Tag: MLB

MLB “Back from the Break” Betting Value Pick for Thursday, July 11

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 131-110-5 (54.4%) *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Under 10.5 – Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
HOU: Frambler Valdez – L (4.57 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
TEX: Lance Lynn – R (11-4, 3.91 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

Lance Lynn was actually tied for the most wins (11) of any starting pitcher in baseball at the All-Star break with Lucas Giolito of the Chicago White Sox. And that win total isn’t necessarily a product of run support either, as we’re looking at a guy that has allowed three runs or fewer in 14 of his last 17 starts.

It has been quite a resurgent 2019 campaign for Lynn, who has pitched at least six innings in each of his last 13 outings – 11 of those were quality starts (at least six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer allowed).

Lynn is 4-2 in seven lifetime starts against the Astros, with a 2.25 ERA and 1.18 WHIP, while the total has gone under in five of those games.

Frambler Valdez takes the ball for the Astros. After starting the season in the bullpen, his last four outings have come as a starter. Those outings have seen mixed results, but the one constant in the quality starts was that Valdez racked up a total of 15 strikeouts, as opposed to only five in the other two.

Well, strikeouts shouldn’t be a problem for Valdez tonight, as the Rangers struck out at a massive 37.4% clip against left-handed pitching in the 21 days before the All-Star break. In fact, eight hitters in the projected Texas lineup tonight have a K-rate of at least 27% against lefties over that same time frame.

At his best, Valdez has gone six and seven innings in his most effective outings. We’re certainly banking on that tonight, given how poorly the Rangers are making contact against left-handed pitching.

Behind Valdez will be the Houston bullpen, which has the fifth-best ERA (3.88) in all of baseball this season. In general, the Astros have held the Rangers to four runs or fewer in six of the 10 meetings this season.

Seven of Lynn’s last nine starts have produced a single-digit run total, and it’s quite telling that Vegas has adjusted the initial 11.0 total down to 10.5. Perhaps, they got a look at the numbers after releasing the line and thought, “Oh my, this Lynn guy isn’t so bad.”

The SpreadKnowledge system likes the Rangers in this game with Lynn on the mound, so we’ll give them the win in the final prediction. However, the play that really stands out here is the total going under 10.5 runs.

* Final Score Prediction * Texas Rangers: 5 – Houston Astros: 4

MLB All-Star Game Betting Value Picks for July 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 130-110-5 (54.2%) *

Betting the MLB All-Star Game

* Intro

Welcome back to the 90th installment of the Mid-Summer Classic. The American League does have a narrow 44-43-2 advantage lifetime over the National League in this exhibition game, and also the tight run-total advantage at 369-367. However, the AL has taken 24 of the last 31, with one tie mixed in.

While the game doesn’t decide home-field advantage to the winning league for the World Series, it’s still the only All-Star Game of any professional sport that actually puts the effort in. As a fun antidote to this year’s game, if it goes to extra innings, a runner will be put on second base in order to expedite the scoring chances late.

* Starting Pitching

Justin Verlander has given up the most homers (26) in MLB this season, but he is allowing an 0.81 WHIP, which is best in the league. Verlander has a lot to prove tonight, considering he lashed out at MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred about the baseballs being juiced, thus leading to more homers than ever in the sport. Look for him to have a solid two-inning performance, and a puffed chest to boot.

On the other side, Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the ball for the NL, and he’s been nothing short of spectacular this season, posting an MLB-best 1.73 ERA through 17 starts. What’s interesting here is that Ryu won’t have the benefit of pitching at home, where he’s gone 7-0 with a 0.85 ERA this season. Granted, his numbers are still solid on the road (3-2, 2.98 ERA), but Ryu has been tagged for quite a few hits in some of his starts away from Dodger Stadium. Look for that loaded AL lineup to get a good piece of him early on in this one.

