Trend Value Score

The trend value score or “Value Score” for short is critical to all our features as it is the basis for how we rate and view picks. It is an open calculation that allows us to grade all types of sports future picks based on our uniform measuring system.

Example
In this value score example, we see a Straight-up or Moneyline pick . If you hover over the value score it will show you the actual number the score represents like this which in this case is +39% value for the Away team to Win outright (Moneyline).

Description
Prerequisite: the information below assumes that you have some knowledge of Picks and Trends and how they relate to one another.

Key

  • High score, greater than 25%
  • Medium-High score, is between 15% and 25%
  • Medium-Low score, is between 15% and 15%
  • Low score, less than -15%

    The basis of our value score is the “Net” or profit/margin which is the amount you would earn if you risked 1 unit on the pick. So, if look back historically at each pick’s trends you will find that certain trends are more profitable over time and those profitable trends you want to highlight on related picks to calculate the value score. So, once the trends are calculated at a maximum of 50 games in the past, we pick the row for that trend with the maximum Net which is what you see here…

    This maximum Net is then summed up across all the trends and divided by 1000 to make the score a small percentage value like 12% or 25% as examples. The formula is loosely categorized by the math below.

    Calculation
    SUM ( MAX ( NET ) [for each Trend] ) [for all Trends] ) / 1000

    Calculation example
    For a given trend, LA Laker +6, see the three example trends below:

  • After Pointspread Loss, Net = 15.2 in last 23 games
  • Against Winning teams, Net = 22.8 in last 39 games
  • As home team, Net = 19.2 in last 41 games
    Total Net = 57.2
    Value Score = 57.2 / 1000 = +5.7%

  • Last updated byPaul