Tag: Cleveland Indians

MLB Free Pick of The Day for Thursday, August 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 215-159-10 (57.5%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Cleveland Indians at New York Mets
CLE: Aaron Civale – R (1-2, 1.50 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (8-6, 3.86 ERA/1.21 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system likes the under once again in tonight’s Indians-Mets game. These two teams have battled hard with one another throughout the first two meetings, and we’d like to think that’ll be three in three nights. The first game of this series might not have looked like it on paper, but a late error from the Indians took the train off the track a little bit .

Aaron Civale has been outstanding since making his MLB debut on June 22 – it actually took him more than a month to make his second, third and fourth starts, but the Indians surely don’t want to send this guy back down to the minors. The rookie has now allowed a total of four earned runs (seven unearned) in 24 innings of work, and now he’ll be facing a team that is quite unfamiliar with him.

Noah Syndergaard has looked great since the All-Star break with seven straight starts of allowing three earned runs or fewer – only two earned runs allowed or fewer in six of those. What’s even more amazing is the fact that Syndergaard has only allowed one home run over that stretch.

While we do like the Indians to avoid the sweep tonight, this should still be a great pitching matchup between two righties. It’ll likely be decided late, and certainly a game that we’ll all want to be around the TV for.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 4 – New York Mets: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, August 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 199-140-8 (58.6%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 35-8-2 record over the last 45 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: +120)
CLE: Adam Plutko – R (4-2, 4.55 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (12-5, 3.61 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Today’s SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day is the Twins covering the 1.5-run line over the Indians. It’s about time Minnesota gets on the board in this series, having already let Cleveland grab a share of the AL Central lead.

Vegas has spoken already, giving the Twins a +0.4 IRT (implied run total) increase, which is tied for the highest of any team on today’s MLB schedule.

Thankfully for Minnesota, it’ll have the luxury of putting Jake Odorizzi on the mound. He has absolutely dominated Cleveland this season, posting a 0.71 WHIP while allowing only two runs and striking out 13 batters in 11 1/3 innings.

Odorizzi has been just as good in each of his last two starts overall (@MIA, vs ATL) allowing two runs and striking out 12 batters in 11 2/3 innings of work.

Adam Plutko might look like he has solid numbers of late, but he has lucked out by facing the Royals twice and a struggling Angels team. Nonetheless, Plutko will be running into a desperate Twins team looking to regain that lead in the AL Central.

While the Twins do have Nelson Cruz on the injured list, the top of their lineup (Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Rosario) still has great advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Look for them to be a key factor in the Twins getting back on the good foot tonight.

All in all, the Twins need a huge team performance to stay afloat, they’ll get it. Look for Plutko to take a step back and Minnesota’s offense to get back into rhythm.

* Final Score Prediction * Minnesota Twins: 6 – Cleveland Indians: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, July 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 151-122-7 (55.3%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Cleveland Indians (ML: -170) at Toronto Blue Jays
CLE: Mike Clevinger – R (3-2, 3.57 ERA/1.05 WHIP)
TOR: Ryan Borucki – L (season debut)

The SpreadKnowledge system has the Indians moneyline (-170) as the third-most outcome on today’s slate, making them one of three teams to receive an A-grade. Cleveland owns a 28-11 record since June 4, which is best in MLB over that span. Not to mention, the Indians swept a four-game series against the Blue Jays earlier this season.

After a couple of rough outings coming off the injured list, Mike Clevinger has gotten back on track with three starts of allowing one run or fewer. In those outings, he pitched a total of 17 innings and allowed only two runs and a 1.00 WHIP while striking out 27 batters.

The Blue Jays 3.9 implied total is the third-lowest on today’s entire schedule of games. For whatever it’s worth, Clevinger pitched five innings of shutout ball against Toronto back on April 7 and struck out 10 batters in the process.

We don’t have much to go on for Ryan Borucki, who has been limited to four minor league rehab outings this season. He will, however, run into a Cleveland offense that has a .366 weighted on-base average and .225 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.
Look for the Indians to keep rolling over a Blue Jays that finally gets to come back home after a tough 10-game road trip to open the second half of the season.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 6 – Toronto Blue Jays: 2

[8:10 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics (ML: +217) at Houston Astros
OAK: Homer Bailey – R (8-6, 4.69 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (10-5, 3.12 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system is ranking the A’s as one of the most valuable plays on the board tonight at +217 on the moneyline. It won’t be easy, as the Astros send Gerrit Cole to the mound, but there are a few reasons to think Oakland can pull off the upset on Monday.

Homer Bailey had a solid outing in his first start with the A’s, and he’s certainly capable of a repeat performance in this matchup, albeit against an Astros team that is as good as any in MLB. It is worth noting, though, that Bailey is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA/0.92 WHIP in eight career starts against the Astros.

The A’s will need to be on top of their game if they plan of making up any ground in the AL West race, sitting 6.5 games behind the Astros. They’ll have to go through Cole, who has been on top of his game recently. But there is reason to think we could see him falter a little bit against a talented A’s lineup.

Oakland has zaftig .393 weighted on-base average and .282 ISO numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Not to mention, the A’s have a 21-7 record since June 17, so we’re getting tons of value on a quality team here tonight.

