Tag: San Diego Padres

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, August 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 210-149-10 (58.5%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 45-17-4 record over the last 66 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:05 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: -105)

SD: Dinelson Lamet – R (1-2, 3.86 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (7-11, 4.49 ERA/1.37 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day is the Phillies winning over the Padres. Philly is one of the hottest teams in baseball right now with four straight wins, scoring 30 runs over that stretch. San Diego has lost four of its last five games.

Zach Eflin could very well be the key to this victory tonight. After all, he’s pitched much better of late since going to the bullpen and this will be his first start since the move. Eflin had a string of bad outings against quality opponents like the Braves, Dodgers and Mets, but the Padres team he’ll be facing tonight has woeful .274 weighted on-base average, .151 ISO (power metric) and 34% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

When looking at this matchup, Vegas is giving a bit more credit to Dinelson Lamet than it should. Granted, he is one of the talented up-and-coming arms in baseball, but Lamet does have control issues from time-to-time and hasn’t really gone that deep into games since returning from a 15-month layoff from Tommy John surgery.

As we mentioned at the top, Philly’s offense is rocking and rolling right now and this comes just a few days after former Phillies coach Charlie Manuel took over as the new hitting coach. Philly has been solid in general against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, posting .349 xwOBA (quality of contact) numbers – their .305 weighted on-base average in that time frame shows how unlucky they had been, and now that success has finally come around.

This could very well end up being a close game, but the value we’re getting on Philly is just too much to pass up. Look for this game to get off to a slow start offensively, but the Phils to take control late and come out victorious.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – San Diego Padres: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Thursday, August 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 196-137-8 (59%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 32-5-1 record over the last 38 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[10:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies (ML: -108) at San Diego Padres
COL: Jon Gray – R (10-7, 4.03 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (6-8, 4.43 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Padres-Rockies game, with the visitors coming out victorious. After all, Colorado has managed to win six of the nine meetings between the two teams this season.

Jon Gray has a fantastic history against the Padres, going 10-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP against them in 18 career starts. This season, he’s 2-0 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.40 WHIP versus San Diego in four outings (three starts).

Other than two blowup outings against the Giants, Gray has done quite well in his last nine starts, allowing three runs or fewer. It’s such a baffling feat, considering San Francisco has been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Nevertheless, Gray shouldn’t run into that problem tonight. The Padres’ offense has anemic .261 weighted on-base average, .147 ISO (power metric) and 30.3% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

For yesterday’s free pick, we had the over in the Padres-Mariners game, hoping the Padres would be able to smack Yusei Kikuchi around T-Mobile Park. If they couldn’t get it done in that great of a scenario, that should give us plenty of optimism for Gray to get it done tonight.

Eric Lauer has been consistently knocked around by this Rockies team, going 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA and 2.49 WHIP in four career starts. This season, it’s been even worse, allowing a total of 18 hits, four walks and 13 runs against Colorado with an opposing batting average of .529!

Both of these teams have been struggling of late, but we can be more compassionate to the Rockies and the difficulty of their schedule. Not to mention, the number of marquee pitchers they’ve faced during this run of losses.

All in all, we’re looking for Gray to outduel Lauer, and give the Rockies the victory in the process.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 5 – San Diego Padres: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Wednesday, August 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 192-136-9 (58.5%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 28-4-2 record over the last 34 picks — still two games pending from this afternoon, and we pushed on White Sox-Tigers total going under. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. You can click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[6:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (7-6, 4.23 ERA/1.18 WHIP)
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (4-8, 5.49 ERA/1.48 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Mariners-Padres game. We’ve got the total going over as one of higher plays on this slate, considering each of these lefty starting pitchers is in a tough spot.

Let’s start with Yusei Kikuchi, who will likely be the one giving up most of these runs. Kikuchi has allowed 28 homers this season in 118 innings this season, including eight of them in his last 15 2/3 innings of work.

The Padres’ lineup features a ton of power-hitting right-handed bats and get to use an extra one as the designated hitter tonight. They also own an impressive .354 weighted on-base average and .193 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, so things are certainly looking up in that regard.

