo has gone 6-0 with a microscopic 1.50 ERA and 58 strikeouts over 48 innings.

With the Reds’ inability to score runs of late, I’m going with the Indians to get the victory. But the main play here is going under the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-120) – Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
SEA: Mike Leake – R (5-6, 4.30 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
MIN: Martin Perez – L (7-2, 3.72 ERA/1.42 WHIP)

Mike Leake is coming off two consecutive dazzling performances, including a complete-game one-run gem against the Astros last time out. However, most of Leake’s success has come at T-Mobile Park this season, which is not where he’ll be tonight. Instead, he’ll be at Target Field in Minnesota, where the Twins are 67-40 at home since last season (19-9 this season). Not to mention, the Mariners are a horrific 5-25 against teams with a winning record in 2019.

The Twins’ offense has been destroying opposing pitchers of both handedness, but their 35-15 record against right-handed starters this season speaks plenty of volumes. Over the last 21 days, the Twins have a massive .380 wOBA and .316 ISO against righties.

Martin Perez should be ecstatic to get back on the mound at home, where he owns a 3-1 record and 2.51 ERA this season. However, he’s allowed 11 runs (eight earned) over the last 7 1/3 innings of work, and the Mariners’ offense has a robust .366 wOBA and .243 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

We’ve got two more primary facts of evidence going in our favor for the total going over – Each team’s bullpen is getting ripped over the last 14 days and the wind will be blowing out to left field at 9 mph.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is very high on the Twins tonight, with B+ grades on their moneyline and 1.5-run line, but the over is my main play here.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 9 – Seattle Mariners: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -116) at Chicago White Sox
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (5-4, 3.59 ERA/1.20 WHIP)
CHW: Manny Banuelos – L (3-4, 7.36 ERA/1.83 WHIP)

We’ve got a HUGE mismatch of offense against left-handed pitching that we need to exploit tonight. In the words of Ace Ventura, “Alllllrighty then!”

The Nationals own the fourth-best wRC+ (117) and fifth-best wOBA (.354) against lefties this season. That’s terrible news for Manny Banuelos, who has allowed at least five runs in four of his last five starts. Not to mention, the Nats get an extra bat in their lineup tonight because of the DH rule in the American League Park.

Even better news for Washington is its performance against lefties over the last 21 days – about the amount of time their lineup has been mostly healthy. Over that time frame, the Nats have a gaudy .380 wOBA and .200 ISO against left-handed pitching.

The White Sox have been the complete opposite. Over the last 21 days, they have a putrid .258 wOBA and .037 ISO against left-handed pitching. Let’s all give a big YIIIIIKES to the White Sox chances tonight as they go against the very talented Patrick Corbin. Now, it’s worth noting that Corbin hasn’t been at his best of late, but an opponent like Chicago is certainly one which can get him back on track.

All in all, we’ve got stats-overload in our favor, and the Nationals should give Corbin more than enough run support in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 10 – Chicago White Sox: 4 *

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* Key terms used in today’s writing:

– ISO = Isolated Power (A sabermetric computation used to measure a player’s raw power. This distinguishes a batter with a .300 batting average and many singles, as opposed to a batter with a .300 average and more extra-base hits… typically, .200 is where you want to be in ISO.)

– wOBA = Weighted On-Base Average (A version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base. The value for each event is determined by how much it is worth in relation to a run created – Ex: a double is worth more than a single, a triple is worth more than a double, a home run is worth more than a triple, etc… about .320 is league average)

– xwOBA = Expected Weighted On-Base Average (The same thing as wOBA, just removing defense from the equation. An easy way of looking at xwOBA, would be to just imagine there are no fielders on the playing surface.)

– wRC+ = Weighted Runs Created Plus (Runs created + adjusting the number to account for important external factors – like ballpark or ERA… 100 is league average)

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, May 29

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 82-64-4 (56.2%) * <— includes Monday’s KC/CHW continuation game

 

[7:10 p.m. EST] Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -124)
TOR: Trent Thornton – R (1-4, 4.42 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
TB: Blake Snell – L (3-4, 3.07 ERA/1.01 WHIP)

The Rays are massive favorites tonight and it comes with plenty of good reasoning. So much, in fact, that their 1.5-run line odds are the highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the evening. Tampa comes in winning five of its last six games, with all of the victories coming by two runs or more.