* Final Score Prediction * Oakland A’s: 4 – Houston Astros: 3

[9:45 p.m. EST] Chicago Cubs (ML: -112) at San Francisco Giants
CHC: Alec Mills – R (0-0, 4.50 ERA/1.00 WHIP)
SF: Shaun Anderson – R (3-2, 4.87 ERA/1.50 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has the Cubs moneyline (-112) as the second-most likely outcome on tonight’s slate. After all, Chicago is 9-3 over the last 12 games and we’re getting an extremely good price on them in a matchup they should excel in.

Shaun Anderson takes the mound for the Giants, and he’s been getting hit around with great regularity. Over his last 13 1/3 innings, Anderson has allowed a total of 22 hits and 13 runs. The Cubs have been finding most of their success lately from the pitching, but this is a great spot for the offense to have a big night at Oracle Park. It’s really been the key players (Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, Baez) in the zone for this team lately, and a couple of good performances from these guys should have them comfortably in the lead for most of the night.

Alec Mills made his season debut on Tuesday, going six innings and allowing three runs. It wasn’t a performance worthy of hanging on our hat on tonight but looking at Mills career numbers, the 1.17 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 27 1/3 innings show that he’s off to a good start.

The Giants had a string of games where they were pounding the baseball, but their advanced
metrics against right-handed pitching took a big dip upon returning back to their home ballpark. Look for Mills to keep the San Francisco offense at bay for most of the night, and ultimately get the win.

* Final Score Prediction * Chicago Cubs: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, July 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 140-113-6 (55.3%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (1.5-run line: -134)
DET: Ryan Carpenter – L (1-5, 8.36 ERA/1.75 WHIP)
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (3-3, 4.00 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

It has been a rough go of things for the Tigers against the Indians, losing nine of the 10 meetings this season, including each of the last eight. In fact, Cleveland has outscored Detroit by a total of 63-27 in those contests. Tonight’s -260 moneyline number for the Indians matches their highest of the season, so I feel comfortable taking the 1.5-run line here and saving some money to lay.

Things won’t get any better for the Tigers tonight as they send Ryan Carpenter out to the hill. The lefty has a 7.95 ERA/1.73 WHIP in 14 career MLB appearances, including a 12.38 ERA/2.50 WHIP in two starts against the Indians. Carpenter has allowed at least seven hits in six of his eight starts, and that’ll be a dangerous proposition to do such a thing against such a talented lineup.

Since the beginning of July, Cleveland has posted seven runs or more five times, with all of those big totals coming against lesser-talented teams – just like the one it’ll see tonight. Detroit’s bullpen owns the fifth-worst ERA (5.01) in baseball and the team, as a whole, has allowed exactly eight runs in three of its four games since the All-Star break.

On the other side, Zach Plesac has been excellent to start his MLB career, allowing two runs or fewer in five of his first eight starts. The rookie right-hander had a great outing against the Tigers back on June 23, allowing five hits, one walk and one run, while inducing a season-high 10 ground-ball outs over seven innings en route to an 8-3 Indians’ victory.

The Tigers’ offense has been struggling all season, but especially against right-handed pitching, as they own the second-worst wOBA (.286) in baseball in that split – just a fraction above the MLB-worst Marlins.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 8 – Detroit Tigers: 2

[8:15 p.m. EST] Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals (ML: -175)
PIT: Dario Agrazal – R (2-0, 2.81 ERA/1.31 WHIP)
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-6, 4.64 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

We’ve had glimpses of Jack Flaherty displaying the type of dominance he’s capable of, but he hasn’t done it consistently. If that last outing before the break – allowing two hits, one walk and one run over seven innings – against a red-hot Giants lineup is any indication of where Flaherty is heading, we’re in for a treat tonight.

Not only has Flaherty pitched better at home this season, but he’s also done well against the Pirates lifetime. The righty has a 3-1 record to go along with a 2.48 ERA/1.00 WHIP in five career starts.

The Pirates have lost four straight since the All-Star break, while the Cardinals have won their last three games. Not to mention, Pittsburgh has only scored a total of 10 runs in those four games.

Dario Agrazal has been great for the Pirates since making his debut on June 15. However, he’s shown a huge weakness early on, allowing right-handed batters to hit for .353 average, compared to lefties hitting .148. The Cardinals lineup will have plenty of right-handed power coming at Agrazal tonight, so look for the rookie to take the first loss of his career.

All in all, we’ve got two teams heading in opposite directions. We like the Cardinals to continue their winning ways over a struggling Pirates team. Vegas did give the Cardinals a nice +0.4 IRT (implied run total) increase, which is actually the highest for any team on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2

[8:15 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 – Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
CHW: Dylan Cease – R (1-0, 5.40 ERA/1.60 WHIP)
KC: Glenn Sparkman – R (2-5, 5.18 ERA/1.40 WHIP)

Whenever the Royals and White Sox have gotten together this season, runs have not been showing up on the scoreboard. In fact, nine of the 12 meetings between the teams have gone under the total – just as it did last night. We’re looking for more of the same tonight, as the SpreadKnowledge system has the total going under in this game as the top-rated play on the entire slate.

Glenn Sparkman may not be the greatest pitcher in baseball, but he certainly knows what he’s doing at Kauffman Stadium. The righty has a 2-2 record to go along with a 2.19 ERA/1.11 WHIP in nine appearances there this season. Sparkman’s last three outings at home have been against quality opponents (Twins, White Sox, Red Sox), and he’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of those.

