Tag: Baltimore Orioles

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, May 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 44-32-2 (58%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-1, 2.81 ERA)
BAL: John Means – L (3-3, 2.81 ERA)

Light rain is expected to fall throughout the entire game today, which will likely keep the offenses at bay quite a bit. Vegas already thinks so, as the Rays (-0.6) and Orioles (-0.4) have the largest- and third-largest IRT decreases on the entire slate.

Johns Means is getting a matchup against a normally-stout Rays offense, but they do have the highest K-rate (30.1%) against left-handed pitching this season. Tampa did go without a hit from the second-to-seventh innings in last night’s game and was only blanked on the scoreboard for the second time this season.

I’m usually a big fan of the Rays whenever they get to play the matchups in their patented “bullpen games.” The rain, however, does throw things off a bit, as Tampa hasn’t necessarily detailed its plan to the public just yet. All in all, though, these matchups are typically a good thing. Especially against an Orioles offense that has scored three runs or fewer in six of the last eight games.

Lastly, the weather is our friend here. If the rain does end up becoming problematic, it’s possible that the game gets called earlier than in nine innings. That would be music to our ears, as fewer innings would likely lead to fewer runs.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 3 – Tampa Bay Rays: 2 *

[1:35 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Oakland A’s at Pittsburgh Pirates
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (4-2, 2.97 ERA)
PIT: Jordan Lyles – R (2-1, 2.42 ERA)

Vegas has already spoken on this game with IRT decreases (Pirates: -0.6, A’s: -0.4) for both sides. However, what’s great here is that the game-total only dropped a half-run down to 8.0, not 7.5. Thanks, Vegas!

Frankie Montas and Jordan Lyles are two of the more underrated pitchers in baseball, so I look forward to these two showcasing their talents. Both teams rank in the bottom-third of wOBA (weighted on-base percentage) and wRC+ (weighted created-runs plus) against right-handed pitching, thus giving further evidence that this should be a low-scoring game.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland A’s: 4 – Pittsburgh Pirates: 2 *

[4:00 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-1.5, -148) at Los Angeles Angels
HOU: Justin Verlander – R (4-1, 2.45 ERA)
LAA: Matt Harvey – R (1-2, 6.54 ERA)

The current Angels’ lineup has a combined .169 batting average, .240 on-base percentage and .542 OPS lifetime against Justin Verlander – yikes! In fact, not one of them has a batting average over .300 in this matchup.

Matt Harvey takes the mound for the Halos, and he’s pitched well in each of his last two starts. However, one of those was against a Yankees team that traveled across the country and a Royals offense that just isn’t all that threatening.

Vegas isn’t buying Harvey’s recent success either, as the 1.5 run-line has favorable -146 juice on it. Not to mention, the Astros moneyline increase from -185 to -235 is BY FAR the largest on the entire slate. And speaking of increases, Houston’s IRT increase of 5.3 to 6.0 is also the largest for any team today.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 7 – Los Angeles Angels: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Friday, May 3

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 40-29-2 (58%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -146) at Baltimore Orioles
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (5-0, 1.75 ERA)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-2, 6.75 ERA)

We’ve got ourselves a good ole fashioned mismatch. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays has been virtually unhittable this season, with a microscopic 0.94 WHIP and allowing two runs or fewer in each of his six starts. Glasnow got the win against these same Orioles a little more than two weeks ago, allowing seven hits and two runs while striking out three over seven innings.

The Orioles are 3-9 over their last 12 games, with all of those wins coming against the White Sox. Dan Straily takes the hill at home for Baltimore and it has not been pretty for him this season, despite pitching a limited amount of innings. A 1.66 WHIP is what Straily has coughed up over 18 2/3 innings of work (five appearances/four starts), and it doesn’t help either that the Orioles’ bullpen has the worst ERA (6.27) in all of baseball.

Tampa’s offense gets a major park upgrade going into Camden Yards and did score 17 runs at home against Baltimore in its three-game series in mid-April. It’s quite intriguing to see the Rays have the highest IRT (5.8) of any team on tonight’s slate, so look for the Rays to continue putting the hurt on Orioles’ pitching in this matchup.