Not to mention, the Mariners have allowed at least nine runs in four of their last five games.
Joey Lucchesi is a solid pitcher; he just does nearly all of his good work at Petco Park. On the road, however, it’s a much different story. Lucchesi can’t seem to get comfortable in a hotel bed, posting a 1-6 record and 6.46 ERA in nine road starts, and the splits are certainly disparaging when looking at the opposing batting average — .186 at home, compared to .282 on the road.

Seattle does have solid .338 weighted on-base average and .221 ISO numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

All in all, we’re expecting each of these starters to get lit up early, and that’ll coast us right to the victory.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 6

MLB Free Pick of the Day – Tuesday, July 23

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 152-124-7 (55.1%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres (ML: -137) at New York Mets
SD: Chris Paddack – R (6-4, 2.70 ERA/0.87 WHIP)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (4-5, 4.25 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

The Padres have had a rough go of things since the All-Star break, but they do have their best pitcher on the mound and a great matchup with all of their power-right bats to go against a left-handed pitcher. Vegas already put their stamp on this game, giving the Mets a -0.4 implied run total decrease, which is tied for the highest on tonight’s slate.

Chris Paddack has been outstanding this season, and he nearly had a no-hitter in his last start. The rookie righty has been incredibly dominant in his last three outings, allowing a total of six hits and two runs to go along with 22 strikeouts over his last 19 1/3 innings of work.

There’s a little bit of tension in this matchup against the Mets. Earlier this season, Paddack felt like he should have been named the NL Rookie of the Month for April. Pete Alonso of the Mets ended up winning the award, and Paddack said he was “coming for Alonso.” Paddack took that fire into a start earlier this season against New York, getting the win via 7 1/3 innings of scoreless ball. He even struck out Alonso in the first two at-bats.

Jason Vargas is finally starting to come back down to Earth, much to the delight of me and anyone else who loves to pick on the Mets. In the month of July, he has now allowed 12 runs and five homers over 16 1/3 innings of work.

Working against Vargas tonight is San Diego’s lineup, which has plenty of right-handed pop. The first four hitters in their lineup (Tatis Jr., Margot, Machado and Renfroe) all have an ISO/power metric of .250 or more against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. I’m no mathematician, but more at-bats from your power-hitting sources sounds like a great idea to me.

All in all, we’ve got a huge mismatch of starting pitchers that should bode well for San Diego tonight. Look for the Padres to use the long ball to their advantage and get the win in the process.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 5 – New York Mets: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, July 4 – Happy Independence Day!

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 129-110-5 (53.8%) *

[5:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-110) – New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (7-4, 5.23 ERA/1.28 WHIP)
TB: Yonny Chirinos – R (7-4, 3.10 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

J.A. Happ will look to keep his perfect 3-0 road record intact as the Yankees travel to Tropicana Field. For an extreme fly-ball pitcher like Happ, getting himself out of Yankee Stadium is something he’ll gladly welcome.

Since coming to New York, Happ is 2-0 against Tampa Bay while allowing only two runs in 12 total innings. The Rays’ offense hasn’t been comfortable against left-handed pitching, owning the second-worst K-rate (27%) in all of MLB in that split. In addition, their numbers against lefties aren’t great over the last 21 days either, with .281 wOBA and .130 ISO marks.

If all of that wasn’t enough, the Yankees’ bullpen will be right there behind Happ. Their numbers look terrible over the last week because of that trip to London, but we have to remember that the dimensions of that field were an absolute joke.

In nine meetings between the two teams this season, the Yankees have held the Rays to three runs or fewer seven times.

Yonny Chirinos has done a great job of becoming a traditional starter this season. In 17 of his appearances, Chirinos has only allowed more than three runs twice. Against the Yanks this season, the righty has held them to three runs over 10 2/3 total innings.

All in all, the total going under in this game has the highest rating of any on today’s schedule. I’ll give the Yanks the edge in this one too, considering their 7-2 mark against the Rays this season.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

[9:10 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (ML: -222) 
SD: Dinelson Lamet – R (season debut)
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (9-2, 1.83 ERA/0.90 WHIP)

We can’t take too much out of Hyun-Jin Ryu’s last outing, where he allowed seven runs in four innings, at Coors Field. After all, that has been a place of horrors for him over the years, and it was the first time he allowed more than two runs in an outing all season.