The White Sox offense has been dreadful against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with a .292 xwOBA (quality of contact) and .126 ISO (power metric). For reference, we want to see xwOBA in the .350s and higher, while ISO is preferred in the .200s or better. Sparkman won’t get many strikeouts, but perhaps he can see an uptick since the White Sox have been striking out around 25% of the time over that span against righties.

Five of the last six White Sox games have gone under the total, and their offense is a big reason why as they posted no more than three runs in any of those contests.

Dylan Cease made his debut for Chicago on July 3, his only MLB outing up to this point. He allowed three runs over five innings while striking out six Tigers, so there’s not a ton to go off there. However, Cease should certainly benefit from facing a Royals lineup that has similar .293 xwOBA and .137 ISO numbers to his own team’s offense against righties over the last 21 days. Not to mention, the Royals are striking out just over 25% of the time against right-handed pitching over that span.

Four of the last six Royals games have gone under the total, with the only two overs coming against a weak collection of Tigers’ arms.

* Final Score Prediction * Kansas City Royals: 4 – Chicago White Sox: 3

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 14.5 – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Drew Pomeranz – L (2-9, 6.42 ERA/1.77 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-1, 6.67 ERA/1.48 WHIP)

We missed the boat on the total going over in the second half of last night’s doubleheader, but Vegas is liking the bats to get back to action tonight. The game total has increased from 14.0 to 14.5, with both teams getting a +0.3 increase on their IRT (implied run total) – usually a good sign that offense is on the horizon. After playing two games yesterday, expect each team’s bullpen to be less effective than usual.

Drew Pomeranz has gotten absolutely ripped away from Oracle Park this season, posting a 1-4 record and 9.76 ERA/1.99 WHIP in seven starts. While he has done a decent job against the Rockies, Pomeranz has yet to face them at Coors Field.

Colorado’s offense has some issues it’s working through, especially after scoring a total of three runs in yesterday’s doubleheader, but this is a great spot to get back on the good foot. The star-studded lineup including Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story is not built to have long stretches of ineffectiveness.

Peter Lambert goes for the Rockies, and his brief time in the MLB and has been nothing short of miserable. Over his last four starts (17 2/3 innings), the rookie has allowed 30 hits, 20 runs and eight homers.

The Giants’ offense has been rocking and rolling, with at least seven runs in eight of the last 12 games. Prior to the second game of yesterday’s doubleheader, Rockies’ pitching had allowed 45 runs in the previous three contests.

According to the SpreadKnowledge system, the total going over is our second-strongest play of the night. Granted, we’re shooting for a sky-high total, but we’ve got plenty of reasons to know it’ll come through.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 12 – San Francisco Giants: 9

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, July 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 136-110-5 (55.3%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (10-4, 3.15 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (8-6, 3.61 ERA/1.17 WHIP)

Two talented righties take the mound at Progressive Field in their first start since the All-Star break.

Jake Odorizzi definitely needed the break to regather himself. The veteran’s last four outings haven’t gone well, but we can attribute some of those woes to a blister on his pitching hand and matchups against teams that have done well against him over the course of his career. Now that everything is healed up, look for Odorizzi to get back to his usually-dominant self.

Recently, Odorizzi had six of seven outings where he allowed one run or fewer. He actually had a season-high 11 strikeouts and allowed one hit (a solo homer) over six innings against the Indians in his only matchup against them in 2019. All in all, Odorizzi’s numbers are fairly solid against a good portion of the current Cleveland lineup so we should see plenty of continued success.

The guy we’re really banking on to have a good outing is Trevor Bauer, who has been a thorn in the side of a good majority of the Twins’ lineup. Now, his last outing against Minnesota isn’t one that we want to see again, but he does have 16 strikeouts in 15 innings against them this season.

Bauer had a few hiccups, but his good outings have been better than ever recently. In fact, Bauer has allowed one run or fewer in four of his last six starts.

Five of the last eight Twins’ games have gone under the total and we’re looking to see more of the same this evening. The SK system has the under on this game graded as the third-best pick on our MLB board today.

* Final Score Prediction * Cleveland Indians: 4 – Minnesota Twins: 3

[7:15 p.m. EST] Over 9 – San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (5-7, 4.03 ERA/1.20 WHIP)
MIL: Zach Davies – R (7-2, 3.07 ERA/1.38 WHIP)

Madison Bumgarner hasn’t been at his best on the road this season, registering a 2-5 record and 4.60 ERA away from Oracle Park. He did face the Brewers back on June 15, allowing five hits, three walks and five runs (three earned) over six innings – the final score in that game was 8-7, in favor of the Giants.

The key to the total going over could surprisingly be the suddenly potent Giants’ offense. It’s hard to believe, but this offense has posted at least seven runs in six of the last eight games – subsequently, the total has gone over in seven of those games. That also includes a 10-run output last night at Miller Park against these same Brewers.

Zach Davies had plenty of bad outings of late, and most of his success came in a whopping four starts against the Pirates in a span of seven outings. Thankfully, the Pirates aren’t in the ballpark tonight – it’ll be the Giants, and I can’t imagine too many people thought we’d be saying that.