Blake Snell takes the mound for the Rays and he’s been outstanding of late, allowing a total of four runs and striking out 37 batters over his last 24 1/3 innings of work. That’s bad news for the Blue Jays, who own the third-worst wOBA (.275) and ninth-worst K-rate (25.2%) against left-handed pitching. Snell faced Toronto already once this season and allowed only one hit and one walk while striking out nine over six innings. The current Blue Jays’ roster also has a microscopic .145 batting average and .217 on-base percentage in 68 plate appearances against Snell.

No surprise at all that Toronto has the lowest IRT (2.9) on tonight’s slate, considering their .234 wOBA and .118 ISO marks against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Trent Thornton takes the mound for the Blue Jays and he’ll have a tough task as the Rays rank fourth in wRC+ (116) and seventh in wOBA (.340) against right-handed pitching this season. Control has been an issue for Thornton of late, with nine of them issued in his last 17 2/3 innings of work. Back on April 12, the Rays rocked him in Tampa for eight hits and five runs (three homers) over three innings.

It’s a massive mismatch of starting pitchers at Tropicana Field, so look for the Rays to take the early lead and coast to victory tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 0 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-106) – Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: +120)
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (0-6, 5.10 ERA/1.68 WHIP)
ATL: Kevin Gausman – R (2-3, 4.33 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

We just talked about the team with the lowest IRT of the night, so it’s only right to gloat about the team with the highest of the night. Atlanta’s 6.0 IRT tops them all and we get even better news since it increased +0.8 from the 5.2-mark initially set, while they also have the highest moneyline increase of the night.

Folks, I start putting down-payments on yachts when I see movement like this! Sure, the moneyline sounds fun, but getting plus-money on the 1.5-run line here is the Woodstock of sports betting.

Anibal Sanchez gets the ball fresh off the injured list, and that’s good news for the Braves. The aging righty has yet to win a game and the Nats have lost seven of his nine starts this season. I talk about it in this space all the time, but Washington’s bullpen is absolutely terrible and there’s a good chance we’ll see plenty of them tonight.

While Sanchez might not give up a ton of homers, the Braves will likely put plenty of guys on base tonight. Atlanta is tied for eighth in MLB with a .334 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching and Sanchez has allowed more hits (46) than innings pitched (42 1/3), and his 25 walks won’t help either.

Kevin Gausman had some rough outings to close out April, but this is a new month. The veteran righty has three consecutive quality starts and hasn’t allowed one homer since the calendar flipped to May. I’m not expecting a career-defining performance from Gausman tonight but certainly one that’ll give the Braves some breathing room throughout the game.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 10 – Washington Nationals: 4 *  

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Chicago Cubs (ML: -108) at Houston Astros
CHC: Kyle Hendricks – R (4-4, 3.34 ERA/1.18 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (5-2, 3.32 ERA/1.16 WHIP)

The Astros suffered yet another devastating injury with the loss of Carlos Correa – he’ll join Jose Altuve and George Springer on the injured list. While they’ve done a fine job of navigating without the latter two, this one might be too much to overcome. Vegas knows the deal, and that’s why Houston’s IRT decreased a whopping -0.6 (5.1 to 4.5) for tonight’s game.

When we look at the two starting pitchers for this game, we might not expect much. But that’s a big mistake.

Kyle Hendricks is the homeless man’s Greg Maddux, in that he’s able to get the job done without ever reaching 90 mph on the radar gun. With a depleted Astros’ lineup, look for them to struggle against getting into a rhythm with this crafty right-hander.

Wade Miley is basically the left-handed version of Hendricks, and he’s coming off a season-high eight-strikeout performance against the Red Sox. The Cubs have top-10 advanced metrics against lefties this season, but Miley has only allowed more than three runs once in his 11 starts.

At the end of the day, I like the Cubs to play some desperate baseball and avoid the sweep with their better top-to-bottom lineup. But it won’t be a high-scoring affair.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs: 4 – Houston Astros: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, May 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 79-62-4 (56%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins (ML: -111)
SF: Jeff Samardzija – R (2-3, 3.27 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
MIA: Trevor Richards – R (1-5, 4.14 ERA/1.40 WHIP)

Believe it or not, but it’s the Marlins with the highest moneyline increase of the day (+111 to -111). It makes plenty of sense, considering they’ll be taking on a Giants’ team that flew across the country for one of the longest city-to-city trips in baseball.