Ryu has had plenty of success against the Padres, going 7-1 in 10 career starts, with a 2.26 ERA/1.07 WHIP. Not to mention, Ryu has been flat-out unhittable at home this season, going 6-0 with a 0.94 ERA and the Dodgers are a whopping 16-2 in games at Dodger Stadium in games that he started.

On the other side, Dinelson Lamet will be making his first start in 15 months after recovering from Tommy John surgery. While he might be someone to look out for down the road, all of that time off is not going to help him in this matchup against the Dodgers. It’s a brutal matchup to be thrown back into the mix, considering the Dodgers are 36-9 at home this season.

The Dodgers are tied with the game above for the highest trend rating of the day in our system. Take them with confidence, knowing Ryu is money at home.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 5 – San Diego Padres: 1

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 28

!!! ATTENTION READERS !!! 

Just wanted to give everyone a heads up, but there won’t be any written articles tomorrow (6/29), next Friday (7/5) and next Saturday (7/6) due to prior commitments. Sorry for the inconvenience. All computer-generated picks will still be calculated and the site will be up and running on those days as usual.

 

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 125-106-4 (54%) *


[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-102) – Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
PIT: Chris Archer – R (3-6, 5.56 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
MIL: Jhoulys Chacin – R (3-8, 5.88 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

The Brewers’ offense surprisingly sputtered in their recent three-game series against the Mariners, but just watching yesterday’s game it was evident that bad luck played a part. Numerous hard-hit balls managed to find leather or landed a few steps from the wall.

Luckily, they’ll be facing a pitcher in Chris Archer who hasn’t been at his best. In fact, the right has allowed a homer in 11 of his 13 starts this season and owns a massive 8.42 ERA on the road. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Archer has allowed at least four runs and two homers in each of his three starts against Milwaukee.

On the other side, Jhoulys Chacin has been getting rocked all season. His last outing against the Pirates (on May 31) was downright brutal, as the righty allowed six hits/four walks and seven runs over 2 2/3 innings.

Good news for the Pirates – and the over – is that Brewers’ reliever Josh Hader pitched the final two innings yesterday to get the save. After pitching two innings the previous day, Hader has not entered the next day’s game once in his career.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a B+ grade on the over in this game, given how many runs these two teams have put up against each other this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 7

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-110) – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -134) at Colorado Rockies
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (9-1, 1.27 ERA/0.84 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (6-5, 4.91 ERA/1.57 WHIP)

In last night’s 12-8 slugfest, we saw exactly how helpful these hot temperatures at Coors Field are for the hitters. We’ve got the same conditions for tonight’s game, and that’s why Vegas has dramatically increased the total from 11.0 to 12.5, with the Dodgers (+0.9) and Rockies (+0.7) getting massive IRT increases.

There’s more reason to believe the Dodgers will add more runs to the game total. After all, Antonio Senzatela has been beaten over the head this season, especially at Coors field with a 6.21 ERA/1.59 WHIP. Senzatela did pitch well against the Dodgers last week, but we’ve seen plenty of teams capitalize offensively facing the same pitcher twice in a span of less than a week.

Hyun-Jin Ryu also faced the Rockies in his last start, allowing three runs (one earned) over six innings. However, Ryu has a 1-4 record over his last six start against Colorado, and it’s been even worse at Coors Field. In his last two starts there, the lefty has allowed 15 hits/six walks and 15 runs (10 earned) over six innings.

Just as the case was last night, the two bullpens will certainly be a factor and ultimately decide this one. In the month of June, the Dodgers’ bullpen has the second-best ERA (2.84) while the Rockies own the seventh-worst (5.46).

The SK Trend Confidence rating is strong on the Dodgers tonight in every fashion. After last night’s win, the Dodgers remain a perfect 7-0 against the Rockies this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 12 – Colorado Rockies: 10

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-112) – St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
STL: Michael Wacha – R (5-3, 5.59 ERA/1.67 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (5-7, 4.32 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

There has only been a total of 9.0 at Petco Park twice this season, which is quite telling for a ballpark that doesn’t have the stigma of being a hitter’s park. For what it’s worth, both times the total finished on or above the mark. Vegas adjusted the total from 8.5 to 9.0 and both teams obviously got an IRT increase as well – Cardinals: +0.2, Padres: +0.3.