Also playing in San Francisco’s favor is the fact that Milwaukee has allowed at least six runs in each of the last four games – all four of those games have gone over the total.

Vegas sees the value in the total going over tonight, as they’ve adjusted the game total from 8.5 to 9.0, with the IRT (implied run totals) increasing +0.3 for both sides.

All in all, the SK system is quite fond of the total going over in this game, making its B+ grade the fourth-highest on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 5

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 23

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 118-101-4 (54%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (ML: -200/1.5-run line: -114)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-5, 4.40 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (2-2, 2.56 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

The Indians are 7-1 against the Tigers this season, and it’s not looking like things will get any better for the visitors today. This will be the 11th time Cleveland is favored by -200 or more, with an 8-3 record in those games.  On the other hand, Detroit has been struggling, with losses in seven of the last eight contests.

Zach Plesac, the nephew of former MLB pitcher Dan Plesac, has lived up to the namesake early in his career. The rookie righty has allowed two runs or fewer in four of the last five starts – one run or fewer in three of the five. Detroit’s numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days are absolutely dreadful — .287 wOBA, .145 ISO and 25.4% K-rate.

On the flip side, Cleveland’s offense has been the exact opposite against left-handed pitching. The Tribe has a magnificent .400 wOBA, .292 ISO and 14.4% K-rate in that split over the last 21 days.

While Daniel Norris hasn’t exactly gotten beat over the head recently, it’ll be tough for him to keep up that level of effectiveness today against an Indians team that is rocking and rolling — pun intended to the city of Cleveland.

Lastly, we’ve got a huge difference in bullpens here, as the Indians own the league’s best ERA (3.21) and the Tigers have the fifth-worst (5.18).

I don’t mind taking the Indians on the moneyline or 1.5-run line here — they get it done either which way.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -106) at Washington Nationals
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (8-1, 2.12 ERA/
WSH: Austin Voth – R (season debut)

Mike Soroka has looked a little more human after his unreal start to the season, but it’s still been enough to keep getting the Braves wins. The young Canadian righty only threw 68 pitches in his last outing, so look for him to be fully charged up for this one.

Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 when Soroka starts against teams with a losing record this season and the team also own a 10-2 record on Sundays. The Braves have won the last eight of Soroka’s starts. Also, the Nationals have somehow never seen Soroka before, giving him the advantage of the unknown – it’s a thing.

Austin Voth gets a spot start for the Nationals today, in place of Joe Ross. Washington needed Ross to pitch last night in an emergency because of all the runs that were scored, and the fact that its bullpen has been taxed all week – including the doubleheader on Wednesday. Voth’s season down in Triple-A hasn’t been great, as he’s 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA.

This is all great news for the Braves’ offense today, and Vegas has taken note by elevating their IRT an entire run from 4.6 to 5.6 – the third-highest on the entire slate. Atlanta’s offense also owns a massive .385 wOBA and .260 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 10 – Washington Nationals: 3 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres (ML: -142) at Pittsburgh Pirates
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (6-4, 3.74 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
PIT: Steven Brault – L (3-1, 4.40 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Padres will be looking to avoid the sweep and look to have the right guy for the job in Joey Lucchesi, who is coming off a masterful seven-inning shutout performance against the Brewers. Lucchesi has been solid, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, and he already stifled this Pirates’ offense a little more than a month ago by allowing only two runs over seven innings.

Not to mention, the Pirates own the league’s third-lowest wOBA (.284) against left-handed pitching. Pittsburgh’s .282 xwOBA against lefties over the last 21 days indicates they’re not seeing the ball well either and with Lucchesi’s herky-jerky motion won’t make things any easier.

It’s certainly an optimistic outlook for the Padres, as this will be their second-highest moneyline odds on the road this season.

Steven Brault goes for the Pirates, and he’ll have trouble against a Padres’ lineup featuring seven right-handed bats. As a team, San Diego owns a massive .256 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Look for Lucchesi’s big outing to lead the way to a Padres’ victory today.

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 7 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 21

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 114-96-4 (54.2%) *

 

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-108) – Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: -128)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (3-6, 3.73 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (6-1, 4.89 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Both teams have been absolutely dreadful against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with the Marlins registering slightly worse numbers. Their .086 ISO in that split will certainly be hard to overcome, especially with 12 mph winds blowing in from left field.

If you think runs at Citizens Bank Park are always at a premium, that’s just not the case – eight of the last 12 games there have gone under the total.

Aaron Nola certainly hasn’t been at his best recently (and most of this season), but this matchup against the Marlins is one that he’s dominated in the past. Over his last five starts (33 innings) against Miami, the righty has allowed only six runs and a 1.00 WHIP. While the matchup lends some optimism, Nola has been much better at Citizens Bank Park over the course of his career. His numbers certainly signal that this season, as evidenced by the 3.51 ERA at home and 7.28 ERA on the road.

Philly’s offense really sputtered in the last game of the Atlanta series and then throughout the Washington series. As I mentioned at the top, their numbers aren’t great against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days – .280 wOBA and 25% K-rate. On the season as a whole, the Phils now own the eighth-worst wOBA (.309) against righties.