Although it’s a massive amount (-146) to lay on the 1.5-run line, I feel like Vegas is already telling us how big of an ass kicking this is going to be. I have enough confidence in the Rays to win by multiple runs and not be forced to lay -230 on the moneyline. Not to mention, Tampa’s moneyline increase from -190 to -230 is the highest on the entire slate.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5, +118)
WSH: Jeremy Hellickson – R (2-0, 5.82 ERA)
PHI: Jerad Eickhoff – R (1-1, 2.12 ERA)

These injuries are starting to take a toll on the Nationals’ offense, which has scored three runs or less in six of their last seven games. Yesterday, they had a golden opportunity to put a world of hurt on a weak pitcher, Dakota Hudson of the Cardinals, and looked like a bunch of damn fools in the process – granted, they got the win (which I called), but it was not pretty. Already missing Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon, Washington was without Juan Soto yesterday for the second game in a row, and there’s no word yet on whether he’ll be in Friday’s lineup.

If Washington couldn’t lay into Hudson, tonight will seem even more difficult against Philly’s Jerad Eickhoff, who has been great since returning from injuries which caused him to miss nearly all of 2018. At Citizens Bank Park this season (vs. MIA, vs. NYM), Eickhoff has allowed only five hits, one walk and no runs while striking out 12 over 11 innings. With or without Soto, I can certainly see the Nationals struggling in any regard against the underrated righty.

One thing I really like about the Phils tonight is their leadoff hitter, Andrew McCutchen. In 19 career plate appearance against Hellickson, McCutchen is 4-for-12 with seven walks – that means he is very comfortable in the batter’s box against him. If McCutchen is getting on base, you can expect the rest of the order to follow suit. The Nationals’ bullpen also has a 5.87 ERA, which ranks second-worst in all of baseball.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 6 – Washington Nationals: 3 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Toronto Blue Jays at Texas Rangers (-1.5, +120)
TOR: Trent Thornton – R (0-3, 5.08 ERA)
TEX: Mike Minor – L (3-2, 2.88 ERA)

Mike Minor has a 0.91 WHIP and is holding opposing batters to a .179 batting average. Not a good sign for the Blue Jays, who have the fourth-worst power metrics (ISO: .112) and seventh-worst weighted on-base average (wOBA: .287) against left-handed pitching this season. Minor is coming off a dazzling 13-strikeout performance over seven innings in Seattle and, in his last two home starts (vs. HOU, vs. LAA), has only allowed a combined eight hits, four walks and no runs while striking out 14 over 16 innings. Not to mention, Toronto played a very late game in Anaheim last night and will actually lose two hours of sleep time crossing two time zones into Arlington today.

Before his last outing, the Blue Jays had lost five straight games that Trent Thornton started. Tonight, he’ll have the displeasure of facing a Rangers team that is averaging 6.3 runs per game at home this season – tops in MLB.

* Final Score Prediction: Texas Rangers: 7 – Toronto Blue Jays: 2 *

[8:40 p.m. EST] Over 11 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
ARZ: Robbie Ray – L (1-1, 4.18 ERA)
COL: Tyler Anderson – L (0-2, 11.34 ERA)

The Rockies’ offense is clicking like no other at the moment, hanging 11 runs in back-to-back days at Milwaukee. In fact, Colorado has now scored at least seven runs in six of its last eight games. That’s great news for us bettors on the over, getting a hot offense against a pitcher they have clobbered historically. Robbie Ray has only won twice in 10 starts against the Rockies since 2016, and he allowed at least four runs in each of those outings. That’s actually a soft intro because Colorado has posted four runs or more in five of his last seven starts against them. The Rockies’ current roster has a combined .353 batting average, 1.095 OPS and 11 home runs in 153 plate appearances against Ray.

If that wasn’t enough, Tyler Anderson and his 11.34 ERA/2.16 WHIP take the mound for the Rockies this evening. All four of his starts have resulted in the game total reaching double-digits and, in two starts (vs. LAD, vs. WSH) at Coors Field this season, Anderson has allowed a combined 13 hits, six walks and 11 runs over seven innings.

I normally don’t condone grown men wearing baseball gloves to games, but if you’re sitting in the Coors Field outfield tonight, this might be the lone exception.

* Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks: 9 – Colorado Rockies: 8 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, April 27 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[2:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Minnesota Twins (-1.5, -116)
BAL: Dan Straily – R (1-1, 8.59 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (3-1, 2.97 ERA)

Death, taxes and Jose Berrios pitching at Target Field. This is a guy who loves sleeping in his own bed and getting that good home cooking. In two home starts this season, Berrios is 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA, allowing only six hits, two walks and two runs while striking out 17 over 14 1/3 innings. In fact, he is 20-5 when pitching in Minnesota since 2017.

