Tag: New York Yankees

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Monday, August 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 203-141-9 (59.1%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 39-9-3 record over the last 51 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!
[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 – Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
BAL: Ty Blach – L (0-0, 14.21 ERA/2.84 WHIP)
NYY: Chad Green – R (2-3, 4.82 ERA/1.44 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has lots of confidence on the total in the Orioles-Yankees game going over tonight. And how could it not, when 13 of the 16 matchups have done just that this season.

Yankees’ color commentator/former outfielder Paul O’Neill said it on the postgame show, after their 8-5 victory in Game 1 of the doubleheader this afternoon, but this is just a perfect matchup. Orioles pitchers throw baseballs and Yankees’ hitters bop them over the outfield wall.

Things won’t be getting any better as Baltimore brought Ty Blach aboard by way of San Francisco. Blach has had brief moments of success, but tonight’s matchup against the Yankees will not be one of them. The Bronx Bombers are destroying left-handed pitching over the last 21 days to the tune of a .459 weighted on-base average and .337 ISO (power metric).

The most important piece to this puzzle, though, is the Orioles bullpen which already pitched some innings this afternoon. There’s just not a lot of upside to the team that owns MLB’s worst bullpen ERA at 6.30 this season.

Chad Green will be the opener for the Yankees, but it’s going to be a bullpen day after that. New York really doesn’t have a lot of quality arms available for this game, as it’ll like be Nestor Cores Jr., Brady Lail, Joe Mantiply and Chance Adams doing yeoman’s work.

We talk about this a lot, but for as bad as the Orioles are as a team, they definitely play some exciting ball on the offensive end. Look for them to tack on plenty of runs against some of the Yankees subpar bullpen pitching as well.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 6

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, August 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 182-136-8 (57.4%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (7-4, 3.86 ERA/1.25 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (8-6, 5.19 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Bronx, where the Yankees will host the Red Sox. We like the total going over 9.5 runs, with plenty of reasons to think so.

David Price finally got his first win ever at Yankee Stadium earlier this season, but this place has been a house of horrors for him since joining the Red Sox. Price’s 1-6 record and 8.59 ERA/1.96 WHIP in seven starts there paints a nasty image, and his recent performances haven’t been much better. Over his last three starts (@BAL, @TB, vs. TB), Price has allowed 21 hits (5 HR) and 13 runs over a span of 14 1/3 innings.

J.A. Happ may have good numbers against these Red Sox hitters, but he’ll be going against a desperate team looking to avoid a four-game sweep. We fully expect the likes of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts to get it popping on offense, whether Boston wins or loses this game. We saw this scenario play out the opposite way last weekend when the Red Sox took the first three games before the Yankees put a beatdown on Chris Sale… again.

Happ has been getting hit hard over his last three starts (vs. COL, @ MIN, vs. ARZ), allowing 22 base-knocks (4 HR) and 11 runs over his last 14 1/3 innings.

It’s worth noting that both teams are absolutely crushing left-handed pitching over the last 21 days:

BOS: .374 weighted on-base average, .295 ISO
NYY: .355 weighted on-base average, .241 ISO

All in all, we’ve got a history of one pitcher struggling mightily in this ballpark and one desperate team looking to make some noise on offense. It’s a beautiful combination of riches that will lead to the total going over.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 8 – New York Yankees: 6

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, July 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 161-131-7 (55.1%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 10 – New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
NYY: Domingo German – R (12-2, 4.03 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
BOS: Chris Sale – L (5-9, 4.00 ERA/1.08 WHIP)

It’s a special treat for the SpreadKnowledge supporters, as tonight’s free pick comes to us from Sunday Night Baseball. We’ve seen these two teams slug it out against one another plenty of times lately, but this game is going to be quite different with two talented pitchers on the mound.

Vegas has put its stamp on the game by dropping the game total from 10.5 to 10.0, with both teams – Yankees: -0.4, Red Sox: -0.2 – having decreased IRTs (implied run totals) as well.