Sandy Alcantara was snake-bitten by his defense in a recent start, but he’s allowed one earned run or fewer now in four of the last six starts. The righty has only faced Philly twice in his career, with one glamorous outing and one bad outing – that one coming this season. However, given the Phils’ current state of affairs at the plate and the wind blowing in tonight, I’m not too worried about Alcantara getting beat over the head.

I like the Phils to get the victory, but it’ll have to come in a tight game. Philly is 5-2 against Miami this season, with a four of the seven games going under the total. The SK Trend Confidence rating is also high on the Phils to get this win on the 1.5-run line, and that plays right into the narrative.

* Final Score Prediction – Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 (-118) – Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-5, 3.35 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (5-6, 3.41 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

Vegas knows that a big-time pitching performance is coming from one of these studs tonight, as both teams had their IRTs decreased – Indians: -0.6, Tigers: -0.4. Also, it’s not an overwhelming sign, but it does help that there will be 7 mph winds blowing in from center field.

What Trevor Bauer did against the Tigers in his last outing will be greatly appreciated if he does it again. The quirky righty had his first complete-game shutout of the season in the eight-strikeout performance, en route to an 8-0 Indians’ victory. It does appear like Bauer could be finally getting back on track after a shaky start to the season. In Bauer’s previous outing, he allowed one run over 7 2/3 innings and that’s now back-to-back performances that notched Indians’ wins.

It’s also worth noting that Cleveland’s bullpen has the best ERA (3.36) in baseball.

Matt Boyd is coming off his worst performance of the season, which was quite shocking since it was against a Royals’ team that is woeful against left-handed pitching. I’m not going to write him off because he still has elite swing-and-miss stuff, notching 112 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings this season. Boyd has actually held Cleveland to one run or fewer in four of his seven career performance – in three other games, Boyd held them to two, three and six runs. There’s a history of goodness here.

Cleveland is 5-1 against the Detroit this season, with under registering a 4-1-1 record in those games. The Indians have also outscored the Tigers 38-12 this season.

The total going under is the fifth-highest SK Trend Confidence rating on tonight’s slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 1 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-118) – Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (3-5, 3.77 ERA/1.21 WHIP)
MIL: Chase Anderson – R (3-1, 4.05 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

There are very strong trends for the total going under in Milwaukee tonight, and it’s actually the second-highest graded pick in our system. It’s also good news that both teams have seen their IRTs decrease – Brewers: -0.2, Reds: -0.3 – since the open.

Five of the six Brewers-Reds games this season have gone under the total, and both starting pitchers have a great history against each team. Not to mention, 15 of the last 16 Reds’ games have gone under the total, while Brewers’ games have suffered the same fate in three of the last four.

Let’s start with Sonny Gray, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his 14 starts this season. In his last outing against Milwaukee, Gray matched a season-high nine strikeouts en route to a Cincy 3-0 victory. He could have another big performance like that one, considering the Brewers own a 31.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Behind Gray is the Reds’ bullpen, who has allowed the fewest homers (28) and second-lowest ERA (3.40) in baseball.

Chase Anderson doesn’t have a long leash, compared to most MLB pitchers, so we’re essentially relying on the Brewers’ bullpen for half the game. They have the 10th-best ERA (3.38) and are right around that same area for the season.

It’s not like Anderson has been getting crushed, but he should do just fine against a Reds’ lineup that owns a dreadful .266 xwOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. After that, the Brewers’ bullpen will pick it up from there.

I don’t necessarily like a side here, but a low-scoring game is certainly on the horizon.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers (ML: -190/1.5-run line: +120)
COL: German Marquez – R (7-3, 4.57 ERA/1.23 WHIP)
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (7-1, 3.06 ERA/0.92 WHIP)

We’ve got a tale of two pitchers heading in opposite directions, and that’s why the SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest on the Dodgers tonight. LA’s moneyline and 1.5-run are the top trends of any other selections on the entire day’s slate.

Walker Buehler has been downright filthy, allowing one earned run or fewer in six of his last starts. The young righty has done some of his best work lately against some of the better bats in the National League – Cubs and D-Backs. Over his last 22 innings of work, Buehler has allowed one run and a ridiculous 0.45 WHIP while striking out 26 batters.

Sure, the Rockies have plenty of talented bats, but they have their fair share of games with a high strikeout total. Not to mention, their current roster has a combined .189 batting average and .267 on-base percentage against Buehler lifetime.

On the other hand, German Marquez is getting absolutely ripped by opposing hitters. Over the last three games/17 innings (Cubs x2, Padres), he’s allowed 22 hits (5 HR), seven walks and 19 runs. Yikes! A good number of these Dodgers’ hitters have a solid history against Marquez, and it’s setting up to be another good night for the boys in blue.

The Dodgers are 31-9 at home and 21-5 at home against teams with a right-handed starting pitcher this season.

* Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers: 6 – Colorado Rockies: 0 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 11

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 101-81-4 (55.5%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-116) – Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
TOR: Trent Thornton – L (1-4, 4.73 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
BAL: John Means – L (5-4, 2.67 ERA/1.07 WHIP)

The highest SK Trend Confidence rating of the day is the under on this Blue Jays-Orioles game. According to the Vegas trends, the Blue Jays are somehow getting more love. It does, however, give me confidence that Toronto’s Trent Thornton will have a good outing on the mound, leading us to the total going under.