That long trip won’t do any favors for San Francisco’s arms, who have been absolutely ripped to shreds lately. The Giants have allowed a total of 48 runs over the last five games, and that was all in their spacious hitter-hating Oracle Park. Jeff Samardzija should be able to neutralize some of the hurt, but he’s only been able to make it to the sixth inning in two of his 10 starts this season.

Trevor Richards takes the mound for Miami and he’s been surprisingly serviceable in the month of May, with a 3.38 ERA in four starts. He looked great, albeit against the Tigers, in his last start with a dominating command of the lower strike zone. Richards will look to cap off the month on a solid note against a Giants team that owns the third-worst wOBA (.285) against right-handed pitching.

Logistically, this is a bad spot for the Giants and Vegas has made the line adjustment. Look for the Marlins to grab the series opener against a fatigued team.

* Final Score Prediction: Miami Marlins: 5 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (ML: -112)
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (4-3, 3.25 ERA/0.99 WHIP)
ATL: Max Fried – L (7-2, 2.88 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

We’re going to get excellent value on the Braves tonight at -112 on the moneyline. Most people may scratch their heads and wonder how with Stephen Strasburg on the mound for the Nationals.

For one, Atlanta has hit Strasburg well over the course of time. The majority of that success comes from Freddie Freeman, who has rocked him for a .354 batting average (17-for-48) with five doubles and four homers. Over Strasburg’s last 11 starts against the Braves, he is 5-4 with a 4.55 ERA.

Also, Strasburg does not pitch well in hot weather. Temperatures in Atlanta should be in the upper-80s/low-90s while he’s on the mound tonight, so look for that to be a detrimental factor. There aren’t any specific numbers on this hindrance for Stras, but coming from the DFS community and knowing a lot of these different nuances about players, this is one that has always stuck in my head.

It also doesn’t help that Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in every category imaginable, including losses (13) and ERA (7.12) – the latter of which is a full run more than the second-worst team. Just yesterday, the Nats’ bullpen blew another lead, making it the fourth time that has happened over the last seven games.

Max Fried takes the hill for Atlanta, and he’s been able to get back to his masterful ways over the last two outings. The young lefty has allowed only 10 baserunners and two runs over his last 12 innings of work, getting the win in both outings. Not to mention, the Braves’ offense hooked up him nicely with a total of 21 runs in those two starts. Atlanta is 7-3 in games that Fried has started this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – Washington Nationals: 4 *

[10:00 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (ML: -152)
TEX: Adrian Sampson – R (2-3, 4.44 ERA/1.46 WHIP)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (5-4, 3.41 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

Now that the Mariners got some looks at Adrian Sampson, they should be able to knock him around a bit tonight. That’s been a common theme, as the righty pitched well against Astros and Pirates the first time around before getting rocked the second time around – and third time, in the Astros’ case.

Seattle will have to wait to face Sampson, though, as Jesse Chavez will serve as the “opener” for the first inning or two in this game. Not to worry, they will get plenty of chances to make it work.

The opposite can be said about the Rangers facing Marco Gonzales, who has a 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 12 strikeouts against them this season. In fact, Gonzales had a season-high nine strikeouts against Texas when they visited Seattle back on April 25. Not to mention, the Rangers own the second-highest K-rate (28.8%) against left-handed pitching this season.

Seattle’s lineup looks a little different now with Kyle Seager and Mallex Smith back in action. The Mariners’ bottom of the lineup actually has some sizzle now to it with Smith and Shed Long down at the bottom. That should be able to put some pressure on a Rangers’ team that has allowed the fourth-most stolen bases (33) in baseball. Good news: the Mariners have the second-most stolen bases (38) in baseball.

The early IRT (Mariners: +0.2, Rangers: -0.2) and moneyline (-130 to -152) movements are in favor of the home team, so that’s certainly a positive sign.

* Final Score Prediction: Seattle Mariners: 5 – Texas Rangers: 2 *