Tag: Free Pick

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, August 13

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 204-142-9 (59.1%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 40-10-3 record over the last 53 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!
[8:40 p.m. EST] Under 12 – Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
ARZ: Zac Gallen – R (2-3, 2.40 ERA/1.14 WHIP)
COL: Jon Gray – R (10-8, 4.06 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has been excellent at picking out these unders from games at Coors Field, the greatest hitting park known to man. Well, here we are, back for more with reasons to believe that we’ll see a lower-than-usual total on this game.

Vegas already made adjustments on this game, lowering the game total from 12.5 to 12.0 and decreasing the IRTs (implied runs totals) for both sides – D-Backs: -0.3, Rockies: -0.2.

We’ve pretty much been on Zac Gallen at every step of the way on his MLB journey, and thank goodness for that. The rookie right-hander has been nothing short of magnificent in seven starts with the Marlins and in his D-Backs debut last week, where he threw five innings of one-hit shutout ball with six strikeouts.

In each of Gallen’s last six starts, the game total has never risen above seven runs.
The Rockies’ offense (or team, as a whole) hasn’t been great, especially against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days, posting less-than-average .306 weighted on-base average and .136 ISO (power metric) numbers.

Jon Gray has looked a lot better of late, even though the traditional numbers might not tell that story. For whatever reason, he really struggled against a mess of a Giants team in two starts and then had a bunch of good outings around that one. However, in Gray’s last outing, the defense let him down big time as only three of the seven runs he allowed were earned.

Gray has only allowed six runs in 16 1/3 innings this season against the Rockies, holding them to three runs or fewer in each of his three starts. The D-Backs’ offense has slowed down a bit over the last 21 days against right-handed pitching, posting .278 weighted on-base average and .160 ISO numbers.

All in all, we’ve got two starting pitchers that are fully capable of shutting down two struggling offenses and leading us to the under in victorious fashion.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 5 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 3

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Monday, August 12

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 203-141-9 (59.1%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since July 28, we have a 39-9-3 record over the last 51 premium picks — these do not include free picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!
[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 – Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
BAL: Ty Blach – L (0-0, 14.21 ERA/2.84 WHIP)
NYY: Chad Green – R (2-3, 4.82 ERA/1.44 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has lots of confidence on the total in the Orioles-Yankees game going over tonight. And how could it not, when 13 of the 16 matchups have done just that this season.

Yankees’ color commentator/former outfielder Paul O’Neill said it on the postgame show, after their 8-5 victory in Game 1 of the doubleheader this afternoon, but this is just a perfect matchup. Orioles pitchers throw baseballs and Yankees’ hitters bop them over the outfield wall.

Things won’t be getting any better as Baltimore brought Ty Blach aboard by way of San Francisco. Blach has had brief moments of success, but tonight’s matchup against the Yankees will not be one of them. The Bronx Bombers are destroying left-handed pitching over the last 21 days to the tune of a .459 weighted on-base average and .337 ISO (power metric).

The most important piece to this puzzle, though, is the Orioles bullpen which already pitched some innings this afternoon. There’s just not a lot of upside to the team that owns MLB’s worst bullpen ERA at 6.30 this season.

Chad Green will be the opener for the Yankees, but it’s going to be a bullpen day after that. New York really doesn’t have a lot of quality arms available for this game, as it’ll like be Nestor Cores Jr., Brady Lail, Joe Mantiply and Chance Adams doing yeoman’s work.

We talk about this a lot, but for as bad as the Orioles are as a team, they definitely play some exciting ball on the offensive end. Look for them to tack on plenty of runs against some of the Yankees subpar bullpen pitching as well.

* Final Score Prediction * New York Yankees: 12 – Baltimore Orioles: 6

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, August 11

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 202-140-8 (59.1%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 38-8-2 record over the last 48 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[4:10 p.m. EST] Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers (1.5-run line: -110)
ARZ: Mike Leake – R (9-8, 4.24 ERA/1.29 WHIP)
LAD: Hyun-Jin Ryu – L (11-2, 1.53 ERA/0.94 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the D-Backs at Dodgers game out West. We’ll be taking the Dodgers on the 1.5-run line with nice trends leading the way.

Hyun-Jin Ryu clearly likes sleeping in his own bed, as evidenced by his gaudy 8-0 record and 0.89 ERA/0.79 WHIP in 10 starts at home. The Dodgers are 18-2 in Ryu’s last 20 starts there.

It truly is remarkable what Ryu has been able to do at Chavez Ravine, and he’ll be facing a D-Backs team that hasn’t been doing well against left-handed pitching of late. Arizona hasn’t been able to figure Ryu out yet this season, with only one run against him in 13 innings of work.

