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[7:10 p.m. EST] Los Angeles Angels (ML: +180) at Houston Astros
LAA: Dillon Peters – L (3-1, 3.92 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
HOU: Wade Miley – L (12-4, 3.18 ERA/1.20 WHIP)
The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Angels-Astros game. We’re taking the Angels as a massive underdog here, considering they’ve been given a +0.6 IRT (implied run total) increase while Astros have been given a -0.1 decrease.
Wade Miley takes the ball for Houston, and he’s been getting absolutely ripped over his last two starts – in a span of nine innings, the lefty has allowed 19 hits and 10 runs (six earned), and this came against the Tigers and White Sox. The IRT increase we discussed at the top certainly has a lot to do with that.
Dillon Peters has done most of his best work since getting back into the starting rotation. That last outing against Texas didn’t go according to plan, but he did have three straight quality starts – two of them coming against solid offenses like Boston and Cleveland.
When looking at the Astros over the last few weeks, they haven’t played their best ball – and some of that came against cellar-dwellers like the Orioles and Tigers. As we come down the homestretch of the season, we’ve already seen some of these top teams take it easy since they know they’ve got huge leads in the division and easy paths to the playoffs.
There will be nights when these teams simply mail it in, and that’s what Vegas is expecting from the Astros. Look for the Angels to pull the upset win, and bettors of theirs to make a nice profit in the process.
* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 7 – Houston Astros: 4