The Red Sox will be looking to complete the four-game sweep of the Yankees, and their opportunity is as good as any with Chris Sale on the mound. While it was a tough start to the season for the lanky lefty, he has been virtually unhittable over these last two starts, allowing only six hits and two runs over a span of 12 innings while striking out 22 batters.

While Sale hasn’t been great against the Yankees this season, he should have a much easier time tonight with Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton and Brett Gardner on the injured list – DJ LeMahieu could be out as well. It’s always an easy cop-out to say anyone “is due,” but with the Red Sox closing in on a four-game sweep and getting themselves back into the thick of the playoff picture, I’d expect Sale to be on top of his game.

Domingo German will be tasked with shutting down the hottest offense in baseball this week, and while I don’t think he can do it fully, he can minimize the damage. One constant from German is his ability to bounce back from a bad outing, and the Yankees will certainly need it, considering how bad their bullpen needs a break.

New York’s starting pitching has been getting absolutely teed off on over the last few games. That motivation of German correcting his own wrongs and giving the bullpen a breather could prove to be beneficial.

All in all, though, there’s too much firepower running hot in this Red Sox lineup and that’ll ultimately give them the edge at some point in this game. Look for Sale to shut down the Yanks, and lead us right into the total going under.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 6 – New York Yankees: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day — Saturday, July 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 160-129-7 (55.4%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[4:07 p.m. EST] Over 12 – New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
NYY: CC Sabathia – L (5-5, 5.40 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (12-4, 4.10 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

Vegas has already put its stamp on this game by raising the total from 11.0 to 12.0, with both teams – Red Sox: +0.7, Yankees: +0.3 – getting significant IRT (implied run total) increases.

The Red Sox (611) and Yankees (596) are actually the two highest-scoring teams in MLB this season, and it’s no surprise they’ve been most of this mashing against each other. In the last five meetings between the teams, they’ve combined for totals of 13, 30, 20, 22 and 15.

It looks like that old age is finally starting to catch up to CC Sabathia, and that regression has reared its head in an ugly way. The veteran lefty has now allowed seven homers over his last 17 innings of work while allowing a total of 13 runs (12 ER) over that span.

Also looking grim for Sabathia is the current state of this Red Sox offense, which owns a .377 weighted on-base average and .291 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Good luck with all that, CC.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a fine pitcher, but there are more than enough capable Yankees bats that can make life difficult on him today. New York, like Boston, is hitting left-handed pitching well over the last 21 days, as evidenced by its .337 weighted on-base average and .247 ISO. E-Rod had the benefit of facing a couple of lesser teams during his recent run of good outings, but today will certainly have more difficulty attached to it.

All in all, we’re looking for the Red Sox offense to do some serious damage once again. 10 of the last 14 Red Sox games have gone over the total, while the last eight Yankees games have seen one of the teams score eight runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 10 – New York Yankees: 6

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, July 19

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 146-119-6 (55.1%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 – Colorado Rockies at New York Yankees
COL: Kyle Freeland – L (2-6, 7.39 ERA/1.61 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (7-5, 4.93 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

The Yankees’ 7.0 IRT (implied run total) is tops on tonight’s slate, and both teams were actually given a +0.3 increase, which usually means good things for the offense. Not to mention, the humid temperatures in New York tonight will give it a feel of 100 degrees – then again, it really will be hot. These hot temperatures are excellent for ball flight, and we should definitely see plenty of homers in this game.

Kyle Freeland is having a disastrous 2019 and things have gotten progressively worse as the season has gone along. The lefty has allowed at least five runs in six of his last eight starts, including each of the last three.

In the series prior to this one, the Yankees had battled hard with a tough Rays team. Now, facing the Rockies, things should open up a lot more in terms of the scoring. After all, Colorado has allowed at least eight runs in five of its last six games.

J.A. Happ has been much worse at home this season, posting a 5.98 ERA and opposing batting average of .294 in 10 starts. In comparison, the lefty has a 3.77 ERA and opposing batting average of .224 on the road. Part of the reason for this problem is that Happ is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and that certainly doesn’t play well in such a small ballpark like Yankee Stadium – especially with the weather conditions we’ll see tonight.