Mike Leake will be pitching for the D-Backs… and that’s great news for the Dodgers. Leake has allowed at least eight hits in six of his last eight starts, including 30 total over his last three (18 innings of work).

Los Angeles’s offense hasn’t been at its best lately, but this is a perfect opportunity for them to get back on the good foot. For as good as Ryu has been at home, Leake has been the exact opposite in road starts – he’s 2-6 with a 5.53 ERA and opposing hitters are raking him at a .303 clip.

All in all, it’s a massive mismatch of starting pitcher. Let’s take advantage of that and go with the Dodgers on the 1.5-run line!

* Final Score Prediction * Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 – Arizona Diamondbacks: 1

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Saturday, August 10

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 199-140-8 (58.6%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 35-8-2 record over the last 45 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: +120)
CLE: Adam Plutko – R (4-2, 4.55 ERA/1.15 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (12-5, 3.61 ERA/1.19 WHIP)

Today’s SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day is the Twins covering the 1.5-run line over the Indians. It’s about time Minnesota gets on the board in this series, having already let Cleveland grab a share of the AL Central lead.

Vegas has spoken already, giving the Twins a +0.4 IRT (implied run total) increase, which is tied for the highest of any team on today’s MLB schedule.

Thankfully for Minnesota, it’ll have the luxury of putting Jake Odorizzi on the mound. He has absolutely dominated Cleveland this season, posting a 0.71 WHIP while allowing only two runs and striking out 13 batters in 11 1/3 innings.

Odorizzi has been just as good in each of his last two starts overall (@MIA, vs ATL) allowing two runs and striking out 12 batters in 11 2/3 innings of work.

Adam Plutko might look like he has solid numbers of late, but he has lucked out by facing the Royals twice and a struggling Angels team. Nonetheless, Plutko will be running into a desperate Twins team looking to regain that lead in the AL Central.

While the Twins do have Nelson Cruz on the injured list, the top of their lineup (Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Rosario) still has great advanced metrics against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Look for them to be a key factor in the Twins getting back on the good foot tonight.

All in all, the Twins need a huge team performance to stay afloat, they’ll get it. Look for Plutko to take a step back and Minnesota’s offense to get back into rhythm.

* Final Score Prediction * Minnesota Twins: 6 – Cleveland Indians: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Friday, August 9

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 197-139-8 (58.6%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

After last night’s 1-2 evening (our first losing night in nearly two weeks!), we now have a 33-7-2 record over the last 42 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 8 – Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
ATL: Julio Teheran – R (6-7, 3.46 ERA/1.30 WHIP)
MIA: Caleb Smith – L (7-5, 3.35 ERA/1.05 WHIP)

We got whacked over the skull last night by taking the under as one of our premium picks, but we’re confident that it’ll come through for us tonight. As no surprise, the Marlins do have the second-lowest IRT (implied run total) of any team on the slate.

Julio Teheran will look to cool off a Miami team that posted nine runs last night. Where it came from? I have no idea, but last night’s lineup should all have to get their urine tested before tonight’s game.

Nonetheless, over the last 21 days, the Marlins have posted a dreadful .260 weighted on-base average, .158 ISO (power metric) and 23.3% K-rate against right-handed pitching. It’s no secret, but they own league-worst or near-league-worst numbers in nearly every single advanced metric in this split against righties.

After a rough finish to the end of June, Teheran got back on track against this same Marlins team by tossing six innings of scoreless ball, and then followed that up with five stellar outings before tonight. Teheran has been excellent against the Marlins this season, with a 0.78 WHIP and no runs allowed over 18 innings.

I like my Caleb Smith at Marlins Park, which is exactly where he’ll be tonight. The splits are truly something else, as he owns a 5-1 record, 2.66 ERA, .181 opposing batting average and 4 HR allowed – compared to a 2-4 record, 3.95 ERA, .210 opposing batting average and 14 HR allowed.

It’s very odd to see the Braves struggling against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, as they own a .284 weighted on-base average and 29.4% K-rate. Obviously, last night’s lack of offense was unexpected after hanging double-digits in back-to-back days in Minnesota, but it’ll be interesting to see if those struggles continue once again.

All in all, we’re expecting both of these starting pitchers to bring their A-game and keep this total under eight runs for all of our loyal customers. Godspeed!