Thornton has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his last eight starts. I guess part of the reason for the Blue Jays’ love in Vegas is the Orioles’ anemic .235 wOBA and .067 ISO against left-handed pitching these last 21 days. That’ll typically do it.

The part that really baffles me is that John Means takes the mound for Baltimore, and he’s been nothing short of miraculous at home for this awful team. The rookie southpaw is 3-1 in seven appearances (five starts) at Camden Yards, with a 1.53 ERA and an opposing batting average of .173. Not to mention, Toronto owns the fifth-worst wOBA (.283) and ISO (.146) against lefties this season.

We do have two Blue Jays’ hitters to worry about, though, as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Lourdes Gurriel have both crushed lefties over the last 21 days. If that’s where Means gets beat, it’ll likely be from there.

I don’t get it, but I’ve also learned to not doubt Vegas. I’ll give the Blue Jays the nod, but the total going under looks a lot better, especially with the wind blowing in at about 9 mph.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 3 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-118) – Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (6-1, 2.26 ERA/1.10 WHIP)
CLE: Trevor Bauer – R (4-6, 3.93 ERA/1.16 WHIP)

This nightmare has to end eventually for Trevor Bauer – it just has to. He is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, and it should be noted that there have been glimmers of hope this season.

Speaking of hope, an in-state matchup against the Reds offers just that. No other team in baseball has scored fewer runs (15) since the start of June, and it’s been seven straight games involving Cincy where the total has gone under. The Reds also rank in the bottom-third of MLB in most advanced metrics against right-handed pitching this season.

Four of Bauer’s five career starts against the Reds have gone under the total, as he’s amassed a 1.20 WHIP in those games.

Luis Castillo had some slip-ups recently, but overall this is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball. In night starts this season, Castillo has gone 6-0 with a microscopic 1.50 ERA and 58 strikeouts over 48 innings.

With the Reds’ inability to score runs of late, I’m going with the Indians to get the victory. But the main play here is going under the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 3 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-120) – Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
SEA: Mike Leake – R (5-6, 4.30 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
MIN: Martin Perez – L (7-2, 3.72 ERA/1.42 WHIP)

Mike Leake is coming off two consecutive dazzling performances, including a complete-game one-run gem against the Astros last time out. However, most of Leake’s success has come at T-Mobile Park this season, which is not where he’ll be tonight. Instead, he’ll be at Target Field in Minnesota, where the Twins are 67-40 at home since last season (19-9 this season). Not to mention, the Mariners are a horrific 5-25 against teams with a winning record in 2019.

The Twins’ offense has been destroying opposing pitchers of both handedness, but their 35-15 record against right-handed starters this season speaks plenty of volumes. Over the last 21 days, the Twins have a massive .380 wOBA and .316 ISO against righties.

Martin Perez should be ecstatic to get back on the mound at home, where he owns a 3-1 record and 2.51 ERA this season. However, he’s allowed 11 runs (eight earned) over the last 7 1/3 innings of work, and the Mariners’ offense has a robust .366 wOBA and .243 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

We’ve got two more primary facts of evidence going in our favor for the total going over – Each team’s bullpen is getting ripped over the last 14 days and the wind will be blowing out to left field at 9 mph.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is very high on the Twins tonight, with B+ grades on their moneyline and 1.5-run line, but the over is my main play here.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 9 – Seattle Mariners: 6 *

[8:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -116) at Chicago White Sox
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (5-4, 3.59 ERA/1.20 WHIP)
CHW: Manny Banuelos – L (3-4, 7.36 ERA/1.83 WHIP)

We’ve got a HUGE mismatch of offense against left-handed pitching that we need to exploit tonight. In the words of Ace Ventura, “Alllllrighty then!”

The Nationals own the fourth-best wRC+ (117) and fifth-best wOBA (.354) against lefties this season. That’s terrible news for Manny Banuelos, who has allowed at least five runs in four of his last five starts. Not to mention, the Nats get an extra bat in their lineup tonight because of the DH rule in the American League Park.

Even better news for Washington is its performance against lefties over the last 21 days – about the amount of time their lineup has been mostly healthy. Over that time frame, the Nats have a gaudy .380 wOBA and .200 ISO against left-handed pitching.

The White Sox have been the complete opposite. Over the last 21 days, they have a putrid .258 wOBA and .037 ISO against left-handed pitching. Let’s all give a big YIIIIIKES to the White Sox chances tonight as they go against the very talented Patrick Corbin. Now, it’s worth noting that Corbin hasn’t been at his best of late, but an opponent like Chicago is certainly one which can get him back on track.

All in all, we’ve got stats-overload in our favor, and the Nationals should give Corbin more than enough run support in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 10 – Chicago White Sox: 4 *

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* Key terms used in today’s writing:

– ISO = Isolated Power (A sabermetric computation used to measure a player’s raw power. This distinguishes a batter with a .300 batting average and many singles, as opposed to a batter with a .300 average and more extra-base hits… typically, .200 is where you want to be in ISO.)

– wOBA = Weighted On-Base Average (A version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base. The value for each event is determined by how much it is worth in relation to a run created – Ex: a double is worth more than a single, a triple is worth more than a double, a home run is worth more than a triple, etc… about .320 is league average)

– xwOBA = Expected Weighted On-Base Average (The same thing as wOBA, just removing defense from the equation. An easy way of looking at xwOBA, would be to just imagine there are no fielders on the playing surface.)