While the Rockies were stymied by Giants pitching before heading to New York, it should do them some good to get out on the road. Typically, when teams are in a big funk, it’s always good to get a change of scenery to shake things up. Look for some of these big boppers like Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story to have a big night in The Bronx.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 6

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 10 – Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers
TOR: Marcus Stroman – R (5-10, 3.25 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-6, 7.01 ERA/1.59 WHIP)

Marcus Stroman doesn’t like Canada. OK, maybe that’s a little strong, but his 2.98 ERA on the road this season certainly paints a nice picture for the Blue Jays. Not to mention, he did skill the Tigers for seven innings of shutout ball while allowing only two hits earlier this season. Overall, the current Detroit roster is hitting a combined .140 with a .222 on-base percentage in 63 career plate appearances against Stroman.

The Tigers’ offense ranks dead-last in MLB for weighted on-base average (.284) against right-handed pitching this season. Not to mention, they have only scored five runs over the last three games. We can add almost any stat in the book here to show how bad Detroit has been offensively, but it has gone through enough woes this season already.

Jordan Zimmermann has certainly struggled this season, but his best performance of the season did come against the Blue Jays. The veteran righty allowed one hit, no walks and no runs over seven innings back on March 28. Given Zimmermann’s struggles of late, I’m not expecting a performance like that one, but one that keeps the total down on this game.

The Blue Jays have played a very difficult schedule since the All-Star break, with road matchups against the Yankees and Red Sox, but have certainly held their own. Now that they get to play a lesser opponent like the Tigers, they should have a much easier time and get the win in the process.

According to the SpreadKnowledge system, the total going under is our strongest play on the entire slate. After all, all four of the meetings between the teams earlier this season saw the total go under. We’ve also got plenty of love for the Blue Jays with Stroman in a road start.

* Final Score Prediction * Toronto Blue Jays: 6 – Detroit Tigers: 1

[10:10 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
LAA: Jaime Barria – R (3-2, 5.22 ERA/1.40 WHIP)
SEA: Mike Leake – R (7-8, 4.60 ERA/1.31 WHIP)

There are certain matchups you see sometimes that make you go “Oh… my… goodness!!!” The Angels facing Mike Leake is certainly one of them, and that’s part of the reason the SpreadKnowledge system has the total going over as one of our strongest plays on the night.

Nine of the 14 meetings between the two teams this season have done just that.

The current Angels roster is hitting a combined .368 off Leake with a .413 on-base percentage and 1.019 OPS in 281 plate appearances. In three starts against Los Angeles this season, Leake has allowed 19 hits, 13 runs (10 earned) and six homers over 13 2/3 innings. When the two teams faced last Friday night, the Angels tagged him for eight hits and seven runs (four earned) before the first inning was over.

It’s unclear whether Jaime Barria will start the game or come in shortly after a reliever pitches the first innings. He has started the game in each of his last two outings for the Angels, but it’s a been a mixed bag overall in how the righty has been used this season. Nonetheless, I’ve never been a big fan of Barria, and he’s certainly capable of getting lit up tonight. Barria’s 10.03 ERA and 2.14 WHIP on the road this season do bode well for us getting over the 10-run total tonight, though.

The Mariners have been struggling as a team, but they did have an off-day yesterday and that could give them a nice recharging of the batteries. I don’t think anything will help their pitching at this point, but this offense still has some decent pieces looking to make a name for themselves before the trade deadline.

All in all, the Angels are in a good place offensively and absolutely crushed Mariners pitching in all three games last weekend. Look for them to do more of that against a pitcher they’ve seen well over the course of time. Barria could certainly contribute some effectiveness to the over here as well.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Angels: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 6

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, July 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 139-111-6 (55.6%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (ML: -155)
TB: Blake Snell – L (5-7, 4.70 ERA/1.29 WHIP)
NYY: James Paxton – L (5-4, 4.01 ERA/1.43 WHIP)

Blake Snell has certainly not lived up to the billing in the season after winning the AL Cy Young award. This has been especially true against the Yankees, and this will be the fourth time they’ve seen him in a span of 11 starts. We’ve talked about this more than a few times – the more a team sees a pitcher, the more comfortable they get.