A good reason for the increased total is the Padres’ recent tear of offense, with 28 runs over the last three games. In the month of June, Padres’ games have gone over the total 15 times in 23 games with two pushes mixed in there.

Michael Wacha has been hit or miss lately, allowing six runs or more in three of his last six starts. The Padres will run a mostly right-handed lineup out at Wacha tonight, and he’s been getting crushed from that side of the plate. Opposing righties are walloping him for .338 batting average, .406 on-base percentage and 1.025 OPS this season. Of the 14 homers Wacha has allowed, 12 of them have come from righties.

While the Cardinals haven’t necessarily clobbered the ball of late, facing the Padres can certainly do them some good. Eric Lauer will have to deal with a nearly all right-handed lineup to deal with, including Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna, who are both 4-for-5 against him lifetime – Goldy has two homers while Ozuna has one.

If all of that wasn’t enough, San Diego’s bullpen has the third-worst bullpen ERA (6.31) in the month of June – only the Mets and Orioles have done worse.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 4

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 23

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 118-101-4 (54%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Indians (ML: -200/1.5-run line: -114)
DET: Daniel Norris – L (2-5, 4.40 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (2-2, 2.56 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

The Indians are 7-1 against the Tigers this season, and it’s not looking like things will get any better for the visitors today. This will be the 11th time Cleveland is favored by -200 or more, with an 8-3 record in those games.  On the other hand, Detroit has been struggling, with losses in seven of the last eight contests.

Zach Plesac, the nephew of former MLB pitcher Dan Plesac, has lived up to the namesake early in his career. The rookie righty has allowed two runs or fewer in four of the last five starts – one run or fewer in three of the five. Detroit’s numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days are absolutely dreadful — .287 wOBA, .145 ISO and 25.4% K-rate.

On the flip side, Cleveland’s offense has been the exact opposite against left-handed pitching. The Tribe has a magnificent .400 wOBA, .292 ISO and 14.4% K-rate in that split over the last 21 days.

While Daniel Norris hasn’t exactly gotten beat over the head recently, it’ll be tough for him to keep up that level of effectiveness today against an Indians team that is rocking and rolling — pun intended to the city of Cleveland.

Lastly, we’ve got a huge difference in bullpens here, as the Indians own the league’s best ERA (3.21) and the Tigers have the fifth-worst (5.18).

I don’t mind taking the Indians on the moneyline or 1.5-run line here — they get it done either which way.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (1.5-run line: -106) at Washington Nationals
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (8-1, 2.12 ERA/
WSH: Austin Voth – R (season debut)

Mike Soroka has looked a little more human after his unreal start to the season, but it’s still been enough to keep getting the Braves wins. The young Canadian righty only threw 68 pitches in his last outing, so look for him to be fully charged up for this one.

Atlanta is a perfect 10-0 when Soroka starts against teams with a losing record this season and the team also own a 10-2 record on Sundays. The Braves have won the last eight of Soroka’s starts. Also, the Nationals have somehow never seen Soroka before, giving him the advantage of the unknown – it’s a thing.

Austin Voth gets a spot start for the Nationals today, in place of Joe Ross. Washington needed Ross to pitch last night in an emergency because of all the runs that were scored, and the fact that its bullpen has been taxed all week – including the doubleheader on Wednesday. Voth’s season down in Triple-A hasn’t been great, as he’s 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA.

This is all great news for the Braves’ offense today, and Vegas has taken note by elevating their IRT an entire run from 4.6 to 5.6 – the third-highest on the entire slate. Atlanta’s offense also owns a massive .385 wOBA and .260 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 10 – Washington Nationals: 3 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres (ML: -142) at Pittsburgh Pirates
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (6-4, 3.74 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
PIT: Steven Brault – L (3-1, 4.40 ERA/1.55 WHIP)

The Padres will be looking to avoid the sweep and look to have the right guy for the job in Joey Lucchesi, who is coming off a masterful seven-inning shutout performance against the Brewers. Lucchesi has been solid, allowing two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, and he already stifled this Pirates’ offense a little more than a month ago by allowing only two runs over seven innings.