– wRC+ = Weighted Runs Created Plus (Runs created + adjusting the number to account for important external factors – like ballpark or ERA… 100 is league average)

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

Game 3, NBA Finals: Toronto Raptors (+4.5, -105) at Golden State Warriors

It’s incredibly difficult to gauge this game without truly knowing the status of Klay Thompson. The part that is even more frustrating is that this decision likely won’t be up to him – rather, the Warriors’ training staff. Klay’s mobility will be tested out in pregame warmups, and a decision will be made at that time.

If Thompson is unable to go, it’ll be a huge advantage for the visiting Raptors, who actually won here in Oakland by 20 points back in December. Not only does he provide an unlimited outside range, but Klay’s defense is just flat out dominant. Losing two big aspects like that could be too much for even the almighty Warriors to overcome.

Aside from the first six minutes of the third quarter in Game 2, you can argue that the Raptors have controlled this series. Their length has proven to be difficult for the smaller Warriors, and if Klay does indeed miss tonight’s game, you have to believe the Raptors will throw box-and-1 and double-team defenses at him all night.

It is worth noting, the Warriors have either lost or won by single-digits in five of their seven home playoff games during this run. For the final score prediction, I’ll give it to Raptors with the assumption Klay sits out. If he’s in, I think the Warriors win, but without covering the spread.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Raptors: 108 – Golden State Warriors: 104 *

 

* 2019 MLB Record: 95-77-4 (55.2%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Minnesota Twins (ML: -130) at Cleveland Indians
MIN: Martin Perez – L (7-2, 3.71 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
CLE: bullpen game

By the way, I just want to mention how utterly furious I am at the onset. I had this gorgeous article written up for this game and how Carlos Carrasco was going to get beat over the head. Well, at about 3:00 p.m. EST, Carrasco was scratched and announced that he’ll be heading to the injured list.

Sigh. The life of a sports betting writer…

Our system has a B+ for Minnesota on the moneyline, and that was even when Carlos Carrasco was supposed to take the mound. Now, it’ll be a bullpen game for the Indians. Tyler Clippard will take the first inning and then it’s all up in the air from there. It is worth noting, though, that the Indians’ bullpen has the sixth-worst xFIP (expected fielding-independent pitching) over the last seven days. Oliver Perez is pretty much the only exception, but he probably won’t be used since he’s already pitched 4 2/3 innings over the last seven days, including throwing an inning last night.

Minnesota has been crushing baseballs all season, leading MLB in homers. Looking at it in a closer prism, though, the Twins’ projected lineup owns a massive .354 wOBA (weighted on-base average) and .278 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days. I assume they’ll some mostly right-handers tonight.

Martin Perez’s last start was his worst outing of the season, allowing six hits and six runs over 2 2/3 innings. Prior to that disaster, Perez had allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts, while averaging about 6 1/3 innings per outing over that span. It also helps that the Indians own the sixth-lowest wOBA in baseball against left-handed pitching.

Behind Perez is the Minnesota bullpen, which ranks in the top-three of MLB of most advanced pitching metrics over the last 14 days.

Two trends to look at heading into tonight:
– Twins are 15-4 after a loss this season
– Twins are 21-10 in road games this season

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 5 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-104) – Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
BAL: John Means – L (5-4, 2.80 ERA/1.10 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (5-4, 2.74 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Two outstanding lefties take the mound at Globe Life Park tonight. I’m usually nervous about taking the under in Texas with humid conditions, but not with John Means and Mike Minor going toe-to-toe.

Let’s start with the homey Minor, who owns a 2.50 ERA in six home starts this season. Unfortunately, he would’ve had better numbers, but a trashy fifth-inning defensive performance and a homer that scraped the foul pole in his last outing thwarted that. Discredit that one bad inning and ride Minor to a low total tonight. Yeehaw!

On the other side, Means has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts since being placed in the starting rotation. In fact, he allowed only run in four of those starts. Means has already pitched well in environments like Camden Yards, Coors Field, Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium – so what’s the big deal adding some Globe Life Park to the mix? Not to mention, the Rangers have a putrid .280 xwOBA and .139 ISO over the last 14 days against left-handed pitching.

Even with the humid conditions, Vegas dropped the IRTs for both sides (Orioles: -0.2, Rangers: -0.3) while the game total went from 9.5 to 9.0 as well. Neither team’s bullpen is one that I want to trust, but I’ll give the Rangers the edge at home after dropping one last night.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 4 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-102) – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Anthony DeSclafani – R (2-3, 4.97 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (4-3, 3.94 ERA/1.58 WHIP)

Weather permitting, we should have ourselves a good ole fashioned slugfest at Busch Stadium. The conditions are great for hitting, with temperatures in the upper-80s and humidity playing a big factor.

Vegas has taken notice, increasing the IRTs for both sides (Cardinals: +0.7, Reds: +0.4) and the game total from 8.5 to 9.5. Both of these teams have been playing to a lot of totals going under of late, so it makes the Vegas movement even more intriguing.

Anthony DeSclafani, from the great state of New Jersey, has been getting ripped over his last five starts. The righty has allowed 31 hits, 19 runs and nine over the last 23 1/3 innings of work. The heart of the Cards’ order has hit DeSclafani well over the course of their careers, so look for that to continue on Wednesday.