While he does have 26 strikeouts in 17 innings against the Yankees this season, Snell has also allowed 17 hits, nine walks and 10 runs in four starts. Not to mention, the lefty’s 2-4 record and 6.48 ERA on the road has been much worse than his 3-3 record and 3.17 ERA at Tropicana Field. In fact, Snell’s last four road starts have seen him allow a total of 25 hits, eight walks and 20 runs over a span of 14 innings.

James Paxton has a fantastic matchup against a Rays team that owns the third-highest K-rate (26%) and ninth-worst wOBA (.310) against left-handed pitching this season. That was never more evident than in Paxton’s last start when he fanned 11 Rays and only allowed two runs over six innings.

Paxton had an uncharacteristically-bad start against the Blue Jays back on June 26, but four of his last five starts have seen him allow two runs or fewer.

The Yankees are on an excellent run, winning 18 of their last 23 games. They also have a 31-10 record against AL East opponents and a magnificent 15-2 record at home when favored by -125 to -175 on the moneyline this season.

According to our graded picks today, the Yankees (on moneyline or 1.5-run line) have the best trends on today’s entire schedule of games. It also likes the total going under, considering Yankees’ games have done that in seven of the last nine while Rays’ games have done the same in four of the last six.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 5 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

[8:10 p.m. EST] Under 10 – Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers
ATL: Max Fried – L (9-4, 4.29 ERA/1.41 WHIP)
MIL: Adrian Houser – R (4.01 ERA/1.45 WHIP)

With two talented offenses going up against one another, it may seem like a crazy idea to take the under, but that’s exactly what we’re doing here. And Vegas is on our side, decreasing the game total from 10.5 to 10.0, with both sides having their IRT (implied run total) decrease by -0.3 runs, which is tied for highest on today’s entire slate.

When the teams faced off in May, two of the three games went under the total. Also, Braves’ games have gone under the total in 14 of the last 20 while the Brewers offense has just been sputtering since the end of June.

Max Fried wasn’t effective in his last two starts before the All-Star break, but he’s a young kid and the time off could certainly do him some good. The lefty has looked sharp for the most part this season, and his May 17 performance against these same Brewers was nothing short of masterful. In six innings, Fried allowed only two hits and two walks while not coughing up any runs.

The Brewers’ offense hasn’t been great recently against lefties either. Over the last 21 days, Milwaukee owns a very pedestrian .321 wOBA, .145 ISO and 27.2% K-rate against southpaws.

Adrian Houser probably won’t be the reason this game goes under the total, but he can sure help us out a bit. The righty’s splits have been unbelievably tilted, with him posting a 1.88 ERA at Miller Park, compared to a 5.08 ERA on the road. While the Braves have been winning a lot of games, they have scored only four runs or fewer in four of the last six.

Atlanta has been playing a lot of low-scoring games lately, so that plays right into our hands and exactly what Vegas is thinking with the decreased game totals and IRTs.

* Final Score Prediction * Atlanta Braves: 4 – Milwaukee Brewers: 3

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 14 – San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies
SF: Dereck Rodriguez – R (5.27 ERA/1.44 WHIP)
COL: Chi Chi Gonzalez – R (6.00 ERA/1.89 WHIP)

Well, the first game of today’s day-night doubleheader is certainly where we want to be for the second part. At the time of this writing being released, the Giants are up 16-2 in the seventh inning and the Rockies left German Marquez out there to take a good portion of this thumping.

Nonetheless, the Rockies will likely need to use some more arms to close out this game, and they just announced Chi Chi Gonzalez as the starter for tonight’s game. While he doesn’t have a ton of MLB experience, Gonzalez has issued plenty of walks, and putting numerous guys on base for one of the hottest offenses in baseball doesn’t seem to bode well for his chances.

This is a Giants’ offense that has now scored at least seven runs in eight of their last 11 games. It is truly unfathomable to believe that this could ever happen. Especially, with Evan Longoria on the injured list now.