For the Orioles, it’ll be Dan Straily taking the mound, and he has been nowhere near as efficient as his counterpart this season. Straily, who has surrendered seven homers over 14 2/3 innings this season, will be facing a deadly Twins lineup that is tied for fifth-most in MLB – despite playing the fewest games of any team. Not to mention, Minnesota hit five homers last night against Baltimore pitching.

The scene is set this afternoon for a comfortable Twins victory, so we’ll take them on the 1.5-run line and only lay -116 as opposed to the massive -260 moneyline.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[2:15 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals
CIN: Tyler Mahle – R (0-2, 3.52 ERA)
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (1-1, 5.89 ERA)

The Reds exploded for 12 runs last night and will have a great chance to start another carousel around the basepaths against Dakota Hudson, who has a massive 2.09 WHIP this season. Not to mention, he has allowed eight homers over 18 1/3 innings of work. With the wind blowing out to left field at about 14-16 mph during the game, this could definitely be problematic for Hudson and the Cardinals if he continues those lackluster ways.

Tyler Mahle takes the hill for Cincy, coming off two rough outings out West, where he allowed 18 hits and eight runs over 12 innings in matchups against the Dodgers and Padres. Just like Hudson, if he continues to allow baserunners to get aboard, we could see some big blasts that bring those guys around to home plate.

I do feel like the Reds come back with another victory in this one, but you would have to expect the Cardinals to put up a good fight after getting embarrassed at home last night – that doesn’t happen often.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 7 – St. Louis Cardinals: 6 *

[3:07 p.m. EST] Under 9 – Oakland A’s at Toronto Blue Jays
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (3-1, 3.04 ERA)
TOR: Aaron Sanchez – R (2-1, 2.77 ERA)

The A’s have not been able to figure out Blue Jays’ pitching, only scoring eight runs over the four matchups this season. And it won’t get any easier today as Aaron Sanchez takes the mound with a 2.77 ERA. This will only be the second start at Rogers Centre for Sanchez this season, but we’re looking for him to be quite comfortable in the friendly home confines.

The lefty Brett Anderson takes the mound for the A’s, and he has been able to limit opposing hitters to one home run over 26 2/3 innings this season. Anderson has been able to wiggle his way out of a few jams early on, but it’s a good sign that his control has been intact, allowing two walks or fewer in four of his five starts.

The IRT in this game came down a half-run to nine, so Vegas is thinking both starters should be quite effective in this matchup. I’ll have to agree and put my money on the under this afternoon.

* Final Score Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays: 4 – Oakland A’s: 3 *

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Wednesday, April 17

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

NBA Playoffs

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 207 – Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics

The second-highest SK Trend Confidence of the night for NBA is the under on tonight’s game between the Celtics and Pacers. Neither team shot the ball well in Boston’s 84-74 victory in Game 1 on Sunday, and we’re probably going to see more of the same since both teams were solid on the defensive end during the regular season – Indiana ranked third in defensive efficiency while Boston was sixth.

This could also be a game that the Celtics simply run away with, leaving the Pacers in the dust. Indy did fine, in terms of scoring points without Victor Oladipo most the season, but the playoffs are a much different game – especially with Brad Stevens coaching a focused Boston team.

The 207 total that Vegas placed on this game seems to tell the story beforehand, just as the 210.5 total did in Game 1.

[9:40 p.m. EST] Under 214 – Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets

Well, the SK Trend Confidence isn’t liking too many points in the NBA tonight, as the highest grade of the slate belongs to the under in tonight’s game between the Jazz and Rockets. Game 1 of this series wasn’t even close, a 32-point Houston victory, but I wouldn’t expect the same to go down tonight. Utah is incredibly well-coached and plays a very stingy brand of defense. Look for them to make the necessary adjustments and give James Harden & Co. a tougher time than usual scoring the basketball.

Although Game 1 was a much different story, the Jazz did hold the Rockets under 100 points in three of the four regular-season meetings. The only game which Utah did not, Houston scored 102 points.

On a side note, I do think the Jazz cover the 6.5-point spread and possibly, even win outright.