* Final Score Prediction * Atlanta Braves: 4 – Miami Marlins: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Thursday, August 8

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 196-137-8 (59%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 32-5-1 record over the last 38 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[10:10 p.m. EST] Colorado Rockies (ML: -108) at San Diego Padres
COL: Jon Gray – R (10-7, 4.03 ERA/1.39 WHIP)
SD: Eric Lauer – L (6-8, 4.43 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Padres-Rockies game, with the visitors coming out victorious. After all, Colorado has managed to win six of the nine meetings between the two teams this season.

Jon Gray has a fantastic history against the Padres, going 10-3 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.03 WHIP against them in 18 career starts. This season, he’s 2-0 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.40 WHIP versus San Diego in four outings (three starts).

Other than two blowup outings against the Giants, Gray has done quite well in his last nine starts, allowing three runs or fewer. It’s such a baffling feat, considering San Francisco has been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball over the last few weeks. Nevertheless, Gray shouldn’t run into that problem tonight. The Padres’ offense has anemic .261 weighted on-base average, .147 ISO (power metric) and 30.3% K-rate numbers against right-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

For yesterday’s free pick, we had the over in the Padres-Mariners game, hoping the Padres would be able to smack Yusei Kikuchi around T-Mobile Park. If they couldn’t get it done in that great of a scenario, that should give us plenty of optimism for Gray to get it done tonight.

Eric Lauer has been consistently knocked around by this Rockies team, going 0-3 with a 12.51 ERA and 2.49 WHIP in four career starts. This season, it’s been even worse, allowing a total of 18 hits, four walks and 13 runs against Colorado with an opposing batting average of .529!

Both of these teams have been struggling of late, but we can be more compassionate to the Rockies and the difficulty of their schedule. Not to mention, the number of marquee pitchers they’ve faced during this run of losses.

All in all, we’re looking for Gray to outduel Lauer, and give the Rockies the victory in the process.

* Final Score Prediction * Colorado Rockies: 5 – San Diego Padres: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Wednesday, August 7

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 192-136-9 (58.5%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 28-4-2 record over the last 34 picks — still two games pending from this afternoon, and we pushed on White Sox-Tigers total going under. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. You can click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[6:40 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
SD: Joey Lucchesi – L (7-6, 4.23 ERA/1.18 WHIP)
SEA: Yusei Kikuchi – L (4-8, 5.49 ERA/1.48 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Mariners-Padres game. We’ve got the total going over as one of higher plays on this slate, considering each of these lefty starting pitchers is in a tough spot.

Let’s start with Yusei Kikuchi, who will likely be the one giving up most of these runs. Kikuchi has allowed 28 homers this season in 118 innings this season, including eight of them in his last 15 2/3 innings of work.

The Padres’ lineup features a ton of power-hitting right-handed bats and get to use an extra one as the designated hitter tonight. They also own an impressive .354 weighted on-base average and .193 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, so things are certainly looking up in that regard.

Not to mention, the Mariners have allowed at least nine runs in four of their last five games.
Joey Lucchesi is a solid pitcher; he just does nearly all of his good work at Petco Park. On the road, however, it’s a much different story. Lucchesi can’t seem to get comfortable in a hotel bed, posting a 1-6 record and 6.46 ERA in nine road starts, and the splits are certainly disparaging when looking at the opposing batting average — .186 at home, compared to .282 on the road.

Seattle does have solid .338 weighted on-base average and .221 ISO numbers against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

All in all, we’re expecting each of these starters to get lit up early, and that’ll coast us right to the victory.

* Final Score Prediction * San Diego Padres: 8 – Seattle Mariners: 6

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, August 6

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 189-136-8 (58.2%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

Since last Sunday, we have a 25-4-1 record over the last 30 picks. In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. For people like Tony Stugots, who will undoubtedly question every single thing we do, you can click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[9:45 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 – Washington Nationals at San Francisco Giants
WSH: Anibal Sanchez – R (6-6, 3.80 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
SF: Conner Menez – L (0-0, 3.60 ERA/1.00 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Giants-Nationals game. We’re going with the under on this one, considering the game will be played in extreme pitching conditions.

We all know Oracle Park as one of, if not, the worst venues for offense in baseball. However, things get even worse towards the end of the season with the temperatures dropping like crazy by the bay. The forecast temperatures in the low-60s, moving into the upper-50s as day turns to night. These lower temperatures cause the ball to have a lot less carry to it.

Also, if you see that the wind is blowing out at 11 mph – it doesn’t matter. Oracle Park is designed in a way so that whether the wind is blowing towards the plate or the outfield, it has no effect whatsoever.