While the Rockies’ offense looks awful in the first game today, you have to expect them to come back with something strong tonight. Prior to today’s debacle, the Rockies’ offense posted a total of 19 runs over the previous two days against a strong batch of Reds’ arms. Rodriguez has been getting ripped with great regularity this season, so guys like Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond and David Dahl can certainly make life difficult on him.

Vegas loves the idea of more runs being scored in the second half of the doubleheader. The game total spiked from 13.5 to 14.0, with both teams’ IRTs (implied run totals) increasing by +0.3. Also, today’s first part of the doubleheader was the third-straight game in which 17 runs (and they’re still going) have been scored at Coors Field.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 10 – San Francisco Giants: 8

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, July 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 130-111-5 (53.8%) *

[1:10 p.m.] New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
NYY: James Paxton – L (5-3, 4.09 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
TB: Charlie Morton – R (9-2, 2.36 ERA/1.03 WHIP)

Vegas already set this one up for a pitcher’s duel, decreasing the game total from 8.5 to 7.5, and both sides got massive IRT decreases as well — Yankees: -0.6, Rays: -0.4.

James Paxton will match up well against a Rays’ team that has the second-highest K-rate against left-handed pitching this season. Even against decent competition, Paxton has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.

Charlie Morton has been straight up filthy, allowing one run or fewer in four of his last six starts. The Yanks do have some hitters like Breyvic Valera and Austine Romine which will downgrade their lineup a bit, but Morton’s stuff is among the best in MLB.

Look for these two guys to duel it out against each other and give their respective bullpens a little more rest heading into the All-Star break.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

[1:10 p.m. EST] Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (7-2, 3.89 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
NYM: Zack Wheeler – R (8-5, 4.42 ERA/1.25 WHIP)

These two just dueled it out last week before the bullpens ruined everything. In fact, Vegas thinks we’ll be seeing yet another duel, decreasing the game total from 8.5 to 8.0, with the Phils IRT decreasing -0.3 and the Mets at -0.2.

Aaron Nola is 6-1 with a 3.48 ERA/1.13 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Mets. He has just been flat out amazing over the last three starts, allowing only two runs (one earned) over the last 23 innings.

Zach Wheeler has handled the Phillies well over the course of his career, going 5-2 with a 2.95 ERA/1.07 WHIP against them in 13 career starts. It looks like the consistency is finally starting to round back to form at the right time, allowing only four runs over the 19 1/3 innings.

The two bullpens looked great last night, and the Phils’ has been even more impressive in this whole series. Ultimately, I feel like that gives them the edge today, but the under is where the money is at.

* Final Score Prediction * Philadelphia Phillies: 4 – New York Mets: 3

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, July 4 – Happy Independence Day!

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 129-110-5 (53.8%) *

[5:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-110) – New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (7-4, 5.23 ERA/1.28 WHIP)
TB: Yonny Chirinos – R (7-4, 3.10 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

J.A. Happ will look to keep his perfect 3-0 road record intact as the Yankees travel to Tropicana Field. For an extreme fly-ball pitcher like Happ, getting himself out of Yankee Stadium is something he’ll gladly welcome.

Since coming to New York, Happ is 2-0 against Tampa Bay while allowing only two runs in 12 total innings. The Rays’ offense hasn’t been comfortable against left-handed pitching, owning the second-worst K-rate (27%) in all of MLB in that split. In addition, their numbers against lefties aren’t great over the last 21 days either, with .281 wOBA and .130 ISO marks.

If all of that wasn’t enough, the Yankees’ bullpen will be right there behind Happ. Their numbers look terrible over the last week because of that trip to London, but we have to remember that the dimensions of that field were an absolute joke.

In nine meetings between the two teams this season, the Yankees have held the Rays to three runs or fewer seven times.

Yonny Chirinos has done a great job of becoming a traditional starter this season. In 17 of his appearances, Chirinos has only allowed more than three runs twice. Against the Yanks this season, the righty has held them to three runs over 10 2/3 total innings.