MLB Value Bets

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -128)
BAL: David Hess – R (1-2, 3.32 ERA)
TB: Ryne Stanek – R (0-0, 2.16 ERA)

I’m a big fan of taking the Rays when it’s one of their patented “bullpen games.” Reason being, they can play their best hand in most individual matchups, whereas your typical starter could get knocked around for the first few innings. Ryne Stanek will typically go one or two innings and then hand it over to the bullpen that has the seventh-best ERA (3.53) in MLB. Not to mention, Tampa Bay’s bullpen ranks in the top-five of most fancy analytic numbers that bore most people to death – not me.

After a slow start, the Rays’ offense now has at least eight runs in four of the last six games and that should play well against David Hess, who has allowed four homers and seven runs over his last 10 2/3 innings of work. If Hess can’t stay in the game long enough, Tampa Bay will have the benefit of facing Baltimore’s bullpen, which ranks dead-last for ERA (6.96) in the American League this season and second-worst in all of MLB.

The Rays’ -270 moneyline is a bit more than most people would be willing to lay, so going with the 1.5-run line lessens that quite a bit.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 3 *

 [7:20 p.m. EST] Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves (-1.5, +118)
ARZ: Zack Godley – R (1-1, 7.41 ERA)
ATL: Kevin Gausman – R (1-1, 2.84 ERA)

The Braves’ offense looks dialed in at the moment, with 44 runs in their last seven games. Tonight’s matchup against Zack Godley is a nice one, considering he has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 17 innings of work. Atlanta’s -160 moneyline matches its second-highest of the season, thus illuminating how much of a great spot they’re in.

Freddie Freeman, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis are a combined 11-for-26 (.423 avg.) lifetime against Godley. It’s also worth noting that Arizona’s bullpen has the second-worst ERA (6.04) in the National League and fourth-worst in all of MLB.

Kevin Gausman goes for the Braves, and while he didn’t have his best stuff in that last outing against the Mets, this is a guy that is capable of shutting any team down on a given night. I’ll place my faith in a talented pitcher more often than not and feel like he can at least do enough to keep the D-Backs down for most of the night.

Going with the +118 1.5-run line, you’re able to make a small profit, as opposed to shelling out more on the moneyline to earn less.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 9 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 4 *

NBA Playoffs & MLB Value Bets for Tuesday, April 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* NBA PLAYOFFS *

[9:00 p.m. EST] Under 210 – San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets

The Spurs did their job and got the road win in Game 1, so they can basically take the night off for the sake of us bettors. After all, this is pretty much how a series goes if the underdog wins the opener on the road – The underdog usually gets rolled in Game 2 – See: Brooklyn Nets last night. And don’t let the score in that 76ers/Nets game fool you, because the Nuggets and Spurs simply don’t have that type of offensive firepower.

The best value play in this game is taking the under. Dating back to the regular season, 17 of San Antonio’s last 22 games have gone under the total, while Denver’s games also have a track record of not going over the total, suffering that fate in 22 of its last 32.

While it looks like the Spurs could very well get their doors blown off, SK has more confidence in this one going under the total. If you’re a fan of prop bets, taking the under of 101.5 points for the Spurs’ team total would also be a wise move.

[10:30 p.m. EST] Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers (-114 ML)

The highest SK Trend Confidence (32%) on tonight’s NBA slate is Portland to win outright once again over OKC. Everyone figured the Thunder would easily win Game 1, considering they went 4-0 against the Trail Blazers during the regular season. Not to mention, Russell Westbrook has outplayed Damian Lillard in the head-to-head sense over the course of their careers.

However, the tide turned in the series opener, and that was with Portland not necessarily playing its best brand of basketball. Thankfully, the Trail Blazers had a 14-point lead at the end of the first quarter, and that allowed them to hold on for the five-point victory at the end.

OKC’s Westbrook (ankle) and Paul George (shoulder) are both a little banged up, and neither of them has completely dismissed the fact that these injuries will be an issue. If that truly is the case, the Thunder could be looking at an 0-2 hole heading back to OKC – and the SK Trend Confidence believes that will be the case.

* MLB REGULAR SEASON GAMES *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-250 ML/-1.5)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-1, 8.76 ERA)
TB: Tyler Glasnow – R (3-0, 0.53)

Betting MLB games like this one is usually what we look for – pitchers trending in opposite directions. Tyler Glasnow of the Rays is off to an amazing start, allowing only one run in 17 innings, while striking out 21 batters and walking three. On the other side, Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles, and he has been absolutely horrendous, allowing 12 runs in 12.1 innings. Bundy has racked up 17 strikeouts so far but that has been nullified by a massive 1.78 WHIP.