As for the game itself, Anibal Sanchez will probably be the guy we rely on more. It’s quite surprising, but he’s actually allowed three runs or fewer in 17 of his 20 starts this season. Sanchez has a great history against the Giants, going 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA in seven lifetime starts, and even more impressive is his 3-0 record and 0.58 ERA in four starts at Oracle Park – two of which, were complete-game shutouts.

The Giants offense has sputtered after a great stretch of games throughout late-June and early-July. Over the last 21 days, they own a dreadful .303 weighted on-base average and .103 ISO (power metric) against right-handed pitching.

What’s even more surprising is the Nationals inability to hit left-handed pitching in recent games. After tearing them up at the beginning of the season, Washington now owns .278 weighted on-base average and .109 ISO numbers over the last 21 days against lefties.

Conner Menez made his MLB debut back on July 21, allowing two runs over five innings against the Mets. He was sent back down to the minors after that start, but a lot of these Giants execs have done nothing but gloat about the kid.

We’re probably not looking at Menez pitching the game of his life, but it’s all about moderation here. A similar performance to his MLB debut, allowing two runs in five innings before handing it off to the bullpen, is what we should expect.

Giants games have gone under the total in eight of the last 11 games – with one push – and a good amount of those came on the road. Look for them to struggle once again and the Nationals to add just a couple more runs to get the win.

* Final Score Prediction * Washington Nationals: 3 – San Francisco Giants: 1

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Monday, August 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 186-136-8 (57.8%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 – Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
KC: Mike Montgomery – L (1-4, 6.34 ERA/1.77 WHIP)
BOS: Rick Porcello – R (9-8, 5.74 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has tons of love for the total going over on tonight’s Red Sox-Royals game, despite having a massive 11.5-run total. These two starting pitchers are a big reason why we’re heading in this direction, and it’s worth noting that Boston’s games have gone over the total in 17 of the last 23 while Kansas City’s have gone over the total in seven of the last nine.

Most of the runs are coming from the Red Sox tonight, plain and simple. Mike Montgomery takes the mound for the Royals, and this guy has allowed 18 hits and 10 runs in 11 1/3 innings since joining the team. Those totals could certainly increase tonight as Boston’s 7.2 IRT (implied run total) is the highest for any team on today’s entire schedule of games.

The Red Sox have been mashing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .387 weighted on-base average and .315 ISO (power metric) over the last 21 days. If that wasn’t enough, the Royals bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA in all of baseball this season.

Rick Porcello is the final piece to this puzzle, allowing at least four runs in six of his last seven starts – he allowed exactly six runs in four of his last six games (34 2/3 innings), and a total of 10 homers in that span. While KC’s offense isn’t exactly humming along at the moment, it should certainly have no problem posting a handful of runs against Porcello.

It’s quite interesting, but the Red Sox must know they have to be on their A-game offensively when Porcello is on the mound. And it makes perfect sense, considering they’ve scored a double-digit number of runs in five of his last six starts.

All in all, we’re looking for the Red Sox offense to be the catalyst in taking this total over the mark. But we’ve also got faith in the Royals to add some runs on the board here as well.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 12 – Kansas City Royals: 4

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, August 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 182-136-8 (57.4%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (7-4, 3.86 ERA/1.25 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (8-6, 5.19 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Bronx, where the Yankees will host the Red Sox. We like the total going over 9.5 runs, with plenty of reasons to think so.

David Price finally got his first win ever at Yankee Stadium earlier this season, but this place has been a house of horrors for him since joining the Red Sox. Price’s 1-6 record and 8.59 ERA/1.96 WHIP in seven starts there paints a nasty image, and his recent performances haven’t been much better. Over his last three starts (@BAL, @TB, vs. TB), Price has allowed 21 hits (5 HR) and 13 runs over a span of 14 1/3 innings.

J.A. Happ may have good numbers against these Red Sox hitters, but he’ll be going against a desperate team looking to avoid a four-game sweep. We fully expect the likes of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts to get it popping on offense, whether Boston wins or loses this game. We saw this scenario play out the opposite way last weekend when the Red Sox took the first three games before the Yankees put a beatdown on Chris Sale… again.

Happ has been getting hit hard over his last three starts (vs. COL, @ MIN, vs. ARZ), allowing 22 base-knocks (4 HR) and 11 runs over his last 14 1/3 innings.

It’s worth noting that both teams are absolutely crushing left-handed pitching over the last 21 days:

BOS: .374 weighted on-base average, .295 ISO
NYY: .355 weighted on-base average, .241 ISO

All in all, we’ve got a history of one pitcher struggling mightily in this ballpark and one desperate team looking to make some noise on offense. It’s a beautiful combination of riches that will lead to the total going over.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 8 – New York Yankees: 6