Not to mention, the Pirates own the league’s third-lowest wOBA (.284) against left-handed pitching. Pittsburgh’s .282 xwOBA against lefties over the last 21 days indicates they’re not seeing the ball well either and with Lucchesi’s herky-jerky motion won’t make things any easier.

It’s certainly an optimistic outlook for the Padres, as this will be their second-highest moneyline odds on the road this season.

Steven Brault goes for the Pirates, and he’ll have trouble against a Padres’ lineup featuring seven right-handed bats. As a team, San Diego owns a massive .256 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Look for Lucchesi’s big outing to lead the way to a Padres’ victory today.

* Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 7 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, June 18

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 112-92-4 (55%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-5, 4.31 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (5-5, 4.11 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

Jake Arrieta has not been at his best of late, and his control has been a big reason why. The veteran righty has issued nine walks over his last two outings (10 2/3 innings), despite the Phillies getting the win in each of them. Not to mention, the road has not been kind to Arrieta, as he’s allowed five runs in each of his last two starts away from Citizens Bank Park.

The Phils’ bullpen has been downright awful of late. After coughing up Friday’s game in Atlanta, three of their pitchers combined to give up 15 runs in Sunday’s loss to the Braves. Stretching it out a bit longer, the Phils’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA (9.27) in MLB over the last seven days.

Arrieta could very well find himself in a spot where he’s forced to pitch more innings, even if things aren’t going well.

Aside from a complete-game shutout against the lousy Marlins, Patrick Corbin has not performed well at lately. Over his last three starts (12 2/3 innings), the lefty has allowed 22 hits and 20 runs (16 earned) – yikes!

The top six hitters in each team’s lineup have been making solid contact over the last 21 days against the handedness of starting pitcher on the mound tonight. Not to mention, five of the last six games for both teams have gone over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 7 *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (+100) – New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (+106)
NYM: Jacob deGrom – R (3-6, 3.38 ERA/1.13 WHIP)
ATL: Julio Teheran – R (5-4, 2.92 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

There’s owning teams, and then there’s straight up OWNING teams. Julio Teheran does somersaults out of bed on days he knows the Mets are on the schedule. The veteran righty owns a 2.16 ERA/1.04 WHIP against them lifetime. New York’s current roster owns a putrid .203 batting average and .266 on-base percentage against Teheran with a 25.2% K-rate.

Teheran has been immaculate over his last eight starts, allowing one earned run or fewer and no homers in that stretch.

That’s how good Teheran has been against the Mets, that I didn’t lead off this game with reigning Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom. After a rough start to the season, he’s rebounded nicely by allowing two runs or fewer in eight of the last nine starts. deGrom also has solid numbers against tonight’s opponent, with a 1.86 ERA/1.02 WHIP lifetime. The current Braves’ roster owns a .235 batting average, .292 on-base percentage and 29.2% K-rate against him.

All of this is great news for the total going under tonight, but the one thing that could derail this pitcher’s duel is the Mets’ bullpen – they have been downright awful over the last couple of days. However, I find it quite intriguing that New York is favored in this game, considering how well Teheran has pitched against them in the past – not to mention, his current form. I do think that means deGrom ends up having a solid performance, but the game could certainly be lost by the bullpen.

Lastly, there are some great trends in the Braves’ favor tonight – or bad luck for the Mets. The Mets are 1-7 after allowing 10 runs in the previous game, 0-6 when deGrom is on the mound after a loss in the previous game and 4-10 in all games that deGrom starts this season. Yikes!