The Rays currently have the best winning percentage in all of MLB and are showing no signs of slowing down. Especially with a fantastic matchup against Bundy on the horizon.

Tampa Bay on the moneyline has a nice SK Trend Confidence rating of 30%. But it might make more sense to bet the Rays on the 1.5-run line (SK Trend Confidence rating of 26%) so you don’t have to risk as much money.

* Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays: 8 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[10:07 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-160 ML) at Oakland Athletics
HOU: Collin McHugh – R (2-1, 2.65 ERA)
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-1, 4.87 ERA)

The Astros will be looking to win their 10th consecutive game when they meet the A’s and if history is any indication, that shouldn’t be a problem. Collin McHugh has gone 9-1 with a 2.73 ERA in 18 appearances (12 starts) against Oakland over the course of his career. Not only that, but Houston’s bullpen has been outstanding at the onset, ranking third in all of MLB with a 2.70 ERA. The A’s bullpen has been responsible for five of the team’s losses, including four blown saves.

Houston’s offense is usually deadly, and this year is no different as it leads MLB with a collective .280 batting average. The Astros’ 32% SK Trend Confidence rating is the highest of any team on the moneyline tonight.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 6 – Oakland Athletics: 4 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, April 14

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[1:05 p.m. EST] Under 9.5 –  Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-252)
BAL: John Means (1-1, 2.08 ERA)
BOS: David Price – L (0-1, 6.00 ERA)

The weather in Boston is not looking great over the next few days and that might be why we’re seeing a big decrease in the total for this game. Baltimore has a -0.4 IRT decrease while Boston dipped even further at -0.6.

While it is super early in the season, the Red Sox need to get their act together. A 5-10 record certainly isn’t what they had in mind and this is a golden opportunity to capitalize on a team that doesn’t match up talent-wise. Not only does the current Orioles’ roster has a combined .236 batting average against Price, but they have an even more anemic .269 on-base percentage. Look for Price to have a solid start and the Red Sox back on track.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 6 – Baltimore Orioles: 2 *

[2:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 –  Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins
DET: Jordan Zimmermann – R (0-1, 2.50 ERA)
MIN: Jose Berrios – R (1-1, 2.18 ERA)

When Berrios is at home, you just simply roll with the goodness. He skilled a gem in his season debut at Target Field, but the 18-5 mark Berrios has posted there over the last two seasons should give bettors even more confidence that he’ll get the job done today.

I’d love to just take the Twins outright, but that is a ton of money to be laying. Let’s roll with the under in this one, considering Zimmermann has been surprisingly good to start the season. That last start didn’t go too well against Cleveland, but I feel like this is a guy who has found something in his old age — at least enough to keep the total to a minimum.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 5 – Detroit Tigers: 0 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Houston Astros (-180) at Seattle Mariners – Total: 8
HOU: Gerrit Cole – R (0-2, 3.32 ERA)
SEA: Marco Gonzales – L (4-0, 3.16 ERA)

The Mariners probably felt all giddy with themselves heading into this mega-matchup with the Astros, but my, oh my, how the tide has turned. I’m looking at another Houston win in this game, considering they have a ton of righty bats that can do damage against Gonzalez, who has allowed at least eight baserunners in three of his four starts this season.

Not to mention, Cole is a damn good pitcher and someone that can’t go too long without having a win under his belt this far into the season.

* Final Score Prediction: Houston Astros: 9 – Seattle Mariners: 3 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Thursday, April 11 (Afternoon Games)

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

[12:35 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds (-165) – Total: 8.5
MIA: Pablo Lopez – R (1-1, 6.10 ERA)
CIN: Sonny Gray – R (0-2, 2.89 ERA)

The Marlins’ bats are struggling mightily on this current road trip, with only eight runs over the last five games. And it’s even more disheartening that they have only posted one run at The Great American Ballpark, which is an absolute launching pad most of the time.

Gray hasn’t gotten one run of support from Reds’ bats yet this season but today could be the day against Lopez, who has shown signs of vulnerability at times this season. Being in the offensive haven that is The Great American Ballpark, that probably won’t play well for him and the rest of the Marlins on getaway day.

* Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds: 6 – Miami Marlins: 2 *

[12:35 p.m. EST] Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles (+132) – Total: 9.5
OAK: Aaron Brooks – R (1-1, 4.09 ERA)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (0-0, 7.36 ERA)

Last season, Bundy had a 6-1 record and 2.28 ERA in day games, compared to the 2-15 mark and 7.48 ERA he posted in night games. Well, his first start during the afternoon this season didn’t go as planned, but I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on him against an A’s team that will essentially be playing this game at 9:35 a.m. on their biological clock. Granted, Oakland has had three games already here in Baltimore but playing one in the early afternoon is a much tougher task.

The Orioles’ +132 moneyline number in this game really isn’t too bad of a spot, considering the general public doesn’t really think much of them. It’s always a risk taking Baltimore, but they might catch Oakland literally sleeping in this one.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 6 – Oakland A’s: 3 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Cleveland Indians at Detroit Tigers
CLE: Shane Bieber – R (0-0, 3.38 ERA)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (0-1, 4.08 ERA)

Bieber Fever finally got his first start of the season on Friday and looked sharp, allowing only two hits, two walks and two runs over six innings while striking out nine against the Blue Jays. Detroit is still one of the worst offensive teams to start the 2019 campaign with 37 runs in 13 games and will likely have a hard time improving today.

On the other side, it’s not like Cleveland’s bats have been much better, with only 40 runs over 12 games. Turnbull goes for the Tigers, and while he’s been average, it’s not like the Tribe’s offense should be scaring anyone at the moment.

* Final Score Prediction: Cleveland Indians: 3 – Detroit Tigers: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, April 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

MLB Value Betting Picks for Monday, April 8

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 – Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles
OAK: Marco Estrada – R (0-0, 2.76 ERA)
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R (1-1, 5.40 ERA)

Runs, runs, everyone loves some fun! If the last series against the Yankees was any indication of how bad Orioles’ pitching has been, fans sitting in the Camden Yards’ outfield tonight better bring their mitts to the stadium.

Both sides have seen their Implied Run Total (IRT) increase greatly since the opening lines came out, and that’s a telling sign when looking for offense on the slate. In fact, Oakland’s IRT jumped 0.6 runs (Baltimore at +0.4) since the open, which is the second-highest increase of any team today. Reason being, the A’s have seen Cashner very well over the course of their careers – specifically, Kendrys Morales (6-for-10, 3 HR, 2 BB, 0 K) and Khris Davis (6-for-17, 1 HR). The current roster actually has a combined .354 batting average and 1.078 OPS against Cashner over his career. Not to mention, the Orioles’ bullpen has allowed the most runs (36) in all of MLB this season.

Six of Baltimore’s nine games have gone over the total this season and this is shaping up to be another high-scoring affair. The SK value system has a +36% Trend Confidence in this one going over 12.5 runs, so that should blow right past the current total.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 4

[8:15 p.m. EST] Over 10 –  Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
SEA: Felix Hernandez – R (1-0, 1.69 ERA)
KC: Homer Bailey – R (0-0, 5.40 ERA)

Sure, “King” Felix had a solid debut to the 2019 season, but we should remember that he’s typically been a much better pitcher at home over the course of his career. This is a pitcher that is clearly on a downward slope and Vegas has recognized that, giving KC the highest IRT increase (+0.7) on the entire slate.

Seattle has been rocking and rolling on offense, scoring the most runs (85) of any team in MLB, but they have also committed the most errors in the league as well. That, coupled with the fact that Homer Bailey will be on the mound for KC, makes this a great play on the over. Certainly going to have a few cleats touching home plate tonight!

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 10 – Seattle Mariners: 9

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 7 – San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
SD: Eric Lauer – L (1-1, 3.27 ERA)
SF: Madison Bumgarner – L (0-2, 1.38 ERA)

We’ve got a fantastic matchup of southpaw dealers at Oracle Park tonight as Bumgarner and Lauer take the hill. It’s interesting to note that MadBum has never started his career 0-3, which looks him squarely in the eye tonight. I’d expect him to know this and take that as a personal challenge, thus leading to an epic performance.

Lauer is a very underrated pitcher that people will learn about sooner than later, but his last start didn’t fare too well against the D-Backs. He did, however, skill the Giants on Opening Day, allowing only four hits and one walk over six innings while striking out three hitters. Lauer’s ability, and the Giants’ lack of offense, set the stage for a low-scoring pitcher’s duel in San Francisco.