* Bullpens

Looking at the two bullpens for each side, this is where the AL has a slight advantage. Guys like Jose Berrios, Gerrit Cole and Lucas Giolito could have potentially started this game, while Aroldis Chapman, Brad Hand and Ryan Pressly have all had dominant shut-down stuff this season. I’m looking for them to be magnificent behind Verlander in this one.

It’s not like the NL has a bunch of misfits pitching, though. After all, this is the All-Star Game. Walker Buehler, Luis Castillo and Jacob deGrom all have some of the best stuff in the game, but they do have guys like Sandy Alcantara, Sonny Gray and Brandon Woodruff mixed in there and the situation could prove to be too big for them. If the AL has a big inning tonight, it’ll likely come against one of those three.

* Lineups/Bench

When we look at the hitting on both sides, it’s hard to find faults on either. Once again, this is the All-Star Game, so if you’re looking for a soft spot – good luck. In years previous, it felt like the pitching has always been the deciding factor, and that should be the case once again.

It is worth noting, though, that Mike Trout was tied for the league lead in homers (6) over the last seven days heading into the All-Star break.  Cody Bellinger had three, which is the most for any NL hitter over that span.

The AL lineup will have a solid all-right-handed lineup for the first seven hitters against Ryu, who has been more vulnerable against that side. On the other side, Verlander will get to face two right-handed bats out of the AL’s first five hitters.

* Betting the Game

In terms of placing a wager, the SpreadKnowledge system sees no other way than to go with the AL and the over in this one. Given the history of their dominance, in addition to having the home-field advantage in this game, it makes the AL the favorite and we’re getting nice odds (according to FanDuel Sportsbook), risking -112 on the moneyline.

We’ll give it a final score of 8-3 in favor of the AL. Taking it a step further, our prediction for MVP is Mike Trout – he does have the best odds of any player on the board at +950.

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, July 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 130-111-5 (53.8%) *

[1:10 p.m.] New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
NYY: James Paxton – L (5-3, 4.09 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
TB: Charlie Morton – R (9-2, 2.36 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

Vegas already set this one up for a pitcher’s duel, decreasing the game total from 8.5 to 7.5, and both sides got massive IRT decreases as well — Yankees: -0.6, Rays: -0.4.

James Paxton will match up well against a Rays’ team that has the second-highest K-rate against left-handed pitching this season. Even against decent competition, Paxton has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.

Charlie Morton has been straight up filthy, allowing one run or fewer in four of his last six starts. The Yanks do have some hitters like Breyvic Valera and Austine Romine which will downgrade their lineup a bit, but Morton’s stuff is among the best in MLB.

Look for these two guys to duel it out against each other and give their respective bullpens a little more rest heading into the All-Star break.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

[1:10 p.m. EST] Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (7-2, 3.89 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (8-5, 4.42 ERA/1.25 WHIP)

These two just dueled it out last week before the bullpens ruined everything. In fact, Vegas thinks we’ll be seeing yet another duel, decreasing the game total from 8.5 to 8.0, with the Phils IRT decreasing -0.3 and the Mets at -0.2.

Aaron Nola is 6-1 with a 3.48 ERA/1.13 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Mets. He has just been flat out amazing over the last three starts, allowing only two runs (one earned) over the last 23 innings.

Zach Wheeler has handled the Phillies well over the course of his career, going 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA/1.07 WHIP against them in 13 career starts. It looks like the consistency is finally starting to round back to form at the right time, allowing only four runs over the 19 1/3 innings.

The two bullpens looked great last night, and the Phils’ has been even more impressive in this whole series. Ultimately, I feel like that gives them the edge today, but the under is where the money is at.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – New York Mets: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, July 4 – Happy Independence Day!

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 129-110-5 (53.8%) *

[5:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-110) – New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (7-4, 5.23 ERA/1.28 WHIP)
TB: Yonny Chirinos – R (7-4, 3.10 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

J.A. Happ will look to keep his perfect 3-0 road record intact as the Yankees travel to Tropicana Field. For an extreme fly-ball pitcher like Happ, getting himself out of Yankee Stadium is something he’ll gladly welcome.

