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[8:15 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (ML: -150) at Kansas City Royals
OAK: Homer Bailey – R (11-8, 5.06 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
KC: Brad Keller – R (7-13, 3.95 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes us to from the A’s-Royals game. Our system likes the A’s to win this one outright, and right the wrongs of their two-game weekend sweep at the hands of the cross-town rival Giants. There aren’t many games on tonight’s slate, so we don’t mind laying a couple of extra dollars on this bet.
Homer Bailey will be making a return to KC, where he spent the first half of this season before getting traded to Oakland. We certainly don’t have to call this a “revenge game,” considering anyone playing for the Royals over the last couple of years would’ve sold their soul to move to a contender.
Bailey’s recent form, though, is no joking matter. In his last two starts (a span of 12 2/3 innings), Bailey has allowed a 0.79 WHIP and only one run while striking out 15 batters. KC’s offense may have scored nine runs yesterday, but this is not something we should get accustomed to. The Royals have an absolutely dreadful .255 weighted on-base average against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, so Bailey should continue on his dominant ways.
While Bailey has a nice outlook, this A’s offense needs a little kick in the pants. Oakland’s metrics aren’t great against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, but it’s likely this offense gets it going later in the game against KC’s bullpen, which has the fourth-highest ERA in baseball over the last seven days.
All in all, the margin in talent between these two teams is quite significant. Look for the A’s to take their weekend frustration out on a Royals team making their vacation plans already.
* Final Score Prediction * Oakland Athletics: 4 – Kansas City Royals: 2