Bettors on the under would be fascinated to know that each of the first four matchups between these teams have landed on the under.

* Final Score Prediction: San Francisco Giants: 3 – San Diego Padres: 2

MLB Betting Preview for Afternoon Games on Thursday, April 4

Welcome to a beautiful Thursday afternoon of MLB action! We’ve got four games on the early slate to break down, so without further ado…

[1:05 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals (-105) at Detroit Tigers – Total: 8
KC: Jakob Junis – R (1-0, 4.76 ERA)
DET: Spencer Turnbull – R (0-1, 5.40 ERA)

Junis has absolutely owned the Tigers over the course of his career, going 6-1 with a 3.12 ERA in seven starts (eight appearances) – he went 4-0 with a 1.95 ERA in five starts against them last season. That should be enough confidence, but you have to think this Tigers squad is a bit too giddy after taking the last two games of their series with the Yanks in New York.

Turnbull is still looking for the first win of his MLB career and he’ll have a tough time doing it against a speedy KC bunch. Being mostly a sinker-ball pitcher, Turnbull could get chipped away at in the cold Detroit weather by a lineup that can put a lot of pressure on the Tigers’ defense.

KC’s bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA (7.27), but the Tigers’ bats aren’t doing much damage either, with only 12 runs over the first seven games. It’s time for the turnaround!

Also, the wind will be blowing in at 9 mph from left field, so that should keep the ball in the park a bit more.

* Final Score Prediction: Kansas City Royals: 4 – Detroit Tigers: 3

[1:10 p.m. EST] Washington Nationals at New York Mets (-128) – Total: 6.5
WSH: Stephen Strasburg – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)
NYM: Noah Syndergaard – R (0-0, 6.00 ERA)

This is a starting pitcher’s rematch from the second game of this season, as the Mets got the 11-8 victory the first time around. Strasburg (8) and Syndergaard (7) had a combined 15 strikeouts in six innings apiece last Saturday, but they also gave up four earned runs each in the process.

Vegas has certainly left its mark on this game with a 6.5-run total, and you have to think we’re heading for a pitcher’s duel. The Nationals will be without one of the best base-stealers in the game, Trea Turner, and that should alleviate a great deal of stress that Syndergaard might have about keeping runners on base. In fact, April has been one of the better months over his career, allowing only one homer in 82 2/3 innings since 2016.

The Stras hasn’t been quite as good as Thor in the month of April, but it is worth noting that he does have a 24-5 record with a 2.52 ERA in 34 road starts since 2016.

All in all, we should look for both pitchers to rebound and put on quite the performance. But we’re giving the Mets the win, given their recent hot streak to begin the 2019 campaign.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Mets: 3 – Washington Nationals: 2

[3:05 p.m. EST] New York Yankees (-200) at Baltimore Orioles – Total: 8
NYY: James Paxton – L (0-1, 1.59 ERA)
BAL: Alex Cobb – R (Season Debut)

It seems like the remaining healthy players on the Yankees’ roster should be sporting bubble-wrap because they could be the next ones to land on the Injured List (it’s still the Disabled List, I don’t care what anyone says). Those remaining Yanks will head to Baltimore to face the Orioles, who are playing the home opener. Typically, this is a place that New York has gone in and dominated, especially in the crowd, but the start to this season has been anything but typical for the Evil Empire.

Alex Cobb was supposed to take the mound on Opening Day for the O’s before a minor injury negated that opportunity. After a dreadful start to the season, Cobb had some good performances down the stretch, but I don’t think we should be looking for more of the same today. And perhaps, it’ll do the Yanks some good to get away from their anxious fans in the Bronx.

James Paxton will take the mound to do what the Yanks paid him to do – win ball games. He wasn’t bad at all in his season debut against this same O’s squad, allowing four hits, one walk and two runs (one earned) over 5 and 2/3 innings while striking out five.

Neither team has been crushing the ball to start the season, but I do think it’ll do the Yankees some good to hit the road and get their minds right. Look for them to get to Cobb early en route to the victory.

* Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees: 8 – Baltimore Orioles 3

[3:37 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (-114) at Oakland Athletics – Total: 8.5
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (0-1, 10.38 ERA)
OAK: Brett Anderson – L (1-0, 0.00 ERA)

The Boston Red Sox capped off a thrilling win on Wednesday night with a three-run ninth inning, and the hope is that they take this momentum into today’s game against Brett Anderson and the A’s bullpen. And Lord knows, the defending champs need to get back on the good foot, with only two wins in their first seven games of the season.

The Red Sox pitching has finally settled down a bit, allowing only four runs in the last two games. This comes after they allowed 41 runs over the first five games of the season — Yikes!!! That trend should continue, as today’s starter Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2-1 record and 2.33 ERA in four career starts against the A’s, including a 1-0 record and 1.69 ERA in two starts at Oakland.

I don’t think the Red Sox pitching woes are fully solved in the bullpen, though. After all, there should be some fatigue after playing all these extra playoff games over the last few years, including the World Series run last season. However, this is a desperate Boston team and they get the bats going today.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Oakland Athletics: 4

MLB Opening Day Betting Preview for Thursday, March 28

It’s the most wonderful time of the year – MLB Opening Day!!! Sure, the start of baseball is the true signal that summer and warm weather are right around the corner, but it’s the game that we have missed so much. Sit down and get comfortable, folks — we’ve got 162 of these to get through. Let’s just start with the first day, though. Here are three games that we should all be keeping an eye on today.

MLB Betting Preview for Thursday, March 28 (Opening Day)

[1:05 p.m. EST] Over 9 – Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
BAL: Andrew Cashner – R
NYY: Masahiro Tanaka – R

The New York Yankees hit an MLB-record 267 home runs last season, and they’ll look to pick right back up where they left off against Andrew Cashner and the Baltimore Orioles. Cashner went 1-2 with a 4.26 ERA in four starts against the Yanks last season, and he’ll have to deal with a New York lineup that had the second-most homers (49), only one behind the Milwaukee Brewers, during Spring Training. Aaron Judge led the way for the Yanks with six homers, 15 RBI and a 1.394 OPS down in Florida, while Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Troy Tulowitzki, Luke Voit, Greg Bird and Brett Gardner all raked as well. Masahiro Tanaka gets the ball on Opening Day for the Yanks, but he was much less effective at the (un)friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, going 5-5 with a 4.09 ERA in 12 starts there last season. He also allowed a .272 batting average there, compared to .212 on the road. Yankee Stadium is one of the best parks in all of baseball for offense and we should be reminded of that in the first game of the season. The Spread Knowledge system likes the over!

 [4:05 p.m. EST] Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays (+120)
HOU: Justin Verlander – R
TBR: Blake Snell – L

In what will likely be the second-best pitching matchup of the day (sorry, deGrom-Scherzer takes the crown), Justin Verlander and Blake Snell will go toe-to-toe at Tropicana Field to open the season. Snell was a remarkable 10-1 with a 1.27 ERA in 14 starts at home last season, and the Spread Knowledge system likes him to pick back up on that string of success and lead the Rays to a win. It won’t come easy, though, as Verlander was 12-2 with a 2.14 ERA in 15 road starts last season. This one will likely come down to the bullpens, in which Tampa Bay may have a slight advantage. Not to mention, Carlos Correa could miss this game with a sore neck and that would be a glaring hole in the Astros’ lineup. The Spread Knowledge system leans in favor of the home team Rays on Opening Day!

Update: Carlos Correa will indeed miss today’s game. 

[4:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins (+126)
COL: Kyle Freeland – L
MIA: Jose Urena – R

Kyle Freeland gets the ball for the Colorado Rockies on Opening Day, and it’s worth noting that he has had a better record and ERA at Coors Field in each of his first two MLB seasons. Reason being, he’s from Colorado and grew up learning to pitch in the high altitude. Call it what you will, but Freeland just isn’t the same pitcher away from home. Perhaps the oddsmakers are giving the Miami Marlins the benefit of the doubt on Opening Day, but their +126 moneyline odds to win outright don’t measure up to a team that is supposed to finish last in nearly every category this season. In fact, there are actually four teams with lesser moneyline odds today than the Marlins. The value is there for Miami, especially with Jose Urena on the mound. He has made incredible strides in each of the last two seasons, and the 1.18 WHIP that Urena sported in 2018 is a true testament to how far he has come. The Spread Knowledge system is rolling with MIA in this one!

Don’t forget to check out our NBA and NCAA value picks to be released later today!