All in all, the total going under in this game has the highest rating of any on today’s schedule. I’ll give the Yanks the edge in this one too, considering their 7-2 mark against the Rays this season.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 4 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2

[9:10 p.m. EST] San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (ML: -222) 
SD: Dinelson Lamet – R (season debut)
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (9-2, 1.83 ERA/0.90 WHIP)

We can’t take too much out of Hyun-Jin Ryu’s last outing, where he allowed seven runs in four innings, at Coors Field. After all, that has been a place of horrors for him over the years, and it was the first time he allowed more than two runs in an outing all season.

Ryu has had plenty of success against the Padres, going 7-1 in 10 career starts, with a 2.26 ERA/1.07 WHIP. Not to mention, Ryu has been flat-out unhittable at home this season, going 6-0 with a 0.94 ERA and the Dodgers are a whopping 16-2 in games at Dodger Stadium in games that he started.

On the other side, Dinelson Lamet will be making his first start in 15 months after recovering from Tommy John surgery. While he might be someone to look out for down the road, all of that time off is not going to help him in this matchup against the Dodgers. It’s a brutal matchup to be thrown back into the mix, considering the Dodgers are 36-9 at home this season.

The Dodgers are tied with the game above for the highest trend rating of the day in our system. Take them with confidence, knowing Ryu is money at home.

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 5 – San Diego Padres: 1

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 110-91-4 (54.7%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-108) – Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
PHI: Jake Arrieta – R (6-5, 4.31 ERA/1.45 WHIP)
WSH: Patrick Corbin – L (5-5, 4.11 ERA/1.22 WHIP)

Vegas is loving some runs in this game, elevating the IRTs (implied run totals) for each team – Nationals: +0.7, Phillies: +0.3.

Jake Arrieta has not been at his best of late and the control has been a big reason why. The veteran righty has issued nine walks over his last two outings (10 2/3 innings), despite the Phillies getting the win in each of them. The road has not been kind to Arrieta either, as he’s allowed five runs in each of his last two starts away from Citizens Bank Park.

The Phils’ bullpen has been downright awful of late. After coughing up Friday’s game in Atlanta, three of their pitchers combined to give up 15 runs in Sunday’s loss to the Braves. Stretching it out a bit longer, the Phils’ bullpen has the second-worst ERA (9.27) in MLB over the last seven days.

Arrieta could very well find himself in a spot where he’s forced to pitch more innings, even if things aren’t going well.

Aside from a complete-game shutout against the lousy Marlins, Patrick Corbin has been brutal. Over his last three starts (12 2/3 innings), the lefty has allowed 22 hits and 20 runs (16 earned) – yikes!

According to the advanced metric xwOBA, the top six hitters in each team’s lineup have been making solid contact over the last 21 days against the handedness of starting pitcher on the mound tonight. Not to mention, five of the last six games for both teams have gone over the total.

FYI: This game might get off to a late start with a 50% chance of rain in the forecast from 7-9 p.m. I don’t see that causing any issues for either offense.

* Final Score Prediction: Washington Nationals: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 7 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 9 (+100) – Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
TB: Yonny Chirinos – R (7-2, 2.88 ERA/0.93 WHIP)
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka – R (4-5, 3.58 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

While Yankee Stadium isn’t exactly the place we usually look for the total going under, there is a nice matchup of dueling righties on the mound tonight.

The Spread Knowledge Trend Confidence rating has the under on this game as the highest grade of the evening. A big reason is that nine of the last 13 Rays’ games have gone under the total. Also, the total has dropped slightly from 9.5 to 9.0, and the Yankees’ IRT dropped from 5.2 to 4.8 – usually a good sign for the under.

Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t been at his best lately, but he does have fantastic lifetime numbers (0.96 career WHIP) against the Rays. That includes 13 innings of work against them this season, allowing only eight hits and one run while striking out 13 batters. In his last six starts against the Rays, Tanaka has allowed two runs or fewer in five of those – one run or fewer in four of them.

Yonny Chirinos has made a smooth transition to becoming a legit starter, and he’s allowed two runs or fewer in six of the last seven outings – one run or fewer in four of the last six. The electric righty has done a fine job of limiting runs against the Yankees, allowing no runs in two of his four career meetings – the latest coming at Yankee Stadium.