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 4 – New York Mets: 1 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 (-104) – Milwaukee Brewers (1.5-run line: -102) at San Diego Padres
MIL: Brandon Woodruff – R (8-1, 3.87 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
SD: Logan Allen – L (MLB debut)

Brandon Woodruff has pitched incredibly well this season and the Brewers have won his last nine starts – eight of them coming by two runs or more. Tonight, he’ll face a Padres offense that owns the third-lowest IRT (3.3) on tonight’s slate. Vegas is already telling us that we’re going to see another low-scoring affair, as both teams have seen a decrease in IRTs (Brewers: -0.4, Padres: -0.6) and the game total also went from 8.5 to 7.5. In my opinion, this is all fantastic news for Woodruff in one way or the other.

Logan Allen makes his MLB debut tonight, and he’s more of a needed body, as opposed to someone that deserved a call-up from Triple-A. Allen owned a 4-3 record and 5.15 ERA for Triple-A El Paso, but the Padres’ bullpen was absolutely taxed after a crazy three-game series in Colorado over the weekend.

Luckily for the under, Milwaukee’s bats haven’t been rocking and rolling like they have most of the season. Over the last 21 days, they own a well-below average .315 wOBA against left-handed pitching and did just get shut down by Joey Lucchesi last night.

All in all, we’re looking for a dominant performance from Woodruff once again, with Allen doing just enough to carry us to a low-scoring affair.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 5 – San Diego Padres: 1 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 93-74-4 (55.7%) *

[10:00 p.m. EST] Under 7.5 – Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (6-0, 4.18 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (4-4, 4.45 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The two most-sought-after free agents from this offseason will go head-to-head for the first time with their new ball clubs. Each of these teams will also be looking to get back on the good foot after losing some games recently – the Phils with four straight and the Padres with five in their last seven.

Aaron Nola has been a solid mix of good and lucky with the number of walks he’s allowed, but tonight’s outing should veer more to the side of dominant. The Padres have struggled mightily against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days, with a .294 wOBA, .166 ISO and 30.2% K-rate. Nola has allowed exactly one run in five of his last seven outings, so the Padres could be in for trouble once again.

Eric Lauer will be pitching on his 24th birthday and he’s been fantastic lately, allowing only three earned runs over his last 18 innings. In fact, Lauer’s only bad outing since early April came at Coors Field against the Rockies’ talented lineup. The home/road splits have been much more in his favor at PETCO Park, where Lauer has a 2.67 ERA, as opposed to the 6.84 ERA he’s amassed on the road.

All in all, both offenses haven’t been great over the last 14 days. Perhaps, the Phils get a couple of solo shots out of the yard tonight, but it appears like we’ll have a classic low-scoring game in San Diego.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – San Diego Padres: 1 *

[10:00 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
HOU: Corbin Martin – R (1-1, 5.51 ERA/1.71 WHIP)
SEA: Wade LeBlanc – L (1-1, 6.99 ERA/1.66 WHIP)

The Astros’ offense hasn’t been as dominant without the trio of Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa all on the shelf, but they’ll certainly have a chance to do some major damage tonight.

Wade LeBlanc has gotten beat around in the majority of his starts this season, and that has certainly produced a lot of runs in those outings. In fact, the six outings which LeBlanc has started this season have averaged a game-total of 16 runs. Yikes! Bad for the Mariners, but good for us bettors of the over tonight.

One thing always working against the Mariners is their defense, which leads MLB with 69 errors – 22 more than the second-worst team. Seattle’s offense can add some fuel to the over here as well, as its 106 homers rank second-best in MLB and 41 stolen bases rank third.

Corbin Martin hasn’t been that same dominant pitcher that we all remember from his MLB debut on Mother’s Day. In his most recent outing, the Cubs’ offense lit him up for three solo homers in 3 2/3 innings. Speaking on the Mariners’ power above, they should be able to take advantage of Martin’s recent struggles. Sure, Jay Bruce has moved on to Philly (and he probably won’t be the last player on this team to be traded), but they do have enough guys to fill the power void.

The proof is in the pudding when LeBlanc takes the mound – runs go on the board. Martin should serve up a long ball or two, giving us a nice path to the over tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, May 20

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 71-46-4 (60.7%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: +106) at New York Mets
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (4-1, 2.91 ERA/1.04 WHIP)
NYM: Wilmer Font – R (1-1, 7.08 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

Patrick Corbin has thrown eight quality starts in nine outings this season, three of them coming against the Mets. The lefty has made them look silly all season, mainly in the last two matchups as he totaled 20 strikeouts in 14 innings while only walking two batters. If that wasn’t bad enough, the Mets own a dreadful .197 wOBA, .059 ISO and 32.8% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Not to mention, the Nationals have won five of Corbin’s last six starts. All five of those wins have come by two runs or more.

