Tag: Boston Red Sox

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Tuesday, August 20

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 212-156-10 (58%) *

SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up with Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

In order to get access to those same picks that were once in this space, sign up at the links above. Click on the Covers link above to see the proof of just how well things have been going lately. Also, read the article they posted where we’re mentioned!

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 – Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
PHI: Aaron Nola – R (11-3, 3.56 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
BOS: Brian Johnson – L (1-1, 6.45 ERA/2.01 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Phillies-Red Sox interleague showdown. It’s quite interesting to see Boston favored in this game, considering the mismatch of starting pitching, on paper, for Philly. With that being said, we’re taking the over with the thought that more than a few runs will be scored on Tuesday night.

Over the last 21 days, both teams have been doing well against the handedness of starting pitcher they’ll be facing tonight. The Phillies .363 weighted on-base average/.200 ISO (power metric) and Red Sox .383 weighted on-base average/.249 ISO certainly paint a nice picture for the scoreboard being lit up.

Aaron Nola typically gets a sizeable moneyline when facing a low-end starter, so there’s plenty of reason to think things won’t go his way tonight. After all, his 4.63 ERA on the road is quite larger than the 2.94 ERA he posts at Citizens Bank Park.

Brian Johnson doesn’t usually go deep into games, and tonight probably won’t be much different. He’s only maxed out at five innings once this season and gone a total of 8 2/3 innings over the last three starts.

All in all, it’s wise to be skeptical of the line that has been placed in front us. Look for the Red Sox to get to Nola early and then hang some more runs on the Phils’ bullpen. These are two of the more dynamic offenses in baseball, and they’ll show us why this evening.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 9 – Philadelphia Phillies: 7

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Monday, August 5

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 186-136-8 (57.8%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 – Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
KC: Mike Montgomery – L (1-4, 6.34 ERA/1.77 WHIP)
BOS: Rick Porcello – R (9-8, 5.74 ERA/1.46 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge system has tons of love for the total going over on tonight’s Red Sox-Royals game, despite having a massive 11.5-run total. These two starting pitchers are a big reason why we’re heading in this direction, and it’s worth noting that Boston’s games have gone over the total in 17 of the last 23 while Kansas City’s have gone over the total in seven of the last nine.

Most of the runs are coming from the Red Sox tonight, plain and simple. Mike Montgomery takes the mound for the Royals, and this guy has allowed 18 hits and 10 runs in 11 1/3 innings since joining the team. Those totals could certainly increase tonight as Boston’s 7.2 IRT (implied run total) is the highest for any team on today’s entire schedule of games.

The Red Sox have been mashing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .387 weighted on-base average and .315 ISO (power metric) over the last 21 days. If that wasn’t enough, the Royals bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA in all of baseball this season.

Rick Porcello is the final piece to this puzzle, allowing at least four runs in six of his last seven starts – he allowed exactly six runs in four of his last six games (34 2/3 innings), and a total of 10 homers in that span. While KC’s offense isn’t exactly humming along at the moment, it should certainly have no problem posting a handful of runs against Porcello.

It’s quite interesting, but the Red Sox must know they have to be on their A-game offensively when Porcello is on the mound. And it makes perfect sense, considering they’ve scored a double-digit number of runs in five of his last six starts.

All in all, we’re looking for the Red Sox offense to be the catalyst in taking this total over the mark. But we’ve also got faith in the Royals to add some runs on the board here as well.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 12 – Kansas City Royals: 4

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, August 4

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 182-136-8 (57.4%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 9.5 – Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
BOS: David Price – L (7-4, 3.86 ERA/1.25 WHIP)
NYY: J.A. Happ – L (8-6, 5.19 ERA/1.34 WHIP)

The SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Bronx, where the Yankees will host the Red Sox. We like the total going over 9.5 runs, with plenty of reasons to think so.