Dakota Hudson has been doing a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, but a lot of these Reds’ hitters can still make life difficult on him. Cincy did put eight baserunners (seven hits, one walk) up against him in their previous meeting. Not to mention, they have a fantastic .347 wOBA and .213 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 7 – Cincinnati Reds: 5 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

[8:00 p.m. EST] NBA Finals – Game 2:
Under 213 (-110) – Golden State Warriors (ML: +112) at Toronto Raptors

Everyone was surprised by the outcome of Game 1, when the Raptors came out and dominated a rusty Warriors squad. It’s interesting to see nearly the same spread in consecutive games, but I’m calling Vegas’s bluff here.

I feel like too many people have already forgotten just how amazing this Warriors team is. They did a fantastic job on Kawhi Leonard, forcing him to give up the ball at nearly every turn. Expect Golden State to continue doing that, while Draymond Green turns up the intensity on Pascal Siakam. As Dray said after Game 1, he has to do a better job of making life difficult on Siakam – and he probably will.

The Warriors didn’t give Stephen Curry too much help in the series opener but expect that to change tonight. Hopefully, the refs let Klay Thompson get away with more of those “seven steps to the hole” moves. Not that they’ll need it though…

SK’s Trend Confidence rating also likes the under in tonight’s game. It makes sense, considering the game total has dropped two points and the Warriors defense should be much better.

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 103 – Toronto Raptors: 99 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 91-72-4 (55.8%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (0-0, 1.69 ERA/0.94 WHIP)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (7-1, 2.85 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

Lucas Giolito has been outstanding for the White Sox this season, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and 69 strikeouts over 60 innings. It’s been so good for Giolito, that he’s allowed one run or fewer in each of his last five starts – all White Sox wins. Not only that, but Chicago has outscored its competition by a combined score of 19-5 over that span.

That goes to show you how few runs are being scored in some of these White Sox games. In fact, the total has gone under in 18 of the team’s last 25 games. We can also thank their bullpen, who has the fifth-best xFIP (3.72) in MLB over the last seven days.

Zach Plesac did a great job in his MLB debut last time out, allowing one run over 5 1/3 innings to a talented Red Sox lineup. Chicago’s offense has struggled mightily of late against right-handed pitching with .295 wOBA and .113 ISO numbers over the last 14 days. It probably won’t help the White Sox, considering they’ve never seen Plesac before and have limited footage on him. The Indians haven’t necessarily been pounding the ball either and got skilled by Giolito back on May 7 which ended up being a 2-0 White Sox win.

I’m looking for another low-scoring affair like there’s been in each of the last two games in this series. After all, the under has one of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (B+) of the day with this game

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[3:10 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-106) Toronto Blue Jays (ML: +124) at Colorado Rockies
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-5, 3.75 ERA/1.52 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela (3-4, 5.81 ERA/1.65 WHIP)

Vegas has spoken loudly by increasing the total by an entire run on this game, with both IRTs increasing as well: Blue Jays: +0.8, Rockies: +0.3. Just like the IRT increase, Toronto’s moneyline jump (+147 to +124) is the highest for any team on the slate.

The real key to the over today is Rockies’ pitcher Antonio Senzatela, who has a 6.17 ERA and .304 opposing batting average at Coors Field this season. Not only that, but Senzatela has been seen very well by opposing hitters in any setting of late, allowing 18 hits and five walks over his last 9 1/3 innings of work.

Aaron Sanchez will give it a go for the Blue Jays, and he’s been dealing with some finger issues of late. You have to wonder how far Sanchez will be pushed in this game, considering he has thrown 64 pitches or fewer in three of the last four starts. That’d be great news for the Rockies, as the Blue Jays’ bullpen has the sixth-highest WHIP (1.62) in MLB over the last seven days.

The Rockies have been excellent, going 8-1 on this current 10-game homestand, but it’s time for them to drop one to this pesky Blue Jays bunch. Those IRT and moneyline increases for Toronto are just way too telling here.

Toronto games have gone over the total in eight of the last 12, with two of those misnomers being pushes. Colorado games have gone over in seven of the last 11. It also helps that the wind will be blowing out at about 10 mph to left field.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 7 *

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (2-2, 2.83 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
NYY: C.C. Sabathia – L (3-1, 3.48 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Hey, if you don’t like NBA Finals basketball… what the hell is wrong with you? Or, if you got two TVs or will find yourself at the local watering hole, ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is a fantastic game to bet the over on tonight.

The Yankees absolutely own David Price, but luckily, he won’t have to deal with Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, Gary Sanchez and Luke Voit are still around and that’ll never be good news for David Price. Lifetime, Sanchez is 6-for-13 with five homers against him, while Voit is 3-for-5 with two homers.

Even though some of these younger Yanks don’t have a ton of experience against Price, rest assured that those vets will relay their knowledge down to them.

On the other side, old age might finally be catching up to CC Sabathia. The veteran lefty has now allowed 11 homers in his last 31 1/3 innings of work. While CC has historically pitched well against the Red Sox, this current version of him is certainly not in peak form.

This ballpark plays well for power hitters, so expect there to be quite a few long balls tonight. I’m not necessarily loving one side over the other, but definitely over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – New York Yankees: 6 *