To say the Mets are struggling would be an understatement, getting shutout twice over the weekend in Miami, and their manager Mickey Callaway is hanging on by a thread. I don’t think there’s any way they could possibly muster up enough strength to get this train back on the track until Callaway is gone.

Wilmer Font will be making his third appearance for the Mets and the last one against these same Nats did not go well. The righty allowed six hits, two walks and five runs over 2 1/3 innings en route to getting the loss. Now that the Nationals’ lineup is mostly back together, look for them to put another world of hurt on Font.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 7 – New York Mets: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (1.5-run line: +114)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (3-4, 4.00 ERA/1.35 WHIP)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (4-3, 2.61 ERA/1.13 WHIP)

Mike Leake has been much better of late, but he does run into a Rangers’ lineup that consistently had his number. The current Texas lineup has a combined .351 batting average and .973 OPS in 173 plate appearances against him. In the last meeting between the teams on April 27, Leake allowed 10 hits and nine runs (five earned) over five innings. The Rangers have also lost five of the last six games that Leake has started.

Aside from Opening Day, Mike Minor has been outstanding at Globe Life Park this season, going 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA in four starts and allowing an opposing batting average of .202. The remodeled lefty had a season-high 13 strikeouts in seven innings against the Mariners back in that same start where Leake got thrashed. Seattle’s current roster also owns a 33% K-rate against Minor.

All in all, I think this is going to be a massive offensive display from the Rangers tonight. Texas has the highest IRT (6.1) on tonight’s slate and the game has a total of 11 – I don’t see the Mariners contributing much to the party. It’s interesting to note that the Rangers have only been favored eight times this season and are 6-2 in those games.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 2 *

[9:45 p.m. EST] Atlanta Braves (moneyline: -138) at San Francisco Giants
ATL: Mike Soroka – R (4-1, 0.98 ERA/1.01 WHIP)
SF: Andrew Suarez – L (season debut)

Mike Soroka has been outstanding this season, allowing one earned run or fewer in all six of his starts. Not to mention, the young righty still hasn’t allowed a homer yet in 2019. That’ll play well at Oracle Park, which is a notorious pitcher’s park.

On the other side, Andrew Suarez will be making his season debut, and he gets a very tough matchup against a Braves’ team that ranks sixth in all of baseball with a .341 wOBA and 113 wRC+. Suarez wasn’t doing well in Triple-A, posting a 2-3 record with a 6.33 ERA.

We’re looking at a massive mismatch of starting pitchers and that should give the Braves an early advantage, which they should hold on to.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 6 – San Francisco Giants: 2 *

[10:10 p.m. EST] Under 6.5 (-104) – Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
ARZ: Luke Weaver – R (3-2, 3.16 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
SD: Chris Paddack – R (3-2, 1.99 ERA/0.75 WHIP)

Vegas made quite the statement by putting a 6.5 total on this game, but it does make sense, considering the current form of each offense against right-handed pitching. Both teams have a wOBA under .300, while Diamondbacks have a K-rate of 28% and the Padres at 30.2% against righties over the last 14 days, and that could be why their IRTs both decreased as well – Diamondbacks: -0.3, Padres: -0.2.

Luke Weaver has five quality starts in his last seven outings, one of those coming against these same Padres. Weaver struck out eight batters over 6 1/3 innings but did take the tough loss in a tight 2-1 game — Hopefully, something like we’ll see tonight.

Chris Paddack is coming off his worst start of the season, but it came against a very tough Dodgers’ lineup. He did allow six runs but only three of them were earned. Nonetheless, Paddack has been quite effective, throwing four straight quality starts before that game against the Dodgers.

The young righty doesn’t go too deep into games, but the Padres’ bullpen owns the third-best xFIP (3.71) in all of baseball.

Final Score Prediction: San Diego Padres: 3 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 2 *