Since coming to New York, Happ is 2-0 against Tampa Bay while allowing only two runs in 12 total innings. The Rays’ offense hasn’t been comfortable against left-handed pitching, owning the second-worst K-rate (27%) in all of MLB in that split. In addition, their numbers against lefties aren’t great over the last 21 days either, with .281 wOBA and .130 ISO marks.

If all of that wasn’t enough, the Yankees’ bullpen will be right there behind Happ. Their numbers look terrible over the last week because of that trip to London, but we have to remember that the dimensions of that field were an absolute joke.

In nine meetings between the two teams this season, the Yankees have held the Rays to three runs or fewer seven times.

Yonny Chirinos has done a great job of becoming a traditional starter this season. In 17 of his appearances, Chirinos has only allowed more than three runs twice. Against the Yanks this season, the righty has held them to three runs over 10 2/3 total innings.

All in all, the total going under in this game has the highest rating of any on today’s schedule. I’ll give the Yanks the edge in this one too, considering their 7-2 mark against the Rays this season.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

[9:10 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (ML: -222) 
SD: Dinelson Lamet – R (season debut)
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (9-2, 1.83 ERA/0.90 WHIP)

We can’t take too much out of Hyun-Jin Ryu’s last outing, where he allowed seven runs in four innings, at Coors Field. After all, that has been a place of horrors for him over the years, and it was the first time he allowed more than two runs in an outing all season.

Ryu has had plenty of success against the Padres, going 7-1 in 10 career starts, with a 2.26 ERA/1.07 WHIP. Not to mention, Ryu has been flat-out unhittable at home this season, going 6-0 with a 0.94 ERA and the Dodgers are a whopping 16-2 in games at Dodger Stadium in games that he started.

On the other side, Dinelson Lamet will be making his first start in 15 months after recovering from Tommy John surgery. While he might be someone to look out for down the road, all of that time off is not going to help him in this matchup against the Dodgers. It’s a brutal matchup to be thrown back into the mix, considering the Dodgers are 36-9 at home this season.

The Dodgers are tied with the game above for the highest trend rating of the day in our system. Take them with confidence, knowing Ryu is money at home.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 5 – San Diego Padres: 1

MLB Betting Value Picks for Tuesday, July 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 128-110-4 (53.8%) *

[7:20 p.m. EST] Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (6-2, 4.22 ERA/1.36 WHIP)
ATL: Dallas Keuchel – L (1-1, 5.06 ERA/1.78 WHIP)

Vegas already made its statement on this game by giving the Phillies a massive 0.5 IRT increase. Not to mention, the Braves had the second-largest moneyline decrease of the day – not a good sign of things to come.

Aaron Nola has always done well against the Braves, and he comes into tonight’s matchup in peak form. The All-Star righty is 8-3 lifetime against Atlanta with a 2.46 ERA/1.07 WHIP in 14 starts. Nola has allowed only run and an 0.60 WHIP over his last 15 innings while striking out 20 hitters.

Dallas Keuchel takes the mound for the Braves and his return to baseball hasn’t exactly been great. In each of his two starts, Keuchel has allowed eight hits and three earned runs. Not to mention, Philly advanced metrics against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days is something we want a part of. The Phils have a massive .361 wOBA and .226 ISO against lefties in that span of time.

Philly is averaging just under 7.5 runs per game over their last seven, so having that recency bias and Nola with a great history against the Braves makes this bet all the sweeter.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 5 – Atlanta Braves: 2

[10:10 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals at Seattle Mariners
STL: Jack Flaherty – R (4-5, 4.75 ERA/1.23 WHIP)
SEA: Matt Carasiti – R (0-0, 0.00 ERA/1.33 WHIP)

The top rating from the SK Trend Confidence comes to us from the Great Northwest. The over in tonight’s game is looking like a firm position, given how bad the pitching for Seattle has been. Matt Carasiti has been fine in limited work, but he’ll be handing the game off to Wade LeBlanc afterward — and that’s the best possible thing we’re looking for.

For whatever reason, the Cardinals just hit right-handed pitching much better — that’s just how it is. They’ll be able to take advantage of that later in the game, but LeBlanc’s basic style will suit them well early on.

I really like the future that Jack Flaherty has ahead of him, but things just haven’t been working out early on this season. In fact, things have been much worse on the road, where he owns a massive 6.68 ERA. Flaherty is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing nine hits (three homers and seven runs over 4 2/3 innings.

* Final Score Prediction * St. Louis Cardinals: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 5

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, July 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 127-109-4 (53.8%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 10 (-104) –  Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (2-2, 2.94 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
CIN: Tyler Mahle – R (2-8, 4.35 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

We’re only going to see Adrian Houser for a few innings, but he should get us well on our way to hitting the under tonight. Despite a rough outing in his last appearance, Houser has allowed one run or fewer in 14 of his 17 appearances this season.

Coming behind Houser is the Milwaukee bullpen, which has the fifth-best ERA (3.08) over the last 14 days. In any event, we’re probably going to see Josh Hader enter the game at some point. That’s two innings of pure shut-down baseball. The electric lefty has notched 77 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings this season.

The stat sheet for Tyler Mahle hasn’t necessarily been pristine, but it’s not a total disaster either. Mahle has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts. Not to mention, the Brewers’ offense hasn’t been at its best of late, scoring three runs or fewer in five of their last six games and the Reds have one run or fewer in three of the last five games.

Brewers’ games have gone under the total in five straight, while Reds’ games have done the same in 18 of their last 24. Five of the nine Brewers-Reds’ matchups have also gone under the total this season. This is THE TOP TREND is the SK Trend Confidence rating system tonight, folks! Let’s have at it!

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 5 – Cincinnati Reds: 3

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (1.5-run line: -144)
BAL: Thomas Darwin Eshelman – R (MLB debut)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-1, 2.76 ERA/1.14 WHIP)

OK, time to pick on the Orioles again. And this is the perfect time to do so, given that Tampa Bay will be rolling out one of its patented bullpen-games. I always love taking the Rays in these situations because they play the individual matchups so well and truly make it work to their benefit.

Even better for the Rays is that they’ll be facing the worst team in MLB. The Orioles have lost 14 of the last 17 games, and their bullpen is absolutely dreadful. Baltimore’s pen ranks dead last (even worse than the Mets) in every single metric that is tabulated.

The Rays are 4-2 against the Orioles this season and will likely add on to that win total tonight. Tampa Bay’s -280 moneyline is its highest total of the season, thus increasing the likelihood that the home team will take care of business this evening.

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 2

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 30

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 126-108-4 (53.8%) *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -190) at Detroit Tigers
WSH: Max Scherzer – R (7-5, 2.52 ERA/
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-5, 5.95 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

Mad Max is back in the D! It was one of the worst moves in the history of the franchise, letting Max Scherzer out of town, but he’s back to claim what’s rightfully is – respect.

And apparently, breaking his nose was just the thing he needed. Since that tragic gaff, Scherzer has held the opposition to one run over 15 innings while striking out 20 batters. The multi-colored-orbital man has now struck out at least nine batters in each of his last five outings, including double-digits in four of those starts.

Today, Scherzer will go toe-to-toe with Jordan Zimmermann. This is a mismatch made in heaven if you’re betting on the Nationals, which is what I plan on doing here – heavily. Looking at Zimmermann’s stat line, it really doesn’t do justice, and it seems like some time on the IL didn’t do anything to help matters. Since then, Zimmermann has allowed 14 hits and six runs over his last nine innings. In general, the Tigers have lost the last six games that Zimmermann started, five of them coming by two runs or more.

The recent Statcast data against right-handed pitching between the teams is noticeably different. Over the last 21 days, the Nationals have a massive .370 wOBA and .249 ISO while the Tigers are at the opposite end of the spectrum with a .304 wOBA, .158 ISO and 26.3% K-rate.

All in all, we’re not trying to kid anyone here. Max is going to mow these poor Tigers’ hitters with relative ease.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 7 – Detroit Tigers: 1

[1:10 p.m. EST] Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (ML: -200)
TEX: Jesse Chavez – R (3-2, 2.79 ERA/
TB: Blake Snell – L (4-7, 5.01 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

It’s no secret that Blake Snell has struggled this season, but this a prime opportunity for him to get back on the good foot. The Rangers have struggled mightily against left-handed pitching with a massive 32.6% K-rate over the last 21 days. As we all know, Snell is one of the best in the business at racking them up.

The Rangers will throw a bullpen-game at the Rays today, and it’s not like that’s going to help their case. Over the last 14 days, the Texas bullpen owns a zaftig 4.91 ERA. The road has not been kind to the Rangers this season, and even though their recent success looks good, this is simply a different team away from Globe Life Park.

Let’s roll with the Rays in confidence, and know that Snell is going to dominate this afternoon!

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 6 – Texas Rangers: 2 

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, June 28

!!! ATTENTION READERS !!! 

Just wanted to give everyone a heads up, but there won’t be any written articles tomorrow (6/29), next Friday (7/5) and next Saturday (7/6) due to prior commitments. Sorry for the inconvenience. All computer-generated picks will still be calculated and the site will be up and running on those days as usual.

 

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 125-106-4 (54%) *


[8:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-102) – Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
PIT: Chris Archer – R (3-6, 5.56 ERA/1.48 WHIP)
MIL: Jhoulys Chacin – R (3-8, 5.88 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

The Brewers’ offense surprisingly sputtered in their recent three-game series against the Mariners, but just watching yesterday’s game it was evident that bad luck played a part. Numerous hard-hit balls managed to find leather or landed a few steps from the wall.

Luckily, they’ll be facing a pitcher in Chris Archer who hasn’t been at his best. In fact, the right has allowed a homer in 11 of his 13 starts this season and owns a massive 8.42 ERA on the road. Since coming to Pittsburgh, Archer has allowed at least four runs and two homers in each of his three starts against Milwaukee.

On the other side, Jhoulys Chacin has been getting rocked all season. His last outing against the Pirates (on May 31) was downright brutal, as the righty allowed six hits/four walks and seven runs over 2 2/3 innings.

Good news for the Pirates – and the over – is that Brewers’ reliever Josh Hader pitched the final two innings yesterday to get the save. After pitching two innings the previous day, Hader has not entered the next day’s game once in his career.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a B+ grade on the over in this game, given how many runs these two teams have put up against each other this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Milwaukee Brewers: 8 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 7

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-110) – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -134) at Colorado Rockies
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (9-1, 1.27 ERA/0.84 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela – R (6-5, 4.91 ERA/1.57 WHIP)

In last night’s 12-8 slugfest, we saw exactly how helpful these hot temperatures at Coors Field are for the hitters. We’ve got the same conditions for tonight’s game, and that’s why Vegas has dramatically increased the total from 11.0 to 12.5, with the Dodgers (+0.9) and Rockies (+0.7) getting massive IRT increases.

There’s more reason to believe the Dodgers will add more runs to the game total. After all, Antonio Senzatela has been beaten over the head this season, especially at Coors field with a 6.21 ERA/1.59 WHIP. Senzatela did pitch well against the Dodgers last week, but we’ve seen plenty of teams capitalize offensively facing the same pitcher twice in a span of less than a week.

Hyun-Jin Ryu also faced the Rockies in his last start, allowing three runs (one earned) over six innings. However, Ryu has a 1-4 record over his last six start against Colorado, and it’s been even worse at Coors Field. In his last two starts there, the lefty has allowed 15 hits/six walks and 15 runs (10 earned) over six innings.

Just as the case was last night, the two bullpens will certainly be a factor and ultimately decide this one. In the month of June, the Dodgers’ bullpen has the second-best ERA (2.84) while the Rockies own the seventh-worst (5.46).

The SK Trend Confidence rating is strong on the Dodgers tonight in every fashion. After last night’s win, the Dodgers remain a perfect 7-0 against the Rockies this season.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 12 – Colorado Rockies: 10

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 9 (-112) – St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
STL: Michael Wacha – R (5-3, 5.59 ERA/1.67 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (5-7, 4.32 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

There has only been a total of 9.0 at Petco Park twice this season, which is quite telling for a ballpark that doesn’t have the stigma of being a hitter’s park. For what it’s worth, both times the total finished on or above the mark. Vegas adjusted the total from 8.5 to 9.0 and both teams obviously got an IRT increase as well – Cardinals: +0.2, Padres: +0.3.

A good reason for the increased total is the Padres’ recent tear of offense, with 28 runs over the last three games. In the month of June, Padres’ games have gone over the total 15 times in 23 games with two pushes mixed in there.

Michael Wacha has been hit or miss lately, allowing six runs or more in three of his last six starts. The Padres will run a mostly right-handed lineup out at Wacha tonight, and he’s been getting crushed from that side of the plate. Opposing righties are walloping him for .338 batting average, .406 on-base percentage and 1.025 OPS this season. Of the 14 homers Wacha has allowed, 12 of them have come from righties.

While the Cardinals haven’t necessarily clobbered the ball of late, facing the Padres can certainly do them some good. Eric Lauer will have to deal with a nearly all right-handed lineup to deal with, including Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna, who are both 4-for-5 against him lifetime – Goldy has two homers while Ozuna has one.

If all of that wasn’t enough, San Diego’s bullpen has the third-worst bullpen ERA (6.31) in the month of June – only the Mets and Orioles have done worse.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 4

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, June 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 124-106-4 (54%) *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals (1.5-run line: -120) at Miami Marlins
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (8-4, 3.79 ERA/1.08 WHIP)
MIA: Sandy Alcantara – R (4-6, 3.51 ERA/1.41 WHIP)

Stephen Strasburg has handled the Marlins with relative ease over the course of his career, going 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA/1.09 WHIP in 32 career starts – the Nationals are 23-9 in those games. This year’s version of the Marlins is a lot worse, especially of late, with a .269 wOBA and .099 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

The road has been much more kind to Strasburg this season, as his 2.92 ERA is much better there than at Nationals Park, where it sits at 4.71. In fact, the Nationals are a whopping 25-8 in road games which Strasburg has started since the beginning of last season.

Sandy Alcantara has had a rough go of it against the Nationals over his career, losing all three of his starts and accumulating a 9.00 ERA/2.46 WHIP. The top four hitters in Washington’s lineup (Turner, Eaton, Rendon, Soto) have particularly given Alcantara trouble, combining to go 15-for-32 against him.

Recently, Alcantara has been allowing loads of baserunners – 22 of them in his last 13 2/3 innings of work. Unfortunately, the Phillies and Pirates couldn’t take advantage in those games, but we’ll give the Nationals the benefit of the doubt tonight.

The SK Trend Confidence rating is high on the Nationals on the 1.5-run line, for all of the reasons listed above.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 6 – Miami Marlins: 1

[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 12 (-120) – Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -134) at Colorado Rockies
LAD: Walker Buehler – R (8-1, 2.96 ERA/0.88 WHIP)
COL: Peter Lambert – R (2-0, 5.85 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

Walker Buehler has been fantastic in the month of June with a 3-0 record, 0.87 ERA/0.45 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in 31 innings of work. His last outing came against these same Rockies, going the distance allowing two runs (on two solo homers) while striking out 16.

Buehler has made eight career starts against the Rockies and gone 3-1 with a 2.09 ERA/0.81 WHIP. In his last four starts against Colorado, the righty has allowed 10 hits/six walks and only five runs (three earned) in a total 26 2/3 innings.

The Rockies’ offense hasn’t played at Coors Field since Trevor Story went down with the thumb injury, but they have an average of only 3.6 runs per game in the seven afterward. Not to mention, Colorado owns an anemic .274 xwOBA against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, thus alluding to the lack of quality contact.

After two solid outings to begin his career, Peter Lambert has now coughed up 16 hits and 11 runs over his last eight innings of work. Lambert has been getting hit harder by left-handed bats and four of the first five hitters in the Dodgers’ lineup are projected to be from that side.

Lastly, the difference between these two bullpens over the last 14 days is quite significant. Over that span, the Rockies’ pen owns the fourth-worst ERA (6.62) while the Dodgers’ has the fifth-best (3.00).

The SK Trend Confidence rating has strong grades on the total going under and the Dodgers in both fashions, moneyline and 1.5-run line. Los Angeles is a perfect 6-0 against Colorado going into tonight’s matchup.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 8 – Colorado Rockies: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Wednesday, June 26

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 122-105-4 (53.7%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-116) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (ML: -155)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-3, 3.75 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
PHI: Nick Pivetta – R (4-2, 5.54 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

We’ve been on the right side of this total in the first two games of the Phils-Mets series, so let’s keep the train moving. The Phils already owned the highest IRT (5.6) on the night slate and that has now been boosted by slate-high +0.6 increase. Good things are coming for Philly tonight and the visitors should be able to tack enough runs on to have the total go over.

Jason Vargas takes the mound for the Mets and he’ll be facing a Phils’ offense that is absolutely locked in at the plate in the first two games of this series. For all the struggles Philly had recently, their .418 wOBA and .288 ISO against left-handed pitching are absolutely magnificent. Vargas hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in each of his last two starts and is averaging just under five innings per start this season.

We should see plenty of the Mets bullpen, and the 20 runs scored by Philly in the first two games of this series have shined an even brighter light on how bad they’ve been. Look for more of the same tonight.

Nick Pivetta has struggled quite a bit over his last two starts, allowing 15 hits/five walks, 10 runs and five homers in 12 innings of work. Despite coughing up numerous runs, the Mets have always been able to them on the board at Citizens Bank Park. Look for the right-handed bats to do most of the damage against Pivetta, as they have a .337 batting average and 1.000 OPS in 102 plate appearances against him this season.

Philly’s bullpen was solid last night, but they have been a shaky unit overall this season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Mets get a couple of extra runs against them either.

All in all, we should see plenty of runs for the third-consecutive night – and most of them coming from the Philly side.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – New York Mets: 6

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-104) – Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers
TEX: Mike Minor – L (7-4, 2.52 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
DET: Matthew Boyd – L (5-5, 3.61 ERA/1.11 WHIP)

We’ll have dueling lefties at Comerica Park tonight as two of the more underrated pitchers in baseball will square off. Vegas adjusted the total down from 9.0 to 8.5 and the IRTs dipped for both teams: Rangers: -0.5, Tigers: -0.1.

Mike Minor has allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last 11 starts – he’s allowed two runs or fewer eight times, one run or fewer six times and no runs in two of those outings. So far in the month of June, Minor has a 2-0 record and 1.93 ERA over four starts.

The Tigers’ numbers are slightly below average against lefties over the last 21 days with a .325 wOBA, and I see them having an even tougher time against Minor.

On the other side, Matt Boyd will look to get back on track after a few mediocre/rough outings against quality opponents in three of his last four. The caveat here is the Rangers’ woeful .260 wOBA, .098 ISO and 30.3% K-rate against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. In the midst of Boyd’s struggles, he’s still striking out plenty of hitters – 30 Ks over the last 22 innings. Not to mention, the current Rangers’ roster owns a .263 on-base percentage in 78 career plate appearances against Boyd.

The SK Trend Confidence rating has B+ grades for the Rangers and total under tonight, which are some of the highest on the slate.

* Final Score Prediction * Texas Rangers: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 2