Both of these teams have incredibly-talented bullpens, so I certainly won’t bet against them. Look for this to be a low-scoring game that comes down to the very end.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 4 – New York Yankees: 3 –*

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-112) Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
HOU: Wade Miley – L (6-3, 3.14 ERA/1.16 WHIP)
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (6-1, 2.20 ERA/1.09 WHIP)

It’s a fantastic matchup of arms, as Wade Miley and Luis Castillo go up against one another, in a ballpark that usually makes pitchers weep. The total going under in this game is also one of the highest grades on the SK Trend Confidence rating.

Let’s start with Castillo, who has allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts. It’s quite telling that the Astros are underdogs, given that they’re 1-4 when having that label this season. Obviously, Castillo and his dominance play a big part in tonight’s line, but Houston is also coming off a 12-0 shellacking at the hands of Toronto yesterday. Sure, the Astros’ lineup is missing some key pieces, but you can’t be getting beat by the Blue Jays like that.

If, for some reason, Castillo doesn’t make it too deep into this start, no worries. The Cincy bullpen is leading a number of categories in advanced metrics over the last seven days.

Miley has been a pleasant surprise for the Astros this season, especially of late, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of the last nine starts. I don’t see him being as dominant as Castillo tonight, but certainly enough to not let this run total get out of hand. I’d be willing to bet that someone like Eugenio Suarez or Yasiel Puig tag him for a long ball, and that’ll ultimately be the difference.

I’m giving the Reds the win in this one, on the strength of a dominant performance from Castillo. It’s also a good sign for him that Houston loses its DH playing in the National League park.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 4 – Houston Astros: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -114)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (6-2, 4.63 ERA/1.38 WHIP)
OAK: Mike Fiers – R (6-3, 4.63 ERA/1.14 WHIP)

We’ve got trends galore in our favor for the A’s over the Orioles tonight – listen up!

Oakland is favored by its highest moneyline of the season tonight at -230. The A’s have been favored by -200 or more only twice this season, winning both games and scoring a total of 20 runs. Vegas knows what they’re doing.

The A’s will face Andrew Cashner, who they’ve beat up on a consistent basis. The veteran righty has a 6.83 ERA/1.69 WHIP against Oakland lifetime, and a lot of the hitters on the current roster have fantastic BvP numbers against him.

Mike Fiers has been fantastic over his last nine starts, allowing three runs or fewer each time out. He’s been even better against the Orioles, with a 3-1 record and 2.08 ERA/0.88 WHIP lifetime. Fiers also has great numbers at home this season, going 4-2 with a 0.95 WHIP. Over the last two seasons, Fiers’ team is 19-5 when he pitches at home and 16-7 when he pitches against teams with a losing record.

Oakland has been relaxing here on the West coast, while Baltimore had to travel across the country yesterday for tonight’s game. Look for them to experience plenty of jet-lag and the A’s to get a comfortable victory.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

NBA Finals and MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 2

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

 

[8:00 p.m. EST] NBA Finals – Game 2:
Under 213 (-110) – Golden State Warriors (ML: +112) at Toronto Raptors

Everyone was surprised by the outcome of Game 1, when the Raptors came out and dominated a rusty Warriors squad. It’s interesting to see nearly the same spread in consecutive games, but I’m calling Vegas’s bluff here.

I feel like too many people have already forgotten just how amazing this Warriors team is. They did a fantastic job on Kawhi Leonard, forcing him to give up the ball at nearly every turn. Expect Golden State to continue doing that, while Draymond Green turns up the intensity on Pascal Siakam. As Dray said after Game 1, he has to do a better job of making life difficult on Siakam – and he probably will.

The Warriors didn’t give Stephen Curry too much help in the series opener but expect that to change tonight. Hopefully, the refs let Klay Thompson get away with more of those “seven steps to the hole” moves. Not that they’ll need it though…

SK’s Trend Confidence rating also likes the under in tonight’s game. It makes sense, considering the game total has dropped two points and the Warriors defense should be much better.

* Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors: 103 – Toronto Raptors: 99 *

* 2019 MLB Record: 91-72-4 (55.8%) *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-116) – Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
CLE: Zach Plesac – R (0-0, 1.69 ERA/0.94 WHIP)
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (7-1, 2.85 ERA/0.98 WHIP)

Lucas Giolito has been outstanding for the White Sox this season, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and 69 strikeouts over 60 innings. It’s been so good for Giolito, that he’s allowed one run or fewer in each of his last five starts – all White Sox wins. Not only that, but Chicago has outscored its competition by a combined score of 19-5 over that span.

That goes to show you how few runs are being scored in some of these White Sox games. In fact, the total has gone under in 18 of the team’s last 25 games. We can also thank their bullpen, who has the fifth-best xFIP (3.72) in MLB over the last seven days.

Zach Plesac did a great job in his MLB debut last time out, allowing one run over 5 1/3 innings to a talented Red Sox lineup. Chicago’s offense has struggled mightily of late against right-handed pitching with .295 wOBA and .113 ISO numbers over the last 14 days. It probably won’t help the White Sox, considering they’ve never seen Plesac before and have limited footage on him. The Indians haven’t necessarily been pounding the ball either and got skilled by Giolito back on May 7 which ended up being a 2-0 White Sox win.

I’m looking for another low-scoring affair like there’s been in each of the last two games in this series. After all, the under has one of the highest SK Trend Confidence ratings (B+) of the day with this game

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 3 – Cleveland Indians: 2 *

[3:10 p.m. EST] Over 12.5 (-106) Toronto Blue Jays (ML: +124) at Colorado Rockies
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (3-5, 3.75 ERA/1.52 WHIP)
COL: Antonio Senzatela (3-4, 5.81 ERA/1.65 WHIP)

Vegas has spoken loudly by increasing the total by an entire run on this game, with both IRTs increasing as well: Blue Jays: +0.8, Rockies: +0.3. Just like the IRT increase, Toronto’s moneyline jump (+147 to +124) is the highest for any team on the slate.

The real key to the over today is Rockies’ pitcher Antonio Senzatela, who has a 6.17 ERA and .304 opposing batting average at Coors Field this season. Not only that, but Senzatela has been seen very well by opposing hitters in any setting of late, allowing 18 hits and five walks over his last 9 1/3 innings of work.

Aaron Sanchez will give it a go for the Blue Jays, and he’s been dealing with some finger issues of late. You have to wonder how far Sanchez will be pushed in this game, considering he has thrown 64 pitches or fewer in three of the last four starts. That’d be great news for the Rockies, as the Blue Jays’ bullpen has the sixth-highest WHIP (1.62) in MLB over the last seven days.

The Rockies have been excellent, going 8-1 on this current 10-game homestand, but it’s time for them to drop one to this pesky Blue Jays bunch. Those IRT and moneyline increases for Toronto are just way too telling here.

Toronto games have gone over the total in eight of the last 12, with two of those misnomers being pushes. Colorado games have gone over in seven of the last 11. It also helps that the wind will be blowing out at about 10 mph to left field.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 10 – Colorado Rockies: 7 *

[7:00 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 (-116) – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (2-2, 2.83 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
NYY: C.C. Sabathia – L (3-1, 3.48 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Hey, if you don’t like NBA Finals basketball… what the hell is wrong with you? Or, if you got two TVs or will find yourself at the local watering hole, ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball is a fantastic game to bet the over on tonight.

The Yankees absolutely own David Price, but luckily, he won’t have to deal with Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton. Unfortunately, Gary Sanchez and Luke Voit are still around and that’ll never be good news for David Price. Lifetime, Sanchez is 6-for-13 with five homers against him, while Voit is 3-for-5 with two homers.

Even though some of these younger Yanks don’t have a ton of experience against Price, rest assured that those vets will relay their knowledge down to them.

On the other side, old age might finally be catching up to CC Sabathia. The veteran lefty has now allowed 11 homers in his last 31 1/3 innings of work. While CC has historically pitched well against the Red Sox, this current version of him is certainly not in peak form.

This ballpark plays well for power hitters, so expect there to be quite a few long balls tonight. I’m not necessarily loving one side over the other, but definitely over the total.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – New York Yankees: 6 *