David Price finally got his first win ever at Yankee Stadium earlier this season, but this place has been a house of horrors for him since joining the Red Sox. Price’s 1-6 record and 8.59 ERA/1.96 WHIP in seven starts there paints a nasty image, and his recent performances haven’t been much better. Over his last three starts (@BAL, @TB, vs. TB), Price has allowed 21 hits (5 HR) and 13 runs over a span of 14 1/3 innings.

J.A. Happ may have good numbers against these Red Sox hitters, but he’ll be going against a desperate team looking to avoid a four-game sweep. We fully expect the likes of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts to get it popping on offense, whether Boston wins or loses this game. We saw this scenario play out the opposite way last weekend when the Red Sox took the first three games before the Yankees put a beatdown on Chris Sale… again.

Happ has been getting hit hard over his last three starts (vs. COL, @ MIN, vs. ARZ), allowing 22 base-knocks (4 HR) and 11 runs over his last 14 1/3 innings.

It’s worth noting that both teams are absolutely crushing left-handed pitching over the last 21 days:

BOS: .374 weighted on-base average, .295 ISO
NYY: .355 weighted on-base average, .241 ISO

All in all, we’ve got a history of one pitcher struggling mightily in this ballpark and one desperate team looking to make some noise on offense. It’s a beautiful combination of riches that will lead to the total going over.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 8 – New York Yankees: 6

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Thursday, August 1

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 176-133-7 (57%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:10 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 – Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
TB: Brendan McKay – L (1-1, 3.72 ERA/1.03 WHIP)
BOS: Andrew Cashner – R (10-5, 4.18 ERA/1.26 WHIP)

Our SpreadKnowledge MLB Free Pick of the Day comes to us from the Rays-Red Sox game. We had the over in our three-game bundle pack last night, and we’ll be doing the same here once again.

Andrew Cashner has not lived up to the billing since donning the Red Sox uniform, allowing a total of 24 hits, five walks (1.64 WHIP) and 12 runs over 17 2/3 innings. Interestingly enough, all of those games came against AL East opponents (vs. TOR, @BAL, vs. NYY) and tonight’s matchup against the Rays will complete the divisional roundabout.

Things won’t get any easier, as Tampa Bay has scored 33 runs over its last four games, including a total of 14 in the first two games of this series in Boston.

Brendan McKay has truly been a mixed bag of outings, with two good starts and two that he’d probably like to forget about. Considering the Red Sox will be trying to avoid the sweep, you have to think they’ll put some runs on the board tonight, whether it’s a winning or losing effort.

After all, Boston is absolutely pounding left-handed pitching over the last 21 days, with massive .406 weighted on-base average and .313 ISO (power metric) numbers. Last night, it was the lefty Ryan Yarbrough that the Red Sox teed off on more than any other Rays pitcher.

All in all, we’re looking for both offenses to take advantage of the starting pitchers early and lead us right into the total going over. Vegas does have an interesting take on this game, giving the Rays a +0.3 IRT increase while the Red Sox get a -0.4 decrease. Playing the human card here, you have to believe Boston puts some runs on the board, but we’ll get crazy and give Tampa Bay the win to complete the sweep.

* Final Score Prediction * Tampa Bay Rays: 7 – Boston Red Sox: 6

MLB Free Pick of the Day for Sunday, July 28

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh
* 2019 MLB Record: 161-131-7 (55.1%) *
Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[7:05 p.m. EST] Under 10 – New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
NYY: Domingo German – R (12-2, 4.03 ERA/1.12 WHIP)
BOS: Chris Sale – L (5-9, 4.00 ERA/1.08 WHIP)

It’s a special treat for the SpreadKnowledge supporters, as tonight’s free pick comes to us from Sunday Night Baseball. We’ve seen these two teams slug it out against one another plenty of times lately, but this game is going to be quite different with two talented pitchers on the mound.

Vegas has put its stamp on the game by dropping the game total from 10.5 to 10.0, with both teams – Yankees: -0.4, Red Sox: -0.2 – having decreased IRTs (implied run totals) as well.

The Red Sox will be looking to complete the four-game sweep of the Yankees, and their opportunity is as good as any with Chris Sale on the mound. While it was a tough start to the season for the lanky lefty, he has been virtually unhittable over these last two starts, allowing only six hits and two runs over a span of 12 innings while striking out 22 batters.

While Sale hasn’t been great against the Yankees this season, he should have a much easier time tonight with Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton and Brett Gardner on the injured list – DJ LeMahieu could be out as well. It’s always an easy cop-out to say anyone “is due,” but with the Red Sox closing in on a four-game sweep and getting themselves back into the thick of the playoff picture, I’d expect Sale to be on top of his game.

Domingo German will be tasked with shutting down the hottest offense in baseball this week, and while I don’t think he can do it fully, he can minimize the damage. One constant from German is his ability to bounce back from a bad outing, and the Yankees will certainly need it, considering how bad their bullpen needs a break.

New York’s starting pitching has been getting absolutely teed off on over the last few games. That motivation of German correcting his own wrongs and giving the bullpen a breather could prove to be beneficial.

All in all, though, there’s too much firepower running hot in this Red Sox lineup and that’ll ultimately give them the edge at some point in this game. Look for Sale to shut down the Yanks, and lead us right into the total going under.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 6 – New York Yankees: 2

MLB Free Pick of the Day — Saturday, July 27

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 160-129-7 (55.4%) *

Hey, everyone! SpreadKnowledge is going with a new format for our free article/mailer from here on out. We’ve teamed up Covers and started posting our picks to their site — For our highest-rated picks, you can sign up here or at SpreadKnowledge.com.

We’ll be posting one pick here in this space each day for free. Know that it does have a high value, but it just won’t be the highest-rated one from the SK system. Continue to follow us along in this journey, because there are plenty of good things on the way!

[4:07 p.m. EST] Over 12 – New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
NYY: CC Sabathia – L (5-5, 5.40 ERA/1.34 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (12-4, 4.10 ERA/1.28 WHIP)

Vegas has already put its stamp on this game by raising the total from 11.0 to 12.0, with both teams – Red Sox: +0.7, Yankees: +0.3 – getting significant IRT (implied run total) increases.

The Red Sox (611) and Yankees (596) are actually the two highest-scoring teams in MLB this season, and it’s no surprise they’ve been most of this mashing against each other. In the last five meetings between the teams, they’ve combined for totals of 13, 30, 20, 22 and 15.

It looks like that old age is finally starting to catch up to CC Sabathia, and that regression has reared its head in an ugly way. The veteran lefty has now allowed seven homers over his last 17 innings of work while allowing a total of 13 runs (12 ER) over that span.

Also looking grim for Sabathia is the current state of this Red Sox offense, which owns a .377 weighted on-base average and .291 ISO (power metric) against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Good luck with all that, CC.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a fine pitcher, but there are more than enough capable Yankees bats that can make life difficult on him today. New York, like Boston, is hitting left-handed pitching well over the last 21 days, as evidenced by its .337 weighted on-base average and .247 ISO. E-Rod had the benefit of facing a couple of lesser teams during his recent run of good outings, but today will certainly have more difficulty attached to it.

All in all, we’re looking for the Red Sox offense to do some serious damage once again. 10 of the last 14 Red Sox games have gone over the total, while the last eight Yankees games have seen one of the teams score eight runs or more.

* Final Score Prediction * Boston Red Sox: 10 – New York Yankees: 6

MLB Betting Value Picks for Monday, June 24

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 119-103-4 (53.6%) *

[7:05 p.m. EST] Over 10 (-116) – New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
NYM: Steven Matz – L (5-5, 4.28 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
PHI: Zach Eflin – R (6-7, 2.83 ERA/1.16 WHIP)

This should be quite a game tonight, with both teams facing their own bouts of controversy. The Phils on a seven-game losing streak and the Mets dealing with yet another chaotic situation after Mickey Callaway and Jason Vargas almost came to blows with a reporter yesterday.

Nonetheless, the Phillies-Mets matchups at Citizens Bank Park tend to have plenty of runs scored – and it’s usually the Mets doing most of the damage. You just have to wonder when we’re going to see the Phils pick themselves back up off the floor. Getting swept over the weekend by the Marlins might just be the motivation they needed.

Zach Eflin had one start against the Mets so far this season and allowed four runs (three earned) over four innings. Lifetime against the Mets, Eflin has a 2-4 record with a 5.63 ERA/1.33 WHIP in eight starts.

Steven Matz has two starts against the Phis this season, with one great outing and the other one… ehhhh, not so much. Back on April 16, Matz didn’t even record an out before leaving the game, allowing eight runs (six earned) on two homers, four hits and a walk. In the outing that went well, which was actually his next start after getting whomped by the Phils, Matz allowed one run over six innings. Lifetime against the Phils, Matz is 1-3 with a 5.02 ERA/1.50 WHIP in seven starts.

Then there’s the issue of these bullpens. Over the last 14 days, the Phils’ pen has the second-worst xFIP (5.48) while the Mets own the fifth-worst (5.19). The advanced metric “xFIP” determines the quality of pitching that is independent of fielding – the higher the number, the worse they are.

It’s going to be a gorgeous evening in Philadelphia, with the wind blowing out slightly at 6 mph to center field, making it great hitting conditions at an extreme hitter’s ballpark.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – New York Mets: 7 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Under 9 (-116) – Chicago White Sox (ML: +150) at Boston Red Sox
CHW: Lucas Giolito – R (10-2, 2.74 ERA/1.02 WHIP)
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez – L (8-4, 4.71 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

The SK Trend Confidence rating has a very high B+ grade on both the White Sox and total going under in this game.

Granted, Lucas Giolito is coming off a rough outing against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, but I won’t hold it against him. That’s been a tough matchup for most pitchers, and especially for Giolito since coming to Chicago.

The kid’s metrics, which include a 30.9% K-rate and 14.6% swinging-strike rate, are absolutely fantastic. Over the last 30 days, Giolito’s 34.6% K-rate is fifth-best in MLB behind Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Walker Buehler. Thanks to that note from Brian Tulloch at FantasyCPR. All of you fantasy baseball fans, check out his article from today.

Giolito slipped up in his last outing and I fully expect him to get back on the dominant foot. Sure, the Red Sox are a tough matchup, but Giolito has 15 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings of work against them in his lifetime and only allowed one extra-base hit in 44 plate appearances against the current roster.

Eduardo Rodriguez is slowly starting to come around, and he too had a rough outing last time out against a tough Twins lineup. In most of E-Rod’s starts that he’s supposed to do well, he does. Even though it goes against the thinking of the White Sox winning tonight, E-Rod has an 18-2 record since the beginning of last season against teams with a losing record – it still means that he pitches well when he’s supposed to.

At the end of the day, Giolito is the more-dominant pitcher between the two and we’re getting a huge plus-money opportunity with him on the mound – especially when the Red Sox just struggled over the weekend with the lowly Blue Jays. E-Rod has allowed six homers over his last 25 1/3 innings of work, and that could ultimately be the difference.

* Final Score Prediction: Chicago White Sox: 4 – Boston Red Sox: 2 *

[8:05 p.m. EST] Over 11.5 (-108) – Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs
ATL: Julio Teheran – R (5-5, 3.40 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
CHC: Jon Lester – L (6-5, 4.13 ERA/1.35 WHIP)

Ohhh yes, take the over on this game and never look back. 15 mph winds are blowing out to center field with two solid offenses in great spots. Vegas has taken note of the extreme hitter’s conditions and elevated the IRTs for both teams – Cubs: +0.6, Braves: +0.4 – as well as the game total from 10.5 to 11.5.

Julio Teheran was on a nice run of outings, but the Mets abused him for eight hits and six runs to go along with three walks over four innings of work. Back on April 3, Teheran allowed nine baserunners against the Cubs but did manage to get out of that outing allowing only one run. With the conditions not in his favor tonight, some of those opportunities could turn into damage real quick.

The Cubs rank ninth in all of baseball in the power-metric ISO (.194) against right-handed pitching. Also, the Braves bullpen ranks 10th-worst in xFIP (4.78) over the last 14 days.

Jon Lester has been getting beat up with regularity, allowing seven or more hits in seven of the last nine outings. To make matters worse, one of the best hitting teams against left-handed pitching makes their way to Wrigley Field. Over the last 21 days, the Braves have a massive .441 xwOBA – the metric that is calculated by quality of contact. For reference, about .335 is average. A lot of those quality-contact balls should be flying over the ivy tonight

Hopefully, you’re watching this game since it’s on MLB TV tonight. You can miss the NBA awards show, I’ll fill you in on Twitter.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 12 – Chicago Cubs: 10 *  

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, June 22

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on  Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 117-99-4 (54.2%) *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Over 11 (-110) – Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
TOR: Derek Law – R (0-1, 5.16 ERA/1.59 WHIP)
BOS: Brian Johnson – L (10.00 ERA/2.67 WHIP)

These two teams have met seven times so this season, and the total has gone over in six of them – in the only misnomer, the total pushed at 10 runs. Not to mention, Blue Jays’ games have gone over the total in eight of the last 10, with one push mixed in there.

We’re going to see plenty of bullpen pitching today, and that’s a beautiful sign for the total going over. The Blue Jays’ bullpen owns the second-worst WHIP (1.66) and fifth-worst ERA (5.97) while the Red Sox’ actually owns the fourth-best ERA (3.11), but 10th-worst WHIP (1.41).

The one thing that sort of nullifies Boston’s bullpen ERA is that Brian Johnson will be starting the game. He has been atrocious this season in limited action, as seen by his massive 2.67 WHIP. In nine innings pitched this season, Johnson has allowed 18 hits (3 HR), six walks and 10 runs.

It’s to put much stock in this because we likely won’t see much of Johnson today, but Toronto has improved mightily against left-handed pitching, with a .358 wOBA and .229 ISO over the last 21 days.

It’s good to see the Red Sox offense getting back on track, scoring at least seven runs in six of their last eight games. Guys like Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers (he’s out of the lineup today, could still pinch hit late) have led the charge over this span, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez join in on the party against lesser pitching today.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 10 – Toronto Blue Jays: 8 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies (1.5-run line: +108)
MIA: Elieser Hernandez – R (0-2, 3.95 ERA/1.17 WHIP)
PHI: Vince Velasquez – R (2-4, 4.71 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

We’re not going with numbers on this one – straight gut.

After a dreadful performance on their recent road trip, and then again last night on Chase Utley Night, I fully expect this Phils team to break out in a major way tonight. They have lost nine of the last 11 games, including five straight – enough is enough.

Vince Velasquez should be highly motivated to give the Marlins plenty of fits today. The Phils have not been shy about needing help at the back of the rotation, and VV will be looking to give them a reason to not make a deal. Velasquez has been solid over his career against the Marlins, and their current roster owns a .167 batting average and .237 on-base percentage against him lifetime.

Elieser Hernandez takes the mound for Miami, and he’s been fairly effective in limited action this season. However, he does have a knack to getting beat up by left-handed bats and the Phils have no shortage of talent in that regard. Look for Bryce Harper, Jay Bruce and the red-hot Brad Miller to get Philly on the scoreboard early, thus leading the way to get into that Marlins bullpen which has the seventh-highest WHIP (1.48) in MLB over the last 14 days.

Once again, this is more of a gut call, in that this Phillies team is absolutely due for a win. With the Marlins being less of a power hitting team, those 12 mph winds blowing in from left field aren’t going to do them any favors.

* Final Score Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies: 8 – Miami Marlins: 3 *

[4:10 p.m. EST] Under 8.5 (-102) – Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
CIN: Luis Castillo – R (7-1, 2.26 ERA/1.11 WHIP)
MIL: Jhoulys Chacin – R (3-8, 5.60 ERA/1.52 WHIP)

I don’t understand the Brewers being favored in this game but it does lead me to believe that Jhoulys Chacin will finally have a good outing. Not to mention, the total going under has the highest grade in the SK Trend Confidence rating today, as Reds’ games have produced that result in 15 of the last 17 contests.

It was a positive sign for Chacin that he allowed only two runs and matched a season-high seven strikeouts in his last outing, a 2-0 loss at San Diego. He did pitch well against Cincy back on April 2, allowing only three hits, three walks and two runs while striking out six over 5 1/3 innings.

There’s also positive thinking in the fact that Chacin has much better numbers at Miller Park, as opposed to pitching on the road:

– Home: (5 starts) 2-1, 3.76 ERA/1.25 WHIP – .213 opposing batting average
– Away: (8 starts) 1-7, 6.94 ERA/1.71 WHIP – .295 opposing batting average

Luis Castillo doesn’t need any introduction, but I’ll give it to you anyway. Over his last 18 innings, the electric righty has allowed eights and four runs while striking out 21.

The knock, though, is that he’s allowed 12 walks in that span of innings. That could possibly be what Vegas possibly sees as the differentiator.

Nonetheless, Cincy’s bullpen is one of the best in baseball, and that’s a big reason why a lot of these totals have been going under.

* Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers: 4 – Cincinnati Reds: 2 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Sunday, June 16

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 108-90-4 (54.5%) *

[1:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (ML: +138)
BOS: Brian Johnson – L (1-0, 12.71 ERA/2.29 WHIP)
BAL: John Means – L (6-4, 2.60 ERA/1.10 WHIP)

After two straight games of being massive underdogs, the Orioles find themselves with a much more reasonable number today at +138. And for good reason, as John Means takes the mound for Bird Gang. The rookie southpaw has been simply fantastic at home, going 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA/0.90 WHIP and opposing batting average of .180 this season.

Means has been quite effective against Boston this season, allowing only two runs and a 0.66 WHIP in 12 innings – one start each at home and on the road. The Red Sox really haven’t been that great against lefty pitching and actually own an 8-13 in games where the opposition has a left-handed starter on the mound.

The Orioles have seen a lefty starter in each of the first two games of this series, so they are more than prepared to face Brian Johnson after going against Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale. Johnson will be making his first appearance since early April because of elbow inflammation, so there’s certainly a chance he could be rusty in his return.

Of course, we are running the risk of relying on the Orioles’ bullpen, which has been absolutely ripped to shreds in this series and all season. However, Means should be able to give them some wiggle room, and possibly even get a longer leash than usual to avoid the sweep.

* Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Orioles: 4 – Boston Red Sox: 3 *

[1:10 p.m. EST] St. Louis Cardinals (ML: -122/1.5-run line: +134) at New York Mets
STL: Dakota Hudson – R (5-3, 3.47 ERA/1.50 WHIP)
NYM: Jason Vargas – L (3-3, 3.68 ERA/1.36 WHIP)

It’s a good sign for the Cards, considering the IRTs are moving in opposite directions for these teams: Cardinals: +0.3, Mets: -0.3.

Whatever Dakota Hudson has been drinking or eating since mid-May, he definitely needs to keep it up. Hudson has now allowed two runs or fewer in each of the last five starts, including only one run in each of the last three. The Red Birds will also benefit from Jeff McNeil and Wilson Ramos getting the day off.

Jason Vargas looked human in his last start, and today’s matchup against St. Louis won’t be an easy one. A few of these guys have seen Vargas well over the course of their careers, including leadoff hitter Matt Carpenter, who is 6-for-7 against him lifetime. If Carp is getting on base with great regularity today, that’ll set the tone for the Cards’ lineup.

The 14 mph winds blowing out to right-center field will be a factor here as well. Hudson is an extreme ground-ball pitcher, which won’t affect him that much, while Vargas and his fly-ball ways could be playing with fire here.

I’d feel safer going with the Cards on the moneyline today, but I don’t mind hitting up that 1.5-run line at +134 since the team has won by two runs or more in Hudson’s last five starts.

* Final Score Prediction: St. Louis Cardinals: 6 – New York Mets: 2 *

[1:20 p.m. EST] Over 10.5 (-106) Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
PHI: Cole Irvin – L (2-1, 5.48 ERA/1.27 WHIP)
ATL: Mike Foltynewicz – R (6.02 ERA/1.32 WHIP)

Four of the five games in this season series have gone over the total – so what’s another one? Vegas likes that idea, as the IRTs have been increased for both sides (Braves: +0.4, Phillies: +0.2).

Cole Irvin had a nice feel-good story, getting the win in his MLB debut on Mother’s Day at Kansas City. Since then, there hasn’t been a whole lot to be excited about, but he has faced some difficult opponents in the Rockies, Cubs and Dodgers. Unfortunately, it doesn’t get any easier today, as the Braves own Top-10 numbers in most advanced metrics against left-handed pitching.

There’s not a ton of info on it just yet, but it looks like Vince Velasquez will start the game as the “opener” and then Irvin will come in behind. By the way, the current Braves’ roster owns a .362 batting average, .415 on-base percentage and .993 OPS lifetime against Velasquez.

Mike Foltynewicz goes for Atlanta and this has been a brutal start to 2019. Folty has been at his absolute worst in SunTrust Park this season, going 0-3 with a 7.18 ERA/1.40 WHIP and 11 homers allowed in 31 1/3 innings.

I’ll give the nod to the Braves today, considering J.T. Realmuto and Jay Bruce are out of the lineup. The Phils’ bullpen was outstanding last night, but they still have terrible numbers across the board this season, and completely blew the game on Friday.

All in all, we’re in a great position for runs today at an extreme hitter’s park with mediocre pitching (at best) and questionable bullpens.

* Final Score Prediction: Atlanta Braves: 8 – Philadelphia Phillies: 6 *

MLB Betting Value Picks for Saturday, June 15

By: Al Walsh – Follow him on Twitter @14AdotWalsh

* 2019 MLB Record: 106-89-4 (54.4%) *

 

[4:05 p.m. EST] Boston Red Sox (1.5-run line: -200) at Baltimore Orioles
BOS: Chris Sale – L (2-7, 3.52 ERA/0.96 WHIP)
BAL: Dylan Bundy – R (3-7, 4.50 ERA/1.23 WHIP)

The Orioles are a putrid 3-26 as a home underdog of +175 or more over the last two season. Yikes! That mark in the loss column is about to get bigger as Chris Sale takes the mound for the Red Sox. The lanky lefty is 7-2 with a 2.37 ERA/0.99 WHIP over his career when starting against the Orioles. There has been more success recently, as Sale has allowed one run or fewer in five of the last six starts against them.

Sale has been on top of his game recently, with at least 10 strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts. Just over a month ago, he dominated this same Bird Gang bunch, allowing one run over eight innings while striking out 14. Since this is a mid-day game the hitters might have to deal with some shadows, and that’ll make it nearly impossible to hit a pitcher like Sale. You should certainly give some thought to laying money on his 8.5 K-prop at -144 today.

Baltimore just struggled mightily last night against fellow lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, and now own less-than-stellar .309 xwOBA/.166 ISO numbers versus left-handed pitching over the last 21 days.

Dylan Bundy takes the mound for the Orioles and he does not have a great history against the opposition, going 3-7 with a 5.25 ERA/1.50 WHIP lifetime. The splits aren’t in his favor either, as Bundy is 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA at home and 0-5 with a 5.70 ERA in day-time starts.

Hopefully, Boston can rip Bundy early and get to the Baltimore bullpen. Their 9.13 ERA (highest in MLB) over the last seven days was inflated quite a bit after last night’s whooping.

The Red Sox look to have finally gotten back on the good foot offensively, scoring a total of 29 runs over the last four games. Mookie Betts should be back in the lineup after getting the night off – he has four career homers against Bundy.

It’s a ton of money to be laying on the 1.5-run line, but Boston loves it here in Baltimore, winning 16 of the last 18 meetings at Camden Yards.

* Final Score Prediction: Boston Red Sox: 7 – Baltimore Orioles: 1 *

[7:10 p.m. EST] Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (1.5-run line: -124)
KC: Glenn Sparkman – R (1-2, 3.58 ERA/1.30 WHIP)
MIN: Jake Odorizzi – R (9-2, 1.92 ERA/0.97 WHIP)

The Twins did it against last night, beating the weak and improving their mark to 28-10 this season against teams with a losing record. That number should go up some more as they put Jake Odorizzi on the mound. Minnesota has won the last 10 games that Odorizzi started, with eight of them coming by two runs or more.

It’s ridiculous to fathom the amount of success Odorizzi has produced this season. The veteran righty has started 13 games in 2019 – he’s allowed three runs or fewer in 12 of them, two runs or fewer in 11 of them, one run or fewer in eight of them, and no runs in six of them. Whoa!

KC’s offense has been sputtering quite a bit over the last 21 days against right-handed pitching, with an anemic .281 wOBA, .133 ISO and 24.7% K-rate. They’ve also scored three runs or fewer in five of the last six games, and two runs or fewer in four of the last six.

Glenn Sparkman starts for the Royals and his lack of ability to get strikeouts could very well get him in trouble against a potent Twins lineup. Minnesota has some of the best advanced-metrics in MLB this season, so I expect them to give Odorizzi more than enough run support in this game.

I mentioned this number last night, but it still resonates for this matchup – the Twins are 37-16 in games against right-handed starters while the Royals are 16-34. KC also owns the worst road record in baseball at 8-24.

* Final Score Prediction: Minnesota Twins: 7 – Kansas City Royals: 1 *

[9:07 p.m. EST] Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics (1.5-run line: -110)
SEA: Wade LeBlanc – L (3-2, 5.31 ERA/1.37 WHIP)
OAK: Frankie Montas – R (8-2, 2.84 ERA/1.18 WHIP)

For the grand finale of the evening, we’re taking it out West. The A’s are massive -230 favorites on the moneyline, which is actually their highest of the season. Rather than lay all of that money, we’ve got some nice trends in our favor to cut that in half by going with the 1.5-run line.

Frankie Montas is probably the best pitcher in baseball that no one knows about. He tied his season high of 10 strikeouts in his last outing and has notched at least nine of them in three of the last five starts. Not to mention, Montas has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season.

Wade LeBlanc goes for the Mariners, and he’ll be facing an A’s team that has a .405 wOBA and .229 ISO against left-handed pitching over the last 21 days. Particularly, it’s been the bottom of Oakland’s lineup doing most of the damage over that span, and it’s not like the top four hitters in its lineup (Semien, Chapman, Piscotty, Davis) are a bunch of slouches either. LeBlanc got hit around pretty well by them in his last meeting and I expect plenty of the same in this one.

If the A’s do get to LeBlanc early, their offense will have the benefit of facing a Mariners bullpen that has allowed the most runs (26) and the second-highest ERA (8.56) over the last seven days.

* Final Score Prediction: Oakland Athletics: 7 – Seattle Mariners: 3 *

 

<> Key terms used in today’s writing:

– ISO = Isolated Power (A sabermetric computation used to measure a player’s raw power. This distinguishes a batter with a .300 batting average and many singles, as opposed to a batter with a .300 average and more extra-base hits… typically, .200 is where you want to be in ISO.)

– wOBA = Weighted On-Base Average (A version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base. The value for each event is determined by how much it is worth in relation to a run created – Ex: a double is worth more than a single, a triple is worth more than a double, a home run is worth more than a triple, etc… about .320 is league average)

– xwOBA = Expected Weighted On-Base Average (The same thing as wOBA, just removing defense from the equation. An easy way of looking at xwOBA, would be to just imagine there are no fielders on the playing surface.)

– wRC+ = Weighted Runs Created Plus (Runs created + adjusting the number to account for important external factors – like ballpark or ERA